Moody's Investors Service
ASIA PACIFIC WEEKLY
Apr 27 - May 4, 2016
 

In this week’s Asia Pacific Weekly, we look at the default rate for Asian high-yield corporates, which will stay at a moderate level for 2016, despite our slightly upward revision of the forecast for the year to 4.2% from an earlier estimate of 3.2%.

We also examine the risk-weighted capital metrics of Australia's major banks, which will come under downward pressure, as a result of both cyclical and regulatory factors, but they will nevertheless retain considerable flexibility to preserve their strong credit profiles.

And we expect Indian IT services companies to maintain market share gains, while preserving their EBITDA margins in the 21%-22% range. Stability in the developed economies will fuel growth for the global IT services outsourcing industry, particularly benefiting Indian companies in this sector.

In terms of events, we will hold a live webcast and teleconference: Chinese Diversified Technology Sector: Resilient to China’s Economic Rebalancing on 5 May.

We will also be hosting a briefing in Hong Kong: China Property Outlook: Weak Margins and Elevated Leverage Amid Slowing Sales Growth on 10 May.

And “Moody's Mid-Year China Conference: Understanding the Risks of High and Rising Leverage” will be held in Beijing on 31 May and Shanghai on 2 June.

Please refer to the list below for full details of our events.

 

Best regards,

MinYe

Min Ye
Managing Director – Regional Head Asia Pacific

To access the information within this email we ask that you register to Moodys.com. Registration is complimentary.

 

 
In This Edition
 

RESEARCH

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Asian Bonds Provide Stronger Investor Protection Than Latin American Bonds
[03 May] During 2011-15, the average covenant quality score for 137 full-package Asian bonds scored was stronger than that for the 47 full-package Latin American bonds, with better scores in five risk areas: restricted payments, risky investments, leverage, liens subordination and change of control.

Global Structured Finance Collateral Performance Review
[02 May] Australian auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS) fell in February 2016 from January 2016, while those for prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) rose. For this year as a whole, we expect delinquencies for Australian auto loan ABS and prime RMBS will rise slightly because of below-trend GDP growth, but overall delinquencies will remain at low levels.

China Property Focus – April 2016
[29 Apr] The latest issue includes the following articles: Sales Growth Will Moderate for the Rest of 2016; Strong Price Growth in Major Cities Invited Regulatory Tightening; Rated Developers' 2015 Results Indicate Credit Quality Will Remain Weak in 2016; Liquidity Index Improved Slightly in March 2016; and more

Default Report: 2016 Asian Corporate High-Yield Default Rate Will Remain Moderate Despite Rise in 1Q2016
[29 Apr] The default rate for Asian high-yield corporates will stay at a moderate level for 2016, despite Moody's slightly upward revision of the forecast default rate for the year to 4.2% from an earlier estimate of 3.2%. The change in the forecast reflects the slight weakening in the credit quality of our speculative grade portfolio during 1Q 2016, and the 4.2% translates to six potential defaulters for the year.

Australian Banks: Capital Metrics Will Come Under Pressure Due To Rising Risk Weights, But Impact On Credit Profile Will Be Limited
[29 Apr] The risk-weighted capital metrics of Australia's major banks will come under downward pressure, as a result of both cyclical and regulatory factors, but they will nevertheless retain considerable flexibility to preserve their strong credit profiles.

Credit Analysis – Bangladesh
[28 Apr] Bangladesh's Ba3 government bond rating is supported by the country's stable and strong growth performance and modest debt burden. However, its very low per capita income, persistent fiscal deficits and a factious political environment pose credit constraints.

Inside China
[28 Apr] While China's GDP growth will continue to receive strong government policy stimulus support, structural challenges posed by high corporate leverage remain unaddressed. The report also says that China's robust GDP growth—targeted at 6.5%-7.0%—will be supported by fiscal easing, as reflected in a widening of the deficit to 3.0% of GDP. As a result, government debt will increase gradually.

Credit Analysis: Government of Pakistan
[27 Apr] Pakistan's B3 issuer rating balances strengthening growth and progress on structural reforms against a relatively high government debt burden and political risks.

Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor
[27 Apr] Overall growth of leverage in China—as measured by total social financing (TSF)—has picked up in recent quarters, reflecting strong growth in bank lending and bond financing. Moreover, the broad range of informal credits that comprise shadow banking, the majority of which do not appear in TSF, have also continued to grow strongly.

Indian IT Services: Market Share Gains Despite Headwinds
[27 Apr] We expect Indian IT services companies to maintain market share gains while preserving their EBITDA margins in the 21%-22% range. And economic stability in developed countries -- which account for 90% of exports by the Indian IT services sector -- will fuel growth for the global IT services outsourcing industry, benefiting Indian IT services companies in particular.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on & 28 Apr & 02 May

[28 Apr] Lifestyle’s Spinoff of China Operations Would Reduce Capex Requirements; Chinese Province’s Natural Gas Price Cut Is Credit Negative for City Gas Operators; Sri Lanka Will Benefit from European Union’s Termination of Ban on Imported Fish; and more

[02 May] Apple Boosts Shareholder Payouts, a Credit Negative; Fortescue Metals’ Note Redemption Is Credit Positive; European Central Counterparty Stress Test Shows Resilience to Market Shocks, a Credit Positive; and more


 

RATING EVENTS

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AUSTRALIA
[27 Apr] Moody's assigns definitive ratings to Australian Consumer Loan ABS issued by FlexiGroup
[28 Apr] Moody's assigns definitive ratings to Macquarie Leasing's first auto ABS transaction for 2016
[28 Apr] Moody's upgrades St Barbara to B3, outlook stable
[29 Apr] Moody's assigns Aa3 to State Grid's guaranteed notes

CHINA
[27 Apr] Moody's downgrades Gemdale Corp to Ba2; outlook stable
[29 Apr] Moody's reviews ratings of Greenland Holding and Greenland Hong Kong for downgrade
[03 May] Moody's confirms Beijing Enterprises' ratings; outlook negative
[03 May] Moody's assigns provisional ratings to Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen's first auto loan ABS in China: Shenrong 2016-1 Retail Auto Mortgage Loan Assets Backed Securities Trust

HONG KONG
[27 Apr] Moody's affirms Lifestyle International Holdings' Baa3 rating on announcement of spin-off; outlook stable
[29 Apr] Moody's confirms Magnolia Finance IX Limited's Series 2012-1 repackaged notes at Aa2 (sf)

INDONESIA
[03 May] Moody's changes outlook on Sritex B1 rating to positive

JAPAN
[03 May] Moody's withdraws Saizen REIT's Ba3 corporate family rating

SINGAPORE
[28 Apr] Moody's assigns P-1 rating to OCBC's US commercial paper program

 


 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

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AUSTRALIA
[28 Apr] Moody's comments on Victoria's 2016/17 Budget
[02 May] Moody's: Broadspectrum's rating unaffected by Ferrovial Services' takeover
[03 May] Moody's: Westpac's 1H16 results credit neutral, while asset quality pressures to rise

CHINA
[29 Apr] Moody's: Evergrande's increased stake in Shengjing Bank is credit negative, but ratings unaffected
[29 Apr] Moody's: China Aoyuan's Shenzhen acquisition has no immediate rating impact

INDIA
[29 Apr] Moody's: Bharti's 4Q FY2016 results continue to support Baa3 ratings

JAPAN
[28 Apr] Moody's: Komatsu's solid credit metrics support A2 rating despite weakening demand

KOREA
[27 Apr] Moody's: Hyundai Motor's weaker 1Q results in line with its Baa1 rating
[03 May] Moody's: E Mart's issuance of hybrid securities is credit positive, but rating unaffected
[03 May] Moody's: LG Electronics improved 1Q results are credit positive; ratings unaffected

MALAYSIA
[28 Apr] Moody's: Tenaga's 1H2016 results are in line with expectations
[28 Apr] Moody's: Malaysia Airport's 1Q2016 results in line with expectations

 


 

MOODY'S EVENTS

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Moody's Live Webcast and Teleconference: Chinese Diversified Technology Sector: Resilient to China’s Economic Rebalancing
Asia Pacific, 5 May

Moody's Briefing: China Property Outlook: Weak Margins and Elevated Leverage Amid Slowing Sales Growth
Hong Kong, 10 May

FinanceAsia 5th Annual Borrowers & Investors Forum, Southeast Asia (Singapore)
Singapore, 19 May

IILM 3rd Roundtable on Liquidity Management: ‘Credit vs. Liquidity
Jakarta, 19-20 May

Moody’s Inside ASEAN – Spotlight on Thailand
Bangkok, 24 May

Moody’s US CLO Briefing 2016
Tokyo, 25 May

Moody's Mid-Year China Conference: Understanding the Risks of High and Rising Leverage
穆迪年中信用研讨会:诠释高杠杆以及杠杆继续攀升的风险
Beijing, May 31

Moody's Mid-Year China Conference: Understanding the Risks of High and Rising Leverage
穆迪年中信用研讨会:诠释高杠杆以及杠杆继续攀升的风险
Shanghai, June 2

Click below to access teleconference / webcast replay. (*Free registration is required)

Asia-Pacific Sovereigns: Policy Effectiveness, High Leverage and China's Rebalancing Drive Outlooks

Tianjin Rail Transit Group Co., Ltd: Behind the First-time A2 Issuer Rating

 


 

MOODY'S TRAINING SEMINARS

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HONG KONG
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 16-17 May
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 16-19 May
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 18-20 May
Covenants and Documentation, 20 May
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 20-22 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 23-24 Jun
Counterparty Credit Risk, 15-16 Aug
Introduction to Derivatives, 17-18 Aug
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 5-7 Sep
Credit Reasoning & Writing, 8-9 Sep

KUALA LUMPUR
Islamic Finance – Risk Management, 21-22 Nov
Islamic Finance – Sukuk: Theory and Practice, 23-24 Nov

SINGAPORE
Credit Reasoning and Writing, 23-24 May
Insurance Credit Analysis, 25-27 May
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 1-3 June
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 11-12 Aug
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 15-16 Aug
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 17-19 Aug
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 31 Oct-2 Nov
Covenants & Documentation, 3 Nov
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 6-9 Dec

SYDNEY
Insurance Credit Analysis, 4-6 July
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 7-8 July
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 29 Aug-1 Sep
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 11-13 Oct
Covenants and Documentation, 14 Oct

TOKYO
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 1-2 Dec

 


  CONTACT US Back to top button  
 

Soo-Jung Kim
Representative Director
Korea and Mongolia
+82.2.787.2273

Vineet Gupta
Vice President
India
+91.750.625.0104

Asia Pacific Client Desk
Research & Subscriptions
+852.3551.3077

Yasushi Furuya
VP-Account Management
Japan
+81.3.5408.4272

James Flitton
Vice President
Singapore
+65.6398.8338

Maria Lee
Vice President
South China - Hong Kong
+852.3758.1338

Kelly Moy
Senior Vice President
North Asia
+852.3758.1323

Cynthia Zhao
Vice President
North China - Beijing
+86.10.6319.6566

Miki Zhou
Vice President
Central China - Shanghai
+86.21.6101.0227

 


 

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