The outlooks for the Exploration and Production, Oilfield Services and Drilling, Midstream and MLPs and Refining and Marketing sectors in 2019 are positive, with EBITDA growth ranging from 8%-15% -- well above our 5% baseline for a positive designation. The outlook for Integrated Oil and Gas, however, is stable, with EBITDA likely to fall slightly in 2019 after rising around 30% in 2018 on higher oil prices.

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Global consumer packaged goods and US consumer durables’ 2019 positive outlooks are underpinned by strong EBIT growth of 4.5%-5.5%, as cost-cutting drives earnings growth. The outlook for global beverages is stable, with single-digit growth likely in 2019 amid subdued conditions in both the emerging and the developed markets.  The US packaged foods outlook is stable amid slowing operating profit and higher costs, but cash flow that remains strong.

Regulation will strengthen China’s online financial services, which have grown quickly in the past two years, by forcing small, inefficient and risky third-party platforms out of the market. Partnerships between financial institutions and technology companies benefit both parties: they help financial institutions serve small customers more efficiently and provide monetization opportunities for technology companies.