Asia Pacific Weekly
Feb 28 - Mar 7, 2018

This week we look at the new 25% US tariff on steel imports announced on 1 March, which we expect will have only a limited impact on the Asian steel sector. In the case of China – the region’s leading steel producer -- its direct steel exports to the US represented only 1% of its total exports, or 0.1% of its total steel production in the first nine months of 2017, while the reliance of Chinese steel companies on exports has also decreased substantially.  

We also examine the mid-year reviews of Australia’s seven states, which reveal materially higher levels of capital spending than in earlier budget projections and likely elevated debt levels over the next four years. This situation will leave the states vulnerable to risks such as higher-than-expected capital spending or recurring expenditure, or unforeseen falls in revenue.


IN THIS EDITION

Research »

Rating Events »

Announcements »

Moody's Events »

Moody's Training Seminars »

Contact Us »

Elsewhere, the 2017 results of Vietnamese banks show improved asset quality and profitability, but weakening capitalization – a trend we expect to continue through 2018. However, we do anticipate some divergence among the banks, as those with stronger capital buffers and lower asset risks will likely outperform other banks.

On the events front, we will host a briefing in Kuala Lumpur in two weeks titled Inside ASEAN – Spotlight on Malaysia, and a briefing in Tokyo the week after on Japan’s P&C insurance sector. And in case you missed it, you can still listen to a replay of our webcast on China’s shadow banking sector in both English and Putonghua.

Best regards,

MinYe

Min Ye
Managing Director – Regional Head Asia Pacific

To access the information within this email we ask that you register to Moodys.com. Registration is complimentary.

Research

Banks - Vietnam: 2017 results show widening divergence in asset quality and profitability performance
[6 Mar] We expect the banks will continue to improve their asset quality and profitability in 2018, while capitalization will further weaken.

Regional and Local Governments — Australia: Debt levels of states to remain elevated as capital spending rises
[5 Mar] High levels of debt, amid elevated infrastructure spending, is credit negative and increases the states’ vulnerability to risks such as higher-than-expected capital spending, recurring expenditure or unforeseen falls in revenue.

Securitization - China: Sector update, Q4 2017 -- Issuance up, led by RMBS
[28 Feb] Issuance of Chinese securitization transactions for all asset classes rose during Sep-Dec from a year ago, both in terms of number of deals and value, while loan performance was steady.

Sovereigns – Global: US tax reform will have marginal impact on exposed low-tax sovereigns globally
[28 Feb] Direct investment flows from the US into  low-tax countries are likely to fall, in some cases meaningfully, as a result of the US tax overhaul, which generally dis-incentivizes multinationals from keeping assets and operations in low-tax jurisdictions.

CLOs and RMBS - US, Europe and Australia : Heard from the market: Global structured finance conference 2018
[28 Feb] Regulatory developments in the Australian mortgage market, and how these have affected the composition of RMBS portfolios originated by both banks and non-bank lenders, were a key focus at the conference.

Steel & Specialty Metals: US trade remedies are credit negative but manageable for Asian steel makers
[21 Feb] The impact of the tariff would be manageable for the Asian steel sector and Moody's-rated steelmakers in the region, because exports to the US account for relatively small portions of their total steel production.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on 1 and 5 March

[5 Mar] Hong Kong’s voluntary health insurance scheme will encourage medical insurance growth, a credit positive for insurers; Suntec REIT’s potential debt-funded purchase of a larger stake in an Australian property is credit negative; China Railway Group wins light rail construction project in Israel, a credit positive.

[1 Mar] China allows first non-state-owned consumer credit bureau, a credit positive for retail loan asset quality; Electronic payments surged during Chinese New Year, a credit positive for Chinese banks; GAMCO CEO’s decision to waive 2018 compensation is credit positive.

Rating Events

AUSTRALIA
[2 Mar] Moody's affirms Fortescue's ratings; upgrades senior unsecured

BANGLADESH
[5 Mar] Moody's assigns first-time Ba3 ratings to BRAC Bank

CHINA
[5 Mar] Moody's assigns Baa1 to China Minmetals' proposed USD senior perpetual capital securities
[5 Mar] Moody's assigns Baa1 rating to proposed perpetual securities guaranteed by PowerChina
[2 Mar] Moody's assigns first-time B2 rating to Zhejiang Hengyi; outlook stable
[1 Mar] Moody's assigns definitive Aaa to OCBC's Series 3 mortgage covered bonds
[1 Mar] Moody's assigns provisional ratings to Dongfeng Nissan Auto Finance auto loan ABS in China: VINZ 2018-1 Retail Auto Loan Securitization Trust
[1 Mar] Moody's assigns B3 to Fantasia's proposed USD bonds; affirms its other ratings
[28 Feb] Moody's upgrades CR Gas to A3; outlook stable
[28 Feb] Moody's assigns Baa1 to Tianjin Rail Transit's proposed EUR bond

HONG KONG
[1 Mar] Moody's assigns A1 to Bank of China Hong Kong Branch's senior unsecured notes; outlook stable

INDIA
[7 Mar] Moody's upgrades Platinum Trust March 2017 to Baa2 (sf)
[6 Mar] Moody's upgrades 3 AUSFB-sponsored ABS in India
[6 Mar] Moody's upgrades JSW Steel to Ba2; outlook stable

JAPAN
[6 Mar] Moody's assigns provisional ratings to SB handset ABS transaction
[6 Mar] Moody's affirms Baa1 on Nomura America Finance, LLC's MTNs
[6 Mar] Moody's assigns provisional rating to Renor Master 1803 backed by installment sales receivables
[5 Mar] Moody's assigns a provisional rating to Auto Loan ABS Program 1803 Series
[1 Mar] Moody's assigns A1 to Mizuho's USD senior unsecured bonds
[1 Mar] Moody's assigns provisional ratings to SONIC backed by installment sales receivables
[1 Mar] Moody's assigns provisional rating to Ivy - 1803 backed by installment sales receivables

SINGAPORE
[2 Mar] Moody's assigns A3 to Ascendas REIT's MTN drawdown
[1 Mar] Moody's assigns definitive Aaa to UOB's Series 5 mortgage covered bonds

Announcements

AUSTRALIA
[28 Feb] Moody's comments on BOQ's Series 2008-1 REDS Trust after uplift

CHINA
[6 Mar] Moody's: CAR Inc.'s ratings unaffected by 2017 results
[6 Mar] Moody's: Sunac's expectation of material profit improvement for 2017 supports its ratings
[5 Mar] Moody's: Yanlord's 2017 results support its Ba2 rating
[5 Mar] Moody's: Tianqi Lithium's expectation of improved profit for 2017 supports its Baa3 rating
[5 Mar] Moody's: Shenzhen Expressway's ratings unaffected by announced toll discount on Coastal Expressway
[5 Mar] Moody's assigns first-time Baa3/P-3 ratings to Everbright Sun Hung Kai; outlook stable
[2 Mar] Moody's: Yestar's expectation of improved profit for 2017 supports its Ba3 rating
[1 Mar] Moody's: China Jinjiang's full year 2017 results within expectations; challenges remain
[28 Feb] Moody's: Logan Property's ratings unaffected by proposed senior notes

PHILIPPINES
[5 Mar] Moody's keeps Rizal Commercial Bank's USD EMTN program unchanged at (P)Baa2 following upsize

Moody's Events

Moody’s Global Teleconference/Webcast Series (APAC) - Moody's proposes introduction of a counterparty risk rating
Asia Pacific, 7 March

Moody’s 2018 Australian Credit Conference: Improving economy underpins all sectors, but rising rates and commodities could challenge some issuers
Sydney, 8 March

Moody’s Webcast – Project Finance Default and Recovery Performance
Asia Pacific, 8 March

Inside ASEAN – Spotlight on Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur), 21 March 2018
Kuala Lumpur, 21 March

Moody's Briefing: Japan’s P&C Insurance Sector: Trends and outlook
Tokyo, 29 March

Click below to access teleconference / webcast replay. (*Free registration is required)

Moody’s Webcast – Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk (P.T.): Behind the first-time B3 ratings

Moody’s Webcast - China's Shadow Banking Sector: Intensified regulation to constrain growth in 2018
English / Putonghua

Moody's Webcast - Global oil refining faces weakening demand, tighter regulation due to carbon transition

Moody’s Webcast - Dongling Group Inc. Co: Behind the first-time B2 corporate family and B3 bond ratings

Moody’s Webcast - Zhejiang Hengyi Group Co., Ltd: Behind the first-time B2 corporate family and B3 bond ratings

Moody's Training Seminars

HONG KONG
Advanced Financial Statement Analysis, 19-21 Mar
Enterprise Risk Management in Banks, 5-6 Apr
Problem Credits: Early Warning Signs and Effective Actions, 9-10 Apr
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 11-13 Apr
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 2-4 May
Corporate Debt Restructuring, 3-4 May
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 8-10 May
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 8-9 May
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 9-11 May
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 10-11 May
Covenants & Documentation, 4 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Jun
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 16-18 Jul
Counterparty Credit Risk, 14-15 Aug
Introduction to Derivatives, 16-17 Aug
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 16-17 Aug
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 29-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 10-12 Sep
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 9-11 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 29-31 Oct
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 31 Oct-2 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 1-2 Nov
Moody’s Project Finance Masterclass, 3-5 Dec

SINGAPORE
Advanced Financial Statement Analysis, 14-16 Mar
Moody’s Credit Masterclass, 19-23 Mar
Advanced High Yield Rating Analysis, 3-4 Apr
Counterparty Credit Risk, 3-4 Apr
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 16-17 Apr
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 18-20 Apr
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 23-26 Apr
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 26-27 Apr
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 2-4 May
Risk Culture Building, 12-13 Jun
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 12-14 Jun
Structured Finance, 20-22 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 16-17 Oct
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 18-19 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 19-21 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 22-23 Nov
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Covenants & Documentation, 30 Nov
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Dec

SYDNEY
Insurance Credit Analysis, 11-13 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 14-15 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 28-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 3-5 Sep
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 6-7 Sep
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 29-30 Nov

TOKYO
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 15-16 Mar
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 10-11 Apr

CONTACT US
Cynthia Zhao
Senior Vice President
North China - Beijing
+86.10.6319.6566
James Flitton
Vice President
Singapore
+65.6398.8338
Kelly Moy
Associate Managing Director
North Asia
+852.3758.1323
Maria Lee
Senior Vice President
South China - Hong Kong
+852.3758.1338
Yasushi Furuya
Vice President
Japan
+81.3.5408.4272
Vineet Gupta
Vice President
India
+91.750.625.0104
Asia Pacific Client Desk
Research & Subscriptions
+852.3551.3077
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