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27 Aug 2016
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  • 24 Aug 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    Weak credit conditions in Latin America are set to persist through 2017 as the region’s economies adjust to a more sluggish pace of global growth. While conditions have improved since the end of 2015, confidence and sentiment remain fickle, the implications of political regime changes in several countries are not yet fully known, and there is the risk of sudden reversals of capital flows...
  • 21 Aug 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    The outlook for emerging markets economies has stabilized, owing to a combination of a modest recovery in commodity prices, improved capital flows and a better 2017 outlook for growth in China. Moody’s has raised its growth forecast for China and expects Russia’s economy to emerge from its recession in the second half of this year. Brazil will likely return to growth in 2017. Nonetheless, potential risks to growth include increased volatility in financial markets, capital outflows from emerging economies, market deterioration in China’s financial sector, and trade agreements renegotiations after the US presidential elections in November.
  • 16 Aug 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    The UK commercial real estate (CRE) sector will likely continue to weaken following the country's vote to leave the European Union. However, the six largest UK banks will be better able to cope with a deterioration in the sector than during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. A severe deterioration of the CRE sector would likely lead to moderate erosion of regulatory capitalization for Barclays and HSBC Bank and more sizeable declines for Lloyds, Nationwide, Santander UK and RBS…
  • 15 Aug 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    The outlook for the North American and EMEA refining and marketing sector has shifted to negative from stable, with the sector's EBITDA likely to decline by more than 15% through late 2017 or early 2018 based on persistently high fuel inventories and anemic margins. Even summer gasoline demand has not provided a much-needed lift to refining margins, with demand lower than the levels downstream operators had expected...
  • 12 Aug 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    Our industry outlooks for the global integrated oil and exploration and production (E&P) sectors have changed to stable from negative based on cost cutting and business efficiencies, on top of a mild rebound in oil prices from their low levels of early 2016. Our outlooks for both sectors had been negative for nearly two years...
Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective

  • Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective

    Commodity prices have fallen to deep multi-year lows. The declines reflect a number of factors, including changes in supply, demand and exchange rates. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research on the credit impact of the sharp drop in commodity prices.
  • China’s Trilemma: Growth, Reform and Stability

    China’s policy makers have three main policy objectives: maintaining reasonably high rates of GDP growth, reforming and rebalancing the economy, and ensuring financial and economic stability. However, against a backdrop of slower growth, capital flow volatility and rising corporate stress, it will be increasingly difficult for these policy objectives to be achieved in unison, which will pose challenges for China’s credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.
  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    Irrespective of the euro area's emergence from the acute phase of the region's debt crisis in the second half of 2012, economic growth - despite its recent acceleration - has been subdued, reflecting continued large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (including poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area's economic union, the growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • Environmental Risks and Developments

    Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.