Asia Pacific Weekly
April 11 - 18, 2018

This week we published a report on the impact of Japan’s aging population on a range of sectors. The proportion of the country’s population aged 65 and older is set to climb to 30% by 2030, making it the oldest country in the world, and this demographic trend implies a shrinking work force, limited prospects for real GDP growth, declining household savings rates, a narrowing tax base, and rising welfare spending.

With China, we take a further look on the impact of proposed US tariffs on China’s exports and economy, and find that the direct effect – viewed as limited -- is likely to underestimate the full extent of the overall impact as the knock-on effects need to be assessed.


IN THIS EDITION

Research »

Rating Events »

Moody's Events »

Moody's Training Seminars »

Contact Us »

We also published a global report on the potential impact of evolving blockchain technology on banks. Specifically, the technology has the potential to significantly reduce the costs and time involved in cross-border banking transactions, increasing efficiency among the banks, but putting pressure on their fees and commissions.

On the events front, we will host a briefing on 24 April in Hong Kong on the China and Hong Kong property sectors, and on 26 April in Singapore on the China and Indonesia property sectors.

Best regards,

MinYe

Min Ye
Managing Director – Regional Head Asia Pacific

To access the information within this email we ask that you register to Moodys.com. Registration is complimentary.

Research

Cross-Sector - Malaysia: Heard from the Market: Trade restrictions, tighter funding conditions are top risks
[17 Apr] Moody’s base case view that global and regional credit conditions will be broadly stable in the near term was shared by 63% of the participants at Moody’s recently held fourth annual Inside ASEAN - Spotlight on Malaysia conference.

Securities Companies – China: Operating risk remains high in stock pledged lending business, despite more regulations
[16 Apr] Despite new regulations introduced in March that will help slow growth in this business, some key risks remain unaddressed and will leave securities companies exposed to potential large losses.

Banking - Global: Blockchain efficiencies could streamline transactions but reduce banks' fee income
[16 Apr] Blockchain technology has the potential to significantly reduce the costs and time involved in cross-border banking transactions, increasing banks' efficiency but putting pressure on their fees and commissions.

Structured finance - China: Securitization is growing as a funding source for the economy
[12 Apr] While the contribution to the real economy remains small compared to the US and European markets, China’s securitization market grew at a CAGR of 121% over 2012-2017.

ABS - India : Economic pick-up is positive, but GST will continue to weigh on SME ABS
[12 Apr] The pick-up in economic growth will support the ability of borrowers to earn income and repay their loans.

RMBS - Australia: Mortgage delinquency map - Home loan arrears will increase moderately on housing slowdown
[12 Apr] The proportion of Australian residential mortgages that were more than 30 days in arrears dropped to 1.45% in November 2017 from 1.52% in November 2016, but we expect will rise this year as the housing market softens.

Trade - China: Tech most exposed to US tariffs; supply chains to amplify effect on other sectors
[11 Apr] Trade has made a smaller contribution to China's GDP growth in recent years and, combined with a changing trade structure, China's direct vulnerability to potential trade shocks has declined.

Cross-Sector: Aging population poses near-term and long-term credit challenges
[11 Apr] The aging population implies a shrinking work force, limited prospects for real GDP growth, declining household savings rates, a narrowing tax base and rising welfare spending.

Inside Japan: April 2018
[11 Apr] Our bi-annual compendium includes recent key research and commentaries published, as well as a list of recent major actions in Japan.

Covenants – Asia: Q1 covenant quality only just moves off its all-time weakest level
[11 Apr] Overall, covenant protection for Asian bonds has weakened from 2011, with only 36% of bonds falling in the strong and good categories in Q1 compared to 82% in 2011, while 21% of bonds fell into the weak category compared to only 5% in 2011.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on 12 and 16 April

[16 Apr] China’s plan to ease auto import tariffs and foreign-ownership rules would benefit dealers, but pose risks to automakers; For China’s financial guarantors, supplemental rules to regulations are credit positive; State Bank of Pakistan prohibits banks from dealing in virtual currencies, a credit positive.

[12 Apr] Pakistan’s tax-amnesty scheme would relieve fiscal and external pressures; Samsung Securities’ erroneous dividend payout signals lapsed internal controls, a credit negative; Novartis’ $8.7 billion acquisition of AveXis will reduce its cash and capacity for further M&A.

Rating Events

AUSTRALIA
[13 Apr] Moody's assigns definitive ratings to Prospa's Australian small business loan ABS trust
[12 Apr] Moody's assigns definitive ratings to La Trobe Financial's first non-conforming and prime RMBS transaction for 2018

CHINA
[17 Apr] Moody's assigns first-time Baa2/P-2 deposit ratings to Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank
[17 Apr] Moody's assigns A1 ratings to State Grid's guaranteed MTN drawdown
[17 Apr] Moody's assigns Baa3 rating to Yuexiu REIT's MTN drawdown
[16 Apr] Moody's upgrades Golden Eagle Retail's CFR to Ba3, outlook positive
[16 Apr] Moody's assigns B1 to Central China Real Estate's proposed USD bonds
[16 Apr] Moody's assigns Ba3 to Yanlord's proposed USD notes
[16 Apr] Moody's assigns B3 to Sunac's proposed USD notes
[16 Apr] Moody's assign B3 to Jingrui's proposed USD notes
[13 Apr] Moody's assigns Baa1 to China Overseas Land & Investment's proposed senior notes
[12 Apr] Moody's upgrades Times China's corporate family rating to Ba3; outlook stable
[12 Apr] Moody's upgrades Yanzhou Coal to Ba3; outlook stable
[12 Apr] Moody's upgrades Jingrui's corporate family rating to B2; outlook stable
[12 Apr] Moody's upgrades Anton to B2; outlook remains positive
[12 Apr] Moody's assigns B1 to CIFI's proposed USD senior unsecured notes
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns Baa2 to China Vanke's MTN drawdown
[11 Apr] Moody's upgrades Future Land Development to Ba2; outlook stable
[11 Apr] Moody's upgrades Future Land Holdings to Ba2; outlook stable
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns first-time B1 rating to China Hongqiao Group; outlook stable
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns A1 to senior unsecured notes of Bank of China's three branches; outlook stable
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns B3 to Landsea Green Group's proposed USD bond

INDONESIA
[17 Apr] Moody's assigns (P)Baa2 rating to Indonesia's new shelf programme and definitive Baa2 rating to planned drawdowns under the programme
[17 Apr] Moody's affirms MNC Investama's Caa3 corporate family rating; outlook negative
[16 Apr] Moody's upgrades Sritex's CFR to Ba3; outlook stable
[16 Apr] Moody's assigns B2 ratings to Alam Sutera's proposed bonds
[13 Apr] Moody's upgrades ratings for five Indonesian infrastructure issuers following Indonesia's sovereign rating upgrade
[13 Apr] Moody's upgrades ratings of nine Indonesian financial institutions to Baa2
[13 Apr] Moody's upgrades Pertamina to Baa2 and affirms ratings of Telkom and WIKA following sovereign upgrade
[13 Apr] Moody's upgrades Indonesia's rating to Baa2, changes outlook to stable
[11 Apr] Moody's reviews Lippo Karawaci's B1 ratings for downgrade

JAPAN
[16 Apr] Moody's assigns Ba1 to SoftBank's proposed senior notes
[16 Apr] Moody's upgrades ORIX to A3; outlook stable
[13 Apr] Moody's assigns a definitive rating to Auto Loan ABS Program 1804 Series
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns Baa2 rating to Marubeni's US dollar bonds
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns P-2 rating to Sony Capital Corporation's US CP Programme

MONGOLIA
[16 Apr] Moody's upgrades local currency deposit ratings of Golomt Bank and Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia to B3; concludes review
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns B3 to Mongolian Mortgage Corporation HFC LLC's USD-denominated senior unsecured bonds

PHILIPPINES
[13 Apr] Moody's assigns (P)Baa2 to Philippine National Bank's EMTN program

SINGAPORE
[17 Apr] Moody's assigns Aa1 to UOB's USD fixed and floating rate senior notes

VIETNAM
[11 Apr] Moody's affirms Vinacomin's B3 rating

Moody's Events

Moody’s Briefing – China and Hong Kong Property Briefing
Hong Kong, 24 April

Moody's Briefing – China and Indonesia Property Briefing
Singapore, 26 April

Moody's Islamic Finance Briefing
Kuala Lumpur, 8 May

Moody's and ICRA India Securitization Conference
Mumbai, 15 May

Moody’s and ICRA 4th Annual India Credit Conference
Mumbai, 7 June 2018

Click below to access teleconference / webcast replay. (*Free registration is required)

Moody’s Webcast – Indonesia sovereign rating upgrade

Moody's Training Seminars

HONG KONG
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 2-4 May
Corporate Debt Restructuring, 3-4 May
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 8-10 May
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 8-9 May
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 9-11 May
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 10-11 May
Covenants & Documentation, 4 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Jun
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 16-18 Jul
Counterparty Credit Risk, 14-15 Aug
Introduction to Derivatives, 16-17 Aug
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 16-17 Aug
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 29-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 10-12 Sep
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 9-11 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 29-31 Oct
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 31 Oct-2 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 1-2 Nov
Moody’s Project Finance Masterclass, 3-5 Dec

SINGAPORE
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 18-20 Apr
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 23-26 Apr
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 26-27 Apr
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 2-4 May
Risk Culture Building, 12-13 Jun
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 12-14 Jun
Structured Finance, 20-22 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 16-17 Oct
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 18-19 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 19-21 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 22-23 Nov
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Covenants & Documentation, 30 Nov
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Dec

SYDNEY
Insurance Credit Analysis, 11-13 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 14-15 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 28-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 3-5 Sep
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 6-7 Sep
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 29-30 Nov

CONTACT US
Cynthia Zhao
Senior Vice President
North China - Beijing
+86.10.6319.6566
James Flitton
Vice President
Singapore
+65.6398.8338
Kelly Moy
Associate Managing Director
North Asia
+852.3758.1323
Maria Lee
Senior Vice President
South China - Hong Kong
+852.3758.1338
Yasushi Furuya
Vice President
Japan
+81.3.5408.4272
Vineet Gupta
Vice President
India
+91.750.625.0104
Asia Pacific Client Desk
Research & Subscriptions
+852.3551.3077
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