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  • 23 Apr 2014

    April ABS Spotlight

    In this edition, we discuss US subprime auto lenders' growing caution, the limited value of cash-trapping triggers in credit card ABS, the DOE's proposed gainful employment rule, the improvement in real estate trends in the context of small business ABS, and the entry of a new player, Kubota, in the equipment ABS market.... Full Report
  • 23 Apr 2014

    Economic recovery among CEE sovereigns underpins stabilizing credit trends, despite higher debt

    The economic recovery that began throughout Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in late 2013 supports the stabilizing creditworthiness of the region’s sovereigns. As fiscal consolidation measures ease, the five key CEE sovereigns – the Czech Republic (A1 stable), Poland (A2 stable), Slovakia (A2 stable), Slovenia (Ba1 stable) and Hungary (Ba1 negative) – will have more flexibility to adjust to what we consider to be a ‘new normal’ of higher government debt and less affordable interest burdens. However, the uneven economic recovery in these countries and lingering economic and fiscal challenges mean that upgrades are unlikely over the next 12-18 months… Press Release l Sovereign Outlook Report
  • 22 Apr 2014

    Industry sector outlooks reflect favorable, if muted, business conditions

    The first quarter of 2014 had just four outlook changes among the 55 non-financial industry sectors we analyze worldwide. Most outlooks remain stable, while 14 are positive and just four are negative, with the numbers reflecting cautious optimism for the global economic recovery... Press Release l Full Report
  • 21 Apr 2014

    US CMBS and CRE CDO performance remains positive in Q1

    Momentum in all of the commercial real estate sectors was positive in the first quarter of 2014. The performance of multifamily construction will remain solid in 2014, and the hotel sector will continue to grow, while office and retail will only recover after 2014 once the market absorbs excess supply... Full Report
  • 17 Apr 2014

    New EU framework for resolution of troubled banks confirms credit negative implications for senior unsecured creditors

    The new bank recovery and resolution framework passed by the European Parliament on April 15 details how private shareholders and creditors could be required to share in resolution costs via a bail-in, consistent with the stated objective of avoiding the use of public funds to support troubled banks. The potential to bail-in senior unsecured creditors marks an important development with negative implications for holders of senior unsecured bank debt in Europe... Full Report
Pensions and Healthcare
Credit Challenges in an Aging World.
 


  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    After several years of economic contraction, the euro area — still the second largest economic area after the US — returned to growth during the second half of 2013. This was the result of significant structural adjustment across the euro area periphery, institutional reform at the European Union and euro area levels and of a related reduction of market stress. However, growth is expected to be subdued for the foreseeable future, reflecting still large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (notably, poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area’s economic union, it is clear that the future growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, faces challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • US Fiscal Outlook

    On July 18 Moody’s moved the outlook on the US government back to stable and affirmed the Aaa rating. The action reflects Moody’s assessment that the federal government’s debt trajectory is on track, at least through 2018, to meet the criteria laid out in August 2011 for a return to a stable outlook. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to credits with both direct and indirect linkages to the U.S. fiscal outlook.
  • China and Emerging Markets – Prospects and Challenges

    China is embarking on a structural shift in its economy away from investment and exports, and towards a consumption-driven growth model. Reform and rebalancing will present both opportunities and challenges for domestic credit, as well as the wider emerging markets universe. Meanwhile, China and emerging markets in Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa are becoming increasingly influential forces in the global economy. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit issues in China and major emerging markets.
  • Pensions and Healthcare – Credit Challenges in an Aging World

    Pension and healthcare costs represent a growing, fundamental credit challenge for many governments and corporations as the world's population ages. These benefits were developed decades ago when demographics were tilted toward younger workers rather than retired beneficiaries. Driven by increases in longevity and lower birth rates in the intervening decades, the share of population aged 60 or older is growing rapidly across the OECD and many other nations, including China. Governments are increasingly struggling to afford their social security safety net promised to older citizens and retired employees. Many corporations see threats to their future credit strength unless they generate new revenues to pay for promised benefits or make hard decisions to cut worker benefits. The credit quality of large public and private sector organizations has already been stressed by pension and health care risks. These risks are likely to increase for many in coming years.
  • European Banking Union

    Progress toward a Banking Union for the euro area has multiple implications for bank credit, systemic risk and the health of the regional economy, to which banks are the primary providers of financing. In November 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) will become the Single Supervisor for the euro area, directly responsible for the day-to-day supervision of more than 120 banking institutions. Meanwhile, political and technical discussions continue regarding a centralized bank resolution process for the region, which will likely include the “bail-in” of creditors. Two topics of particular interest in early 2014 are the Asset Quality Review (AQR) and subsequent Stress Tests to be conducted by the ECB, in coordination with national supervisors and the European Banking Authority, as part of a Comprehensive Assessment to help improve banks’ financial footing and restore market confidence. This page highlights key Moody’s research on the credit implications for Euro Area banks and their creditors.
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