Uneven Recovery
Recovery from the unprecedented economic shock of the coronavirus will be tenuous and inconsistent. Prospects will diverge across countries, regions and sectors, constraining the recovery’s overall pace.
  • 摘要
  • 报告

  • SECTOR COMMENT
    15 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The proposed $1.9 trillion pandemic aid package includes funding for vaccine distribution, state and local governments, and additional relief for individuals. The magnitude of the effects on economic and credit conditions would depend on the size and scope of the package that Congress ultimately passes.

    DATA REPORT
    12 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The number of corporate defaults globally totaled 209 in 2020, nearly double the count in 2019, with the oil and gas, business services and retail sectors accounting for the most defaults. The trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate was 6.6% at the end of December and will climb to 7.3% in March before falling to 4.7% at the end of 2021 under our baseline forecasts.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    22 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The estimated $910 billion stimulus measure that President Trump has signed will support consumption and provide a backstop for the recovery of economic activity and employment into early 2021. We continue to expect 4.2% US GDP growth in 2021, although there remain risks to these forecasts.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    17 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Issuers with lower credit quality in consumer-sensitive sectors and those with weak liquidity would be most vulnerable in a scenario of broadly renewed global coronavirus lockdowns that are similar to those in the spring in terms of stringency and effects on economic growth. 
    Series: Consumer Trends
    09 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Consumer confidence in the EU remains historically low despite positive news on coronavirus vaccines, while retail sales are cooling after strongly rebounding ahead of the second wave of infections. In the US, increases in infections and renewed measures to curb virus transmission will weigh on consumption growth in the coming quarter, with uncertainty around federal support adding to the risks.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    09 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
     Despite positive developments around vaccines, EU consumers remain cautious. Consumption is unlikely to accelerate while constraints on movement remain in place or are looming.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    09 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
     The strong rebound in Q3 consumption pulled forward the US recovery, but surging COVID cases and renewed measures to curb the virus's spread will weigh on consumption growth.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    30 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The resumption of closures and restrictions on movement resulting from rising COVID-19 cases will be less damaging than during the spring lockdowns. Concerns about contagion have increased and consumer confidence has fallen, but both also less severely this time around.
    SECTOR COMMENT
    23 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We answer frequently asked questions about how vaccine approval and distribution will affect the global economic environment, the challenges in achieving mass vaccination and how vaccine availability will affect the recovery path of the hardest-hit sectors of the economy.

    PODCAST
    12 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Atsi Sheth from the Credit Strategy team and Yves Lemay from the Sovereign Risk Group discuss the outlook for the global economy and sovereign credit in 2021 in light of the seismic financial shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. They also outline the differing outlooks and credit risks faced by three key economies: the US, China and the UK.
    0:00
    0:00

    OUTLOOK
    12 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    A tentative economic recovery is underway but the path is beset by uncertainty. Effective pandemic management, the development and distribution of a coronavirus vaccine, and the continuation of government policy support to households and businesses will determine the economic trajectory over the coming year.

    0:00
    0:00
    OUTLOOK
    09 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Global credit conditions will improve overall in 2021, aided by unprecedented COVID-19-related fiscal and monetary policy support. However, the initial rapid economic rebound is giving way to a patchier, more tenuous recovery as the pandemic proves hard to contain. Six key themes will shape the credit environment in the year ahead: Uneven recovery, policy challenges, rising debt burdens, digital transformation, environmental impact and social trends.
    PODCAST
    09 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Anne Van Praagh and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss six key trends that will affect the credit landscape as the world deals with the coronavirus crisis. These include an uneven and inconsistent economic recovery, sharply higher corporate and sovereign debt loads and numerous policy challenges for governments as they grapple with the economic and social consequences of the pandemic.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    03 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    A second wave of coronavirus infections is threatening the fragile economic recovery among G-20 nations, and high frequency alternative data point to an uneven and inconsistent rebound in trade. Improvement in financial conditions has stalled in the euro area, and is slowing in emerging markets.

    29 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We had a negative bias on 28% of rated emerging market (EM) sovereigns in the third quarter, up from 20% at year-end 2019, as prolonged disruption from the coronavirus pandemic took its toll. The share of EM companies with a negative bias increased to 31% from 20% over the same period.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    28 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The recovery of Europe's five largest economies has not reversed, but is gradually losing momentum. Increased COVID-19 cases and the resumption of closures and restrictions on movement have yet to translate into lesser demand. Contagion fear levels are stable, as is consumer confidence, although at a relatively low level.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    16 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Increasing infection rates across advanced and emerging markets are weighing on consumer demand and stalling positive economic momentum. The recovery in manufacturing activity is also slowing. While domestic travel is picking up across countries, international travel remains weak.

    0:00
    0:00
    PODCAST
    08 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Atsi Sheth and Robard Williams from the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss the credit effects of key policy challenges that will confront the next US presidential administration, and the uncertainties surrounding the election.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    05 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The US presidential election outcome will help determine policies to address the weakened economy, the coronavirus pandemic and healthcare access, increasingly tense relations with China, fiscal policy and government debt, and environmental challenges. The policy response will affect credit conditions for a range of debt issuers.