On July 18 Moody’s moved the outlook on the US government back to stable and affirmed the Aaa rating. The action reflects Moody’s assessment that the federal government’s debt trajectory is on track, at least through 2018, to meet the criteria laid out in August 2011 for a return to a stable outlook. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to credits with both direct and indirect linkages to the U.S. fiscal outlook.

China is embarking on a structural shift in its economy away from investment and exports, and towards a consumption-driven growth model. Reform and rebalancing will present both opportunities and challenges for domestic credit, as well as the wider emerging markets universe. Meanwhile, China and emerging markets in Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa are becoming increasingly influential forces in the global economy. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit issues in China and major emerging markets.

Pension and healthcare costs represent a growing, fundamental credit challenge for many governments and corporations as the world's population ages. These benefits were developed decades ago when demographics were tilted toward younger workers rather than retired beneficiaries. Driven by increases in longevity and lower birth rates in the intervening decades, the share of population aged 60 or older is growing rapidly across the OECD and many other nations, including China. Governments are increasingly struggling to afford their social security safety net promised to older citizens and retired employees. Many corporations see threats to their future credit strength unless they generate new revenues to pay for promised benefits or make hard decisions to cut worker benefits. The credit quality of large public and private sector organizations has already been stressed by pension and health care risks. These risks are likely to increase for many in coming years.

Progress toward a Banking Union for the euro area has multiple implications for bank credit, systemic risk and the health of the regional economy, to which banks are the primary providers of financing. In November 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) will become the Single Supervisor for the euro area, directly responsible for the day-to-day supervision of more than 120 banking institutions. Meanwhile, political and technical discussions continue regarding a centralized bank resolution process for the region, which will likely include the “bail-in” of creditors. Two topics of particular interest in early 2014 are the Asset Quality Review (AQR) and subsequent Stress Tests to be conducted by the ECB, in coordination with national supervisors and the European Banking Authority, as part of a Comprehensive Assessment to help improve banks’ financial footing and restore market confidence. This page highlights key Moody’s research on the credit implications for Euro Area banks and their creditors.