Default Trends and Rating Transitions
This page provides a central resource for Moody’s research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies.
  • 摘要
  • 报告

    08 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Three rated companies globally defaulted in January, significantly lower than the 15 defaults recorded in December, and the trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate edged down to 6.7% from 6.8%. Our Credit Transition Model now forecasts that the default rate will fall to 4.2% by the end of the year on expectations of continued economic recovery.

    28 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Oil and gas, retail, and business services had the most defaults in 2020. We expect the trailing 12-month global corporate speculative-grade default rate to peak at 7.3% in March, then decline to 4.7% by year-end. If these forecasts crystalize, the pandemic-induced default cycle will be relatively mild compared with prior recessionary default cycles, when peaks ranged from 9.7% to 13.3%.
    25 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The fundamental credit quality of low-rated companies will remain strained, particularly in sectors that the pandemic has hurt the most. The reliance on additional liquidity likely will persist this year for those companies confronting looming debt maturities as they try to stave off default.

    10 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We downgraded the ratings of 13 companies to speculative grade from investment grade in Q3, down from 23 in Q2 and 25 in Q1. In Q3, we also upgraded the ratings of four companies to investment grade from speculative grade.

    Kumar Kanthan
    Senior Vice President
    Sharon Ou
    Vice President - Senior Credit Officer​
    Varun Agarwal
    Vice President - Senior Analyst