Moody's Investors Service
ASIA PACIFIC WEEKLY
30 Nov – 7 Dec 2016
 

This week we look at China’s efforts to reduce the high level of corporate leverage in the country, and which we believe will have mixed credit implications for the sovereign, banks and corporates. In particular, we expect that commercially viable companies with strong business profiles, as reflected by leading market positions and technologies, will benefit. However, highly levered, unviable companies will more likely be abandoned.

We also continue to release our outlooks for 2017, with this week reports for the power sector and covered bonds in Asia Pacific and, by country, reports for Australian infrastructure companies, Chinese regional and local governments, the Chinese securitization market and Japanese life insurers.

All our regional and global outlooks can also be found on our dedicated 2017 outlook page.

We have also published our banking system outlooks for China, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, with the negative outlook on China’s banking system driven by slower economic growth, an increase in corporate sector restructuring, and rising concerns over elevated asset prices in some areas.

The final of our 2017 China Credit Outlook Conferences are scheduled in Shanghai on Thursday and Shenzhen on Tuesday, and will focus on the challenges that China faces in maintaining growth, while implementing reform. The first conference has already taken place in Beijing.

And our briefing in Tokyo tomorrow will discuss our outlook for Japanese corporates, sub-sovereigns and financial institutions.

 

Best regards,

MinYe

Min Ye
Managing Director – Regional Head Asia Pacific

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In This Edition
 

RESEARCH

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China Credit: Implications of Government’s Plans to Reduce Corporate Leverage Are Mixed
[7 Dec] The Chinese government’s deleveraging measures are broadly credit positive for the country’s corporates. However, the credit implications will be mixed for the sovereign, banks and among individual corporates.

Infrastructure -- Australia, 2017 Outlook -- Resilient Operating Environment Underpins Stable Outlook
[7 Dec] Moody’s expects the credit profiles for rated Australian infrastructure corporates to remain resilient during 2017, underpinned by their strong market or contractual positions and essential nature to the economy.

Banks — Mongolia: 3Q 2016 Results Show Recovering Credit Growth, But Economic Headwinds Persist
[6 Dec] The pace of asset quality deterioration has slowed, but delinquencies will likely rise further, reflecting the country’s economic challenges.

Regional and Local Governments — China: 2017 Outlook — High Leverage of State-Owned Enterprises Drives Negative Outlook
[5 Dec] The high leverage of state-owned enterprises is pressuring the credit quality of China’s regional and local governments, driving the negative outlook for the sector over the next 12-18 months.

Banking System Outlook - China: Deteriorating Operating Environment and Asset Quality Drive Negative Outlook
[5 Dec] The banks’ operating environment will become more challenging in the coming 12-18 months, reflecting slower economic growth, an increase in corporate sector restructuring, and rising concerns over elevated asset prices in some areas.

Life Insurance Industry - Japan: 2017 Outlook – Persistent Ultralow Interest Rates Drive Negative Outlook
[5 Dec] The change in outlook to negative from stable reflects Moody’s expectation that the industry’s credit profile over the next 12-18 months will be pressured by a persistent ultralow interest rate environment, following the introduction of a negative interest rate policy by the Bank of Japan in February 2016.

Securitization - China: 2017 Outlook - Asset Performance Stable for Auto ABS and RMBS, Negative for CLOs
[5 Dec] The performance of assets backing Chinese auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS) and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) will be stable through 2017, but negative for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs).

Covered Bonds - Asia Pacific: 2017 Outlook - Credit Quality of APAC Covered Bonds Will Remain Strong
[5 Dec] The credit quality of Australian, New Zealand, Korean and Singaporean covered bonds will remain strong in 2017, underpinned by the credit quality of their issuers and sovereigns.

Buy-to-Let RMBS – Global: Regulations Easing Risks in Mature Markets; Developing Markets Gain Traction
[1 Dec] The buy-to-let mortgage sector is expanding globally, prompting the regulators in the more mature markets to curb some of the associated risks, while those in more developing markets are further encouraging its growth. Moody’s report examines the mature buy-to-let mortgage markets of Australia, the UK, the US and Japan, and the smaller or developing markets of the Netherlands and China.

Power Sector — Asia Pacific: 2017 Outlook — Rising Industry Challenges Are Manageable, Outlook Stable
[1 Dec] The stable outlook over the next 12-18 months is mainly underpinned by consistent regulatory returns and Moody’s expectation of manageable increases in fuel costs over the same period, as well as the absence of significant changes to regulatory environments.

China's Proposal to Revise Banks' Off-Balance-Sheet Exposure Regulations Is Credit Positive
[1 Dec] If implemented, the measures would reduce risks in the banking system and curtail incentives to engage in the regulatory arbitrage that has accelerated the growth of China’s shadow banking activities.

Taiwan's Higher Capital Requirements Are Credit Positive for Life Insurers
[1 Dec] Life insurers will now need to hold more capital and will have added incentive to develop products with a lower cost of liability.

Real Estate Investment Trusts - Singapore : High Leverage, Weak Operating Environment Will Pressure Singapore REITs
[1 Dec] The credit quality of Moody’s-rated Singapore REITs will come under pressure over the next 12-18 months, as their leverage weakens on the back of debt-funded investments.

Banking System Outlook -- Sri Lanka: Stable Operating Environment Drives Stable Outlook
[30 Nov] Moody’s has maintained its stable outlook on Sri Lanka’s banking system, as moderate economic growth and reduced external volatility should keep operating conditions for the country’s banks stable.

Banking System Outlook -- Vietnam: Resilient Economic Growth Drives Stable Outlook
[30 Nov] The stable outlook over the next 12-18 months reflects Moody’s expectation that the country’s macroeconomic stability and resilient economic growth will continue to support the banks’ weak credit profiles.

Power Sector – China and Korea: Supportive Policy Stance Underpins Nuclear Generators’ Credit Quality
[30 Nov] China and Korea will likely maintain a supportive policy stance towards nuclear power, as both countries seek to expand nuclear generation as a stable, low cost power source, and as a means of reducing carbon emissions.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on 1 and 5 Dec

[5 Dec] Tata Steel UK’s Potential Sale of Specialty Steel Business Is Credit Positive; KEPCO’s Long-Term Fixed-Price Contracts for Renewable Generated Power Are Credit Positive; Privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Would be Credit Negative for Bondholders.

[1 Dec] China’s Proposal to Revise Banks’ Off-Balance-Sheet Exposure Regulations Is Credit Positive; Taiwan’s Higher Capital Requirements Are Credit Positive for Life Insurers; Shanghai Electric Power’s Asset Purchase from Parent Is Credit Negative.


 

RATING EVENTS

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AUSTRALIA
[7 Dec] Moody's upgrades Aristocrat Leisure's ratings to Ba1; outlook stable
[5 Dec] Moody's affirms United Energy Distribution's Baa2 ratings; outlook stable
[1 Dec] Moody's assigns definitive ratings to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group's First RMBS Transaction for 2016
[1 Dec] Moody's revises Stein Insurance's outlook to stable; affirms ratings

CHINA
[6 Dec] Moody's assigns definitive ratings to BMW-sponsored auto loan ABS in
China: Bavarian Sky China 2016-2 Trust
[5 Dec] Moody's confirms Shanghai International Port's A1 issuer rating; outlook negative
[30 Nov] Moody's assigns Baa1 IFSR to Sanguard Automobile Insurance; outlook stable

HONG KONG
[5 Dec] Moody's places Chiyu Bank's ratings on review for downgrade

INDONESIA
[5 Dec] Moody's affirms Indonesia Eximbank's Baa3 ratings; outlook stable
[1 Dec] Moody's assigns (P)Baa3 to Indonesia's planned US dollar MTN issuance

INDIA
[30 Nov] Moody's downgrades Reliance Communications to B1; reviews for further downgrade

JAPAN
[5 Dec] Moody's assigns a provisional rating to Auto Loan ABS Program 1612 Series
[1 Dec] Moody's assigns (P)Prime-1 rating to Chugoku Bank's Euro Commercial Paper program

KOREA
[1 Dec] Moody's confirms Suhyup Bank's deposit rating at A2/P-1; outlook stable
[30 Nov] Moody's confirms Mirae Asset Daewoo's ratings, outlook stable

TAIWAN
[5 Dec] Moody's affirms the ratings of 11 Taiwanese Banks and four financial holding companies

VIETNAM
[2 Dec] Moody's maintains Vietcombank's BCA on review for upgrade

 


 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

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AUSTRALIA
[7 Dec] Moody's: No rating impact on Westpac's Series 2008-1M WST Trust after collateral substitution
[6 Dec] Moody's: Origin's proposed divestment of its conventional oil and gas assets has no immediate rating impact

CHINA
[6 Dec] Moody's says China Baowu Steel nears full merger with Wuhan Steel; no rating impact
[5 Dec] Moody's & CCXI 2017 China Credit Outlook Conference assesses challenge of maintaining growth while implementing reform
[30 Nov] Moody's: China's State Power Investment's ratings unaffected by asset sale to Shanghai Electric Power

HONG KONG
[1 Dec] Moody's: Sunac's ratings unaffected by proposed project acquisition
[30 Nov] Moody's: Nord Anglia's FY2016 results in line with expectations
[30 Nov] Moody's: Hua Han's ratings unaffected by its tender offer for senior notes

INDIA
[2 Dec] Moody's: Extension of the Payment Security Mechanism for NTPC is credit positive
[30 Nov] Moody's: Tata Group companies continue to benefit from rating uplift, despite board reshuffle

KOREA
[6 Dec] Moody's: POSCO E&C's potential debt take-over is credit negative for POSCO

MALAYSIA
[6 Dec] Moody's: Maybank's solid capital base provides buffer against rising problem assets

 


 

MOODY'S EVENTS

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Moody’s & CCXI 2017 China Credit Outlook Conference
Shanghai, 8 Dec

Moody's Briefing: 2017 Outlook - Japan Corporate, Sub-Sovereign and Financial Institutions - Muted Recovery After Weak Performance in 2016
Tokyo, 8 Dec

Moody's Webcast: Vietnam Banks: Behind the Stable Outlook on the Banking System
Asia Pacific, 12 Dec

Moody’s & CCXI 2017 China Credit Outlook Conference
Shenzhen, 13 Dec

 


 

MOODY'S TRAINING SEMINARS

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HONG KONG
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 8-9 Dec

SINGAPORE
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 12-14 Dec
Covenants & Documentation, 15 Dec

http://www.moodysanalytics.com/News-Events/Upcoming-Training-Events.aspx

 


  CONTACT US Back to top button  
 

Asia Pacific Client Desk
Research & Subscriptions
+852.3551.3077

Kelly Moy
Associate Managing Director
North Asia
+852.3758.1323

Vineet Gupta
Vice President
India
+91.750.625.0104

Cynthia Zhao
Vice President
North China - Beijing
+86.10.6319.6566

Maria Lee
Vice President
South China - Hong Kong
+852.3758.1338

Yasushi Furuya
VP-Account Management
Japan
+81.3.5408.4272

James Flitton
Vice President
Singapore
+65.6398.8338

Miki Zhou
Vice President
Central China - Shanghai
+86.21.6101.0227

 


 

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