Agenda
8:00 AM
Registration & Breakfast
Gregory W. Bauer, Managing Director, Global Banking, Moody’s Investors Service
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
9:15 AM
Federal Policy is Sure to Change – But What Changes…and When?
This panel will explore the potential shifts in policy, law and regulation, as well as the credit and market dynamics, that can have a substantial impact on the US housing and housing finance markets in the coming year.
- Impact of the new administration on Housing and Housing Finance.
- Drivers and issues with respect to the shift from banks to non-banks.
- Is the credit box too tight and if so what can be done?
- Are we facing a housing shortage?
- What is holding back the RMBS market?
- Is renting here to stay? For how long will the demographic shifts driving this trend be sustained?
- Bart Oosterveld, Managing Director – Credit Officer, America, Moody’s Investors Service (Moderator)
- Christopher Boesen, Founder and President, Tiber Creek Associates of Capitol Hill, Inc.
- Kevin G. Chavers, Managing Director, BlackRock
- Jim Parrott, Senior Fellow, Urban Institute; Owner, Falling Creek Advisors
- Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
10:15 AM
Networking Break
10:30 AM
Where are the Risks & Opportunities? – Senior Leaders Share Their Views
This panel will focus on the likely strategic and tactical responses that lenders, home builders, real estate managers and others might have to successfully navigate the potential shifts in the regulatory, legal and credit landscape in which the US housing market functions.
- What are the opportunities and risks in the current market?
- Where are we with respect to profitability?
- How do you manage in the face of GSE reform uncertainty?
- Where are we with respect to regulation?
- Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President, North American Banking, Moody’s Investors Service (Moderator)
- Mark A. Casale, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Essent Guaranty, Inc.
- Bill Emerson, Vice Chairman, Rock Holdings, Inc.
- Kevin O’Shea, Chief Financial Officer, AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
- Marian Zucker, President, Office of Finance and Development, New York State Homes and Community Renewal
11:30 AM
The Future of Private Capital in US Housing and Housing Finance – Are the Risks Worth the Rewards?
This panel will discuss the current and anticipated future funding dynamics (debt and equity) of US housing and housing finance related sectors, contemplating both the supply and demand dynamics in light of changing demographics, social, credit and economic factors, as well as potential regulatory changes. What are the risks and opportunities faced by investors?
- What are the opportunities and risks in the current market?
- How do you invest with the uncertainties of the new administration?
- How do you invest in the face of GSE reform uncertainty?
- How do you capitalize on a constrained housing and housing finance market?
- How do you capitalize on the low home ownership rate and slow household formations?
- Stanislas Rouyer, Associate Managing Director, Global Research – Financial Institutions, Moody’s Investors Service (Moderator)
- James Egan, Executive Director, Morgan Stanley
- Mike McDermott, Head of Municipal Research, AIG
- Joseph O'Doherty, Managing Director, Barclays Capital
- Mike Reynolds, Vice President, Credit Risk Transfer, Freddie Mac
12:30 PM
Luncheon & Keynote Address
Nigel Morris, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, QED Investors
1:45 PM
Breakout Sessions I
The Housing Market and Residential Construction: Regional Aspects
This breakout session will explore the implications of the significant regional differences within the steadily expanding market, including:
- Implications of large REO inventories on near-term house price growth in the Northeast.
- How signs of overheating are beginning to emerge in many metro areas in the Mountain region and the inland South.
- The lag in residential construction not keeping pace with household formation could increase pressure on house prices.
Andres Carbacho-Burgos, Associate Director-Senior Economist, Moody’s Analytics
Private Label RMBS, Bank and Non-Bank Mortgage Company Developments
This breakout session will cover the current state of private label RMBS and Mortgage originators and servicers as well as the implications of the new administration for the mortgage industry. A selection of specific topics include:
- What is the current state of the non-agency RMBS market? How has it evolved?
- What are the current challenges for non-bank mortgage companies?
- Will the recent trend of non-bank mortgage lenders and servicers gaining market share continue?
- How does a mortgage company’s financial profile impact the performance of the loans in RMBS it services?
- Deepika Kothari, Associate Managing Director, RMBS
- Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President, North American Banking
- William Fricke, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, RMBS
- Gene Berman, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, North American Banking
Outlooks for the GSE’s, Private Mortgage Insurers, State HFAs and the Regulatory and Legislative Environment
This breakout session will discuss the business environment for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Private Mortgage Insurers (PMIs), State HFAs. The specific topics will also include:
- Potential regulatory and legislative changes to the GSEs and their impact on PMIs and HFAs.
- The interaction between the GSEs, PMIs and HFAs.
- Florence Zeman, Associate Managing Director, Housing, US Public Finance
- Brian Harris, Senior Vice President/Manager, North American Banking
- James Eck, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Life Insurance
This breakout session will discuss the factors considered in Moody’s sector outlook for US home builders, including:
- Reclaiming peak ratings for homebuilders will be very challenging despite excellent operating performance.
- Homebuilding expansion still has legs although post-election uncertainties may soften near-term results.
- Homebuilder consolidation activity is heating up.
- Building products companies and related distributors continue to benefit from favorable repair and remodeling activity and new housing construction.
- Policies for infrastructure under Trump administration would be a boon for building materials companies.
- Glenn Eckert, Associate Managing Director, Homebuilding and Building Products
- Joe Snider, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Homebuilding and Building Products
- Tiina Siilaberg, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Homebuilding and Building Products
2:50 PM
Breakout Sessions II
This breakout session will discuss Moody’s outlook for state housing finance agencies, the expectation of high margins, strong loan originations, and improved portfolio performance in the near to medium term as well as the recent Fed rate hike and improving housing market.
- Drivers of sector outlook for the HFAs.
- Impact of Fed rate hike and improving housing market on HFAs.
- Florence Zeman, Associate Managing Director, Housing, US Public Finance
- David Teicher, Senior Vice President, Housing, US Public Finance
- Rachael McDonald, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Housing, US Public Finance
Multifamily REITs and Single-Family Rental Securitizations
This breakout session will explore how real estate firms and sponsors of SFR deals are responding to shifts in supply, demand and funding as we enter the later stages of the credit cycle, including:
- Factors driving millennials rent vs. buy decisions?
- In which metro areas and price points has supply gotten ahead of demand?
- Have apartment and house valuations peaked and how will rising interest rates affect them going forward?
- What are the main near term funding needs and will capital availability be sufficient?
- How will Single-Family Rental companies balance between operating company, home and rental property considerations?
- What’s next for Single-Family Rental companies now that housing prices have recovered?
- Philip Kibel, Associate Managing Director, REITs
- Sang Shin, Vice President-Senior Analyst, RMBS
- Griselda Bisono, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, REITs
GSE Credit Risk Transfer Securitizations: An Update
The panel will discuss GSE Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) transactions focusing on the evolution of deal types and structural enhancements, and the performance outlook for the existing deals in light of increasing interest rates and future issuance trends expectations driven by policy guidance.
- What is the current state of GSE CRT deals?
- Evolution of deal characteristics and structural enhancements.
- Performance outlook; Impact of increasing interest rates.
- How will policy direction (FHFA Scorecard) impact future issuances?
- New developments to expect in 2017: Front-end deals?
- Yehudah Forster, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, RMBS
- Ola Hannoun-Costa, Vice President-Senior Analyst, RMBS
- Sonny Weng, Vice President-Senior Analyst, RMBS
- Gregory Bessermann, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, RMBS
3:50 PM
Conference Concludes
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