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  • 17 Jan 2017
    Moody's Investors Service
    Sovereigns in Latin America and the Caribbean will record low growth in 2017 because of ongoing fiscal reforms to offset lower-for-longer commodity prices (despite recent increases in oil prices), rising government debt levels and the prospect of higher funding costs given the likely rise in global interest rates. These negative credit conditions will hit South American countries and Mexico (A3 negative) hardest, while Central American and Caribbean countries will fare slightly better...
  • 12 Jan 2017
    Moody's Investors Service
    Stable but subdued real GDP growth, unchanged spending plans and modestly declining debt burdens underpin the stable outlook for euro area sovereign credit quality in 2017. However, the rising political and hence policy risks in some countries may lead to far-reaching political changes that would challenge the governance and even the continuity of the euro area...
  • 12 Jan 2017
    Moody's Investors Service
    While unfunded pension liabilities will continue to weigh on the City of Chicago’s (Ba1 negative) credit profile, plans to significantly increase contributions with higher taxes is a favorable departure from prior funding practices. However, the liquidity crisis at Chicago Public Schools (CPS – B3 negative) is worsening amid a continued budget impasse at the state level...
  • 12 Jan 2017
    Moody's Investors Service
    A plan to provide government support to Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. raises questions regarding the European authorities' commitment to strictly follow the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), in particular the bail-in provisions to resolve troubled banks. For now, we maintain our view that despite a moderate probability that public funds will support failing systemic banks, the BRRD's resolution tools will most often be deployed...
  • 10 Jan 2017
    Moody's Investors Service
    Weak global trade and tighter financing conditions will weigh on the creditworthiness of some countries in the Asia-Pacific region in the year ahead. Economic and institutional reform plans should help to counterbalance such challenges, but political tensions, either domestic or international, represent an aggravating factor...
Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective



  • Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective

    Commodity prices have fallen to deep multi-year lows. The declines reflect a number of factors, including changes in supply, demand and exchange rates. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research on the credit impact of the sharp drop in commodity prices.
  • China's Trilemma: Growth, Reform and Stability

    China's policy makers have three main policy objectives: maintaining reasonably high rates of GDP growth, reforming and rebalancing the economy, and ensuring financial and economic stability. However, against a backdrop of slower growth, capital flow volatility and rising corporate stress, it will be increasingly difficult for these policy objectives to be achieved in unison, which will pose challenges for China’s credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.
  • Environmental Risks and Developments

    Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.