Our global outlook for non-bank finance companies is stable. We see pockets of weakness in some sectors, primarily in Asia, but generally stable conditions across North America and Europe.

Rated ports in Asia Pacific are well-positioned to withstand the impact of the ongoing US-China trade tensions, even in a scenario where a further escalation results in higher tariffs and other measures. This report analyses three scenarios: our current baseline of tensions persisting but not escalating, a hardened stance, and a significant softening.

In 2020, Russia’s regional governments will continue to record revenue growth, facilitating an increase in spending without taking on further debt and reducing leverage. In addition, stronger tax administration, higher cash buffers, larger transfers from the federal government, and high banking sector liquidity will offset the weaker external conditions and modest national economic growth for Russia in 2020.

We have changed our outlook for APAC banks to negative from stable as weaker operating conditions will lead to moderately higher asset risks.