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30 Jul 2016
20160730
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  • 29 Jul 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    A severe UK recession following the vote to leave the EU would lead to significant capital losses in the UK banking sector, according to the results of a macro stress test. However, in this downside scenario, the sector as a whole remains relatively well-capitalised and close to its G7 peers in terms of aggregate capital ratios...
  • 25 Jul 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    Passive investments constitute roughly one-third of the US mutual fund market today. This share could expand to well above current levels owing to the chronic underperformance of traditional active managers and new regulations favoring low-cost, transparent investment products. The persistent, and now accelerating, flow of assets into lower-fee passive investment products from traditional mutual funds is weakening asset managers’ earnings, a credit negative...
  • 22 Jul 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    While financial institutions are actively exploring ways to implement blockchain technology, robust applications have yet to become widespread. Moody’s believes that potential credit benefits of blockchain technology will be dependent on its more economical transaction processing and recordkeeping, industrywide adoption, and regulatory acceptance. Blockchain also has the potential to spawn new competitors in the financial services space which could change the competitive landscape and may lead to changes in credit profile of existing players... Full Report
  • 21 Jul 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    Emerging market economies are increasingly vulnerable as a result of an increase in private sector debt held by foreign investors. External debt has risen to $8.2 trillion in 2015 from $3.0 trillion in 2005, and over the last five years has generally grown faster than GDP and foreign exchange reserves. As a result, external vulnerability, as measured by the ratios of external debt to GDP, external debt to reserves, and other factors, has increased across all regions. Although the risks are not as high as in the early 2000s, challenges such as low commodity prices, sluggish growth and EM currency weakness could exacerbate the situation.
    Full Report​​
  • 20 Jul 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    We expect greater uncertainty over the UK's trade relationship with the EU to lead to lower economic growth and credit demand, a modest increase in unemployment, reduced property prices and potentially higher and more volatile wholesale funding costs for British banks. These adverse credit drivers will erode asset quality and profitability metrics in the system and led to our 28 June outlook change to negative from stable…
Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective



  • Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective

    Commodity prices have fallen to deep multi-year lows. The declines reflect a number of factors, including changes in supply, demand and exchange rates. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research on the credit impact of the sharp drop in commodity prices.
  • China’s Trilemma: Growth, Reform and Stability

    China’s policy makers have three main policy objectives: maintaining reasonably high rates of GDP growth, reforming and rebalancing the economy, and ensuring financial and economic stability. However, against a backdrop of slower growth, capital flow volatility and rising corporate stress, it will be increasingly difficult for these policy objectives to be achieved in unison, which will pose challenges for China’s credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.
  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    Irrespective of the euro area's emergence from the acute phase of the region's debt crisis in the second half of 2012, economic growth - despite its recent acceleration - has been subdued, reflecting continued large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (including poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area's economic union, the growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • Environmental Risks and Developments

    Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.