Asia Pacific Weekly
Mar 14 - 21, 2018

Earlier this month, at the National People’s Congress, China’s central government announced a 69% year-on-year increase in the issuance quota for regional and local government (RLG) special purposes bonds. In our report on this decision, we explain how it will boost the ability of RLGs to meet their capital spending needs and reduce their exposure to volatile land sales. Nevertheless, a significant gap remains between local infrastructure needs and the actual ability of RLGs to fund these needs.

Staying on China, the government on 5 March released its 2018 budget and fiscal outcomes for 2017.


IN THIS EDITION

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Based on this data, we estimate that China's fiscal impulse in 2018 will measure 4.4% of GDP, around the same as was budgeted by the authorities in 2017, after taking into account the issuance of special bonds by local governments and excluding various fund transfers. The country’s overall fiscal impulse remains sizeable, supporting GDP growth and leading to a gradual increase in government debt.

We also published our outlook for Korean non-financial corporates, with a healthy operating performance, steady global economic growth and low oil prices supporting stable credit quality for most sectors. However, the auto and retail sectors will continue to face pressure from intense competition. Our webcast tomorrow on the report will discuss our expectations for the various sector in more detail.

We will also host a briefing on Japan’s property and casualty insurance sector next week in Tokyo. And in case you missed it, you can still listen to a replay of our webcast on Zhengzhou Zhongrui Industrial Group Co., Ltd. – a private enterprise engaged in coal solution and property development - here.

Best regards,

MinYe

Min Ye
Managing Director – Regional Head Asia Pacific

To access the information within this email we ask that you register to Moodys.com. Registration is complimentary.

Research

Regional & Local Governments – China: Higher borrowing limit in 2018 is positive, but significant funding gap remains
[19 Mar] A 69% increase in the RLGs' issuance quota for special purpose bonds will boost the ability to RLGs to meet capital spending needs and reduce their exposure to volatile land sales.

Government of China: Fiscal impulse larger than headline deficit but likely tighter spending in broader public sector
[16 Mar] China's fiscal impulse in 2018 will measure 4.4% of GDP, around the same as was budgeted by the authorities in 2017, after taking into account the issuance of special bonds by local governments and excluding various fund transfers.

Non-financial companies - Korea: Stable credit quality supported by healthy operating performance for most sectors (Presentation)
[15 Mar] Moody's-rated companies in Korea will demonstrate broadly steady financial leverage in 2018, due to their healthy earnings and manageable capital spending.

Regional & Local Governments – China: Q4 2017 Debt and Finances Update
[15 Mar] Regional and local governments in China achieved their targets on all major economic and fiscal metrics in 2017, resulting in a stable economic and fiscal performance.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on 15 and 19 March

[19 Mar] China prepares to boost banks’ capitalization, a credit positive; Russia’s measures to fight fraudulent banking activity are credit positive; Metrobank’s planned rights issuance is credit positive; Prudential’s demerger will limit diversification, but capital generation will remain strong.

[15 Mar] For Indonesian coal producers, price cap on domestic coal sales to electric utilities is credit negative; Emirates NBD’s planned rights issuance would be credit positive; Agricultural Bank of China plans to increase capital with RMB100 billion private share placement, a credit positive.

Rating Events

AUSTRALIA
[19 Mar] Moody's affirms Wesfarmers' A3 ratings; outlook stable
[19 Mar] Moody's upgrades Wyuna Water's senior secured ratings to A1, assigns a definitive A1 rating to its proposed senior secured notes; outlook stable
[16 Mar] Moody's assigns definitive Aaa to NAB's Series 30, 31 and 32 mortgage covered bonds
[15 Mar] Moody's assigns provisional ratings to Pepper's first non-conforming and prime RMBS transaction for 2018

CHINA
[19 Mar] Moody's assigns A1 ratings to China Eastern Airlines' credit enhanced bonds
[19 Mar] Moody's assigns A3 to Baidu's proposed senior notes, outlook stable
[16 Mar] Moody's affirms Wanhua Chemical's Baa3 ratings; changes outlook to positive
[16 Mar] Moody's assigns Baa3 issuer rating to Nexteer, withdraws CFR and upgrades bond rating
[14 Mar] Moody's revises Baidu's ratings outlook to stable from negative

INDIA
[15 Mar] Moody's assigns Baa2 to HDFC Bank's proposed masala bonds

INDONESIA
[20 Mar] Moody's downgrades Matahari Putra Prima to B2, changes outlook to negative

JAPAN
[20 Mar] Moody's affirms Japan Tobacco's ratings; changes outlook to negative
[20 Mar] Moody's assigns definitive rating to Ivy - 1803 backed by installment sales receivables
[19 Mar] Moody's assigns a provisional rating to repackaged notes of US CLO: Class A Notes issued by GC Repackaging 2018-2 Ltd.
[16 Mar] Moody's affirms Asahi Group Holdings' Baa2 ratings; changes outlook to positive
[16 Mar] Moody's assigns provisional ratings to Absolute Master 1803 backed by auto loan receivables
[16 Mar] Moody's upgrades two classes of bonds from Prime Estate Alpha apartment loan securitization
[16 Mar] Moody's assigns definitive rating to ROSE backed by installment sales receivables
[15 Mar] Moody's affirms Daishi Bank's A2 rating; changes outlook to negative
[14 Mar] Moody's affirms Chugoku Bank's A1 ratings; changes outlook to negative
KOREA

KOREA
[19 Mar] Moody's revises outlook on SR Co's A2 rating to positive from stable
[19 Mar] Moody's affirms ratings of Industrial Bank of Korea

MONGOLIA
[16 Mar] Moody's assigns first-time B3 ratings to Mongolian Mortgage Corporation HFC LLC

SINGAPORE
[20 Mar] Moody's assigns Baa1 rating to MCT's MTN drawdown
[14 Mar] Moody's assigns definitive Aaa to OCBC's Series 4 mortgage covered bonds

Announcements

AUSTRALIA
[19 Mar] Moody's: No rating impact on HBS Trust 2008-1R after collateral substitution
[14 Mar] Moody's comments on EdSec Funding Trust No. 1 Repo Series No. 1 after uplift

CHINA
[15 Mar] Moody's: Longyuan's 2017 results support its A3 issuer rating

HONG KONG
[16 Mar] Moody's: Swire Pacific's moderate 2017 results in line with expectations

INDONESIA
[15 Mar] Moody's: PGN's ratings are not affected by impending change in ownership

Moody's Events

Moody’s Webcast: Non-financial companies – Korea
Asia Pacific, 22 March

Inside ASEAN – Spotlight on Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur), 21 March 2018
Kuala Lumpur, 21 March

ASIFMA Conference: Capital Markets – Connecting China and the World
Beijing, 27 March

Euromoney’s China Debt Capital Markets Summit 2018
Beijing, 28 March

Moody's Briefing: Japan’s P&C Insurance Sector: Trends and outlook
Tokyo, 29 March

Click below to access teleconference / webcast replay. (*Free registration is required)

Moody’s Webcast - Zhengzhou Zhongrui Industrial Group Co., Ltd.

Moody's Training Seminars

HONG KONG
Advanced Financial Statement Analysis, 19-21 Mar
Enterprise Risk Management in Banks, 5-6 Apr
Problem Credits: Early Warning Signs and Effective Actions, 9-10 Apr
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 11-13 Apr
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 2-4 May
Corporate Debt Restructuring, 3-4 May
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 8-10 May
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 8-9 May
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 9-11 May
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 10-11 May
Covenants & Documentation, 4 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Jun
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 16-18 Jul
Counterparty Credit Risk, 14-15 Aug
Introduction to Derivatives, 16-17 Aug
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 16-17 Aug
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 29-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 10-12 Sep
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 9-11 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 29-31 Oct
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 31 Oct-2 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 1-2 Nov
Moody’s Project Finance Masterclass, 3-5 Dec

SINGAPORE
Moody’s Credit Masterclass, 19-23 Mar
Advanced High Yield Rating Analysis, 3-4 Apr
Counterparty Credit Risk, 3-4 Apr
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 16-17 Apr
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 18-20 Apr
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 23-26 Apr
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 26-27 Apr
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 2-4 May
Risk Culture Building, 12-13 Jun
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 12-14 Jun
Structured Finance, 20-22 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 16-17 Oct
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 18-19 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 19-21 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 22-23 Nov
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Covenants & Documentation, 30 Nov
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Dec

SYDNEY
Insurance Credit Analysis, 11-13 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 14-15 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 28-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 3-5 Sep
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 6-7 Sep
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 29-30 Nov

TOKYO

Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 15-16 Mar
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 10-11 Apr

CONTACT US
Cynthia Zhao
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North China - Beijing
+86.10.6319.6566
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Kelly Moy
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+852.3758.1323
Maria Lee
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+852.3758.1338
Yasushi Furuya
Vice President
Japan
+81.3.5408.4272
Vineet Gupta
Vice President
India
+91.750.625.0104
Asia Pacific Client Desk
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