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This week we published a report on the impact of Japan’s aging population on a range of sectors. The proportion of the country’s population aged 65 and older is set to climb to 30% by 2030, making it the oldest country in the world, and this demographic trend implies a shrinking work force, limited prospects for real GDP growth, declining household savings rates, a narrowing tax base, and rising welfare spending.
With China, we take a further look on the impact of proposed US tariffs on China’s exports and economy, and find that the direct effect – viewed as limited -- is likely to underestimate the full extent of the overall impact as the knock-on effects need to be assessed. |
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Research
Cross-Sector - Malaysia: Heard from the Market: Trade restrictions, tighter funding conditions are top risks
[17 Apr] Moody’s base case view that global and regional credit conditions will be broadly stable in the near term was shared by 63% of the participants at Moody’s recently held fourth annual Inside ASEAN - Spotlight on Malaysia conference.
Securities Companies – China: Operating risk remains high in stock pledged lending business, despite more regulations
[16 Apr] Despite new regulations introduced in March that will help slow growth in this business, some key risks remain unaddressed and will leave securities companies exposed to potential large losses.
Banking - Global: Blockchain efficiencies could streamline transactions but reduce banks' fee income
[16 Apr] Blockchain technology has the potential to significantly reduce the costs and time involved in cross-border banking transactions, increasing banks' efficiency but putting pressure on their fees and commissions.
Structured finance - China: Securitization is growing as a funding source for the economy
[12 Apr] While the contribution to the real economy remains small compared to the US and European markets, China’s securitization market grew at a CAGR of 121% over 2012-2017.
ABS - India : Economic pick-up is positive, but GST will continue to weigh on SME ABS
[12 Apr] The pick-up in economic growth will support the ability of borrowers to earn income and repay their loans.
RMBS - Australia: Mortgage delinquency map - Home loan arrears will increase moderately on housing slowdown
[12 Apr] The proportion of Australian residential mortgages that were more than 30 days in arrears dropped to 1.45% in November 2017 from 1.52% in November 2016, but we expect will rise this year as the housing market softens.
Trade - China: Tech most exposed to US tariffs; supply chains to amplify effect on other sectors
[11 Apr] Trade has made a smaller contribution to China's GDP growth in recent years and, combined with a changing trade structure, China's direct vulnerability to potential trade shocks has declined.
Cross-Sector: Aging population poses near-term and long-term credit challenges
[11 Apr] The aging population implies a shrinking work force, limited prospects for real GDP growth, declining household savings rates, a narrowing tax base and rising welfare spending.
Inside Japan: April 2018
[11 Apr] Our bi-annual compendium includes recent key research and commentaries published, as well as a list of recent major actions in Japan.
Covenants – Asia: Q1 covenant quality only just moves off its all-time weakest level
[11 Apr] Overall, covenant protection for Asian bonds has weakened from 2011, with only 36% of bonds falling in the strong and good categories in Q1 compared to 82% in 2011, while 21% of bonds fell into the weak category compared to only 5% in 2011.
Moody’s Credit Outlook on 12 and 16 April
[16 Apr] China’s plan to ease auto import tariffs and foreign-ownership rules would benefit dealers, but pose risks to automakers; For China’s financial guarantors, supplemental rules to regulations are credit positive; State Bank of Pakistan prohibits banks from dealing in virtual currencies, a credit positive.
[12 Apr] Pakistan’s tax-amnesty scheme would relieve fiscal and external pressures; Samsung Securities’ erroneous dividend payout signals lapsed internal controls, a credit negative; Novartis’ $8.7 billion acquisition of AveXis will reduce its cash and capacity for further M&A. |
Rating Events
Moody's Events
Moody’s Briefing – China and Hong Kong Property Briefing
Hong Kong, 24 April
Moody's Briefing – China and Indonesia Property Briefing
Singapore, 26 April
Moody's Islamic Finance Briefing
Kuala Lumpur, 8 May
Moody's and ICRA India Securitization Conference
Mumbai, 15 May
Moody’s and ICRA 4th Annual India Credit Conference
Mumbai, 7 June 2018
Click below to access teleconference / webcast replay. (*Free registration is required)
Moody’s Webcast – Indonesia sovereign rating upgrade |
Moody's Training Seminars
HONG KONG
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 2-4 May
Corporate Debt Restructuring, 3-4 May
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 8-10 May
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 8-9 May
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 9-11 May
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 10-11 May
Covenants & Documentation, 4 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Jun
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 16-18 Jul
Counterparty Credit Risk, 14-15 Aug
Introduction to Derivatives, 16-17 Aug
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 16-17 Aug
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 29-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 10-12 Sep
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 9-11 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 29-31 Oct
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 31 Oct-2 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 1-2 Nov
Moody’s Project Finance Masterclass, 3-5 Dec
SINGAPORE
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 18-20 Apr
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 23-26 Apr
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 26-27 Apr
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 2-4 May
Risk Culture Building, 12-13 Jun
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 12-14 Jun
Structured Finance, 20-22 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 16-17 Oct
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 18-19 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 19-21 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 22-23 Nov
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Covenants & Documentation, 30 Nov
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Dec
SYDNEY
Insurance Credit Analysis, 11-13 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 14-15 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 28-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 3-5 Sep
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 6-7 Sep
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 29-30 Nov |
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MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY200,000 to approximately JPY350,000,000.
MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements. |
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