China Credit Weekly
April 11 - 18, 2018

This week we report on regulations introduced last March for the stock-pledged lending businesses of Chinese securities companies. While the new measures have contributed to slowing growth in this business, some key risks remain unaddressed that will leave securities companies exposed to potential large losses.

We also take a further look on the impact of proposed US tariffs on China’s exports and economy, and find that the direct effect – viewed as limited -- is likely to underestimate the full extent of the overall impact as the knock-on effects need to be assessed.


IN THIS EDITION

Research »

Rating Events and Announcements »

Moody's Events »

Contacts »

Further, we see a growing role for securitization as a source of funding for China’s economy. While its contribution to the real economy remains, small compared to the US and European markets, China’s securitization market grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 121% over 2012-2017.

On the events front, we will host a briefing on 24 April in Hong Kong on the China and Hong Kong property sectors, and on 26 April in Singapore on the China and Indonesia property sectors.

Best regards,

MinYe

Min Ye
Managing Director – Regional Head Asia Pacific

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Research

Securities Companies – China: Operating risk remains high in stock pledged lending business, despite more regulations
[16 Apr] Despite new regulations introduced in March that will help slow growth in this business, some key risks remain unaddressed and will leave securities companies exposed to potential large losses.

Banking - Global: Blockchain efficiencies could streamline transactions but reduce banks' fee income
[16 Apr] Blockchain technology has the potential to significantly reduce the costs and time involved in cross-border banking transactions, increasing banks' efficiency but putting pressure on their fees and commissions.

Structured finance - China: Securitization is growing as a funding source for the economy
[12 Apr] While the contribution to the real economy remains small compared to the US and European markets, China’s securitization market grew at a CAGR of 121% over 2012-2017.

Trade - China: Tech most exposed to US tariffs; supply chains to amplify effect on other sectors
[11 Apr] Trade has made a smaller contribution to China's GDP growth in recent years and, combined with a changing trade structure, China's direct vulnerability to potential trade shocks has declined.

Covenants – Asia: Q1 covenant quality only just moves off its all-time weakest level
[11 Apr] Overall, covenant protection for Asian bonds has weakened from 2011, with only 36% of bonds falling in the strong and good categories in Q1 compared to 82% in 2011, while 21% of bonds fell into the weak category compared to only 5% in 2011.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on 12 and 16 April

[16 Apr] China’s plan to ease auto import tariffs and foreign-ownership rules would benefit dealers, but pose risks to automakers; For China’s financial guarantors, supplemental rules to regulations are credit positive; State Bank of Pakistan prohibits banks from dealing in virtual currencies, a credit positive.

[12 Apr] Pakistan’s tax-amnesty scheme would relieve fiscal and external pressures; Samsung Securities’ erroneous dividend payout signals lapsed internal controls, a credit negative; Novartis’ $8.7 billion acquisition of AveXis will reduce its cash and capacity for further M&A.

Rating Events and Announcements

[17 Apr] Moody's assigns first-time Baa2/P-2 deposit ratings to Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank
[17 Apr] Moody's assigns A1 ratings to State Grid's guaranteed MTN drawdown
[17 Apr] Moody's assigns Baa3 rating to Yuexiu REIT's MTN drawdown
[16 Apr] Moody's upgrades Golden Eagle Retail's CFR to Ba3, outlook positive
[16 Apr] Moody's assigns B1 to Central China Real Estate's proposed USD bonds
[16 Apr] Moody's assigns Ba3 to Yanlord's proposed USD notes
[16 Apr] Moody's assigns B3 to Sunac's proposed USD notes
[16 Apr] Moody's assign B3 to Jingrui's proposed USD notes
[13 Apr] Moody's assigns Baa1 to China Overseas Land & Investment's proposed senior notes
[12 Apr] Moody's upgrades Times China's corporate family rating to Ba3; outlook stable
[12 Apr] Moody's upgrades Yanzhou Coal to Ba3; outlook stable
[12 Apr] Moody's upgrades Jingrui's corporate family rating to B2; outlook stable
[12 Apr] Moody's upgrades Anton to B2; outlook remains positive
[12 Apr] Moody's assigns B1 to CIFI's proposed USD senior unsecured notes
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns Baa2 to China Vanke's MTN drawdown
[11 Apr] Moody's upgrades Future Land Development to Ba2; outlook stable
[11 Apr] Moody's upgrades Future Land Holdings to Ba2; outlook stable
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns first-time B1 rating to China Hongqiao Group; outlook stable
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns A1 to senior unsecured notes of Bank of China's three branches; outlook stable
[11 Apr] Moody's assigns B3 to Landsea Green Group's proposed USD bond

Moody's Events

Moody’s Briefing – China and Hong Kong Property Briefing
Hong Kong, 24 April

Moody's Briefing – China and Indonesia Property Briefing
Singapore, 26 April

CONTACTS
Jenny Shi (史季)
Managing Director
Country Manager China
+86.10.6319.6588
Cynthia Zhao (赵欣)
SVP-Head of Relationship Mgmt
Beijing
+86.10.6319.6566
Maria Lee (李颂文)
SVP-Head of Relationship Mgmt
Hong Kong
+852.3758.1338
Asia Pacific Client Desk
Research & Subscriptions
+852.3551.3077
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