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Market Outlook
Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
December 10, 2015
Corporate Credit May Bend But Not Break
(Capital Markets Research)
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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
December 10, 2015
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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2016 Outlook
Global Credit Conditions Hold a Steady Course Through Increasing Headwinds
Moody's 2016 Outlooks
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China
China: Reform and Rebalancing
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Environmental Risks
Environmental Risks and Developments
Implications for fixed income markets
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The overall creditworthiness of Chinese banks is likely to deteriorate over the next 12-18 months as the operating environment worsens. Our baseline scenario now assumes a further slowing of Chinese GDP growth to 6.3% in 2016 from 6.8% in 2015. Against this backdrop, problem loan and delinquency rates are increasing and there is evidence that problem loan recognition has become less stringent…
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Aging populations in mature markets, improving access to care in emerging markets, and the development of new products and technologies continue to drive the rise in demand for healthcare. However, rising healthcare spending creates budgetary pressures and leads to great cost containment efforts, tempering the industry’s growth...
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Our review for downgrade will assess the likelihood of a further deterioration in the Brazilian government's fiscal position against the baseline assumptions that underpin the current Baa3 rating. We will also examine the prospect of a faster and more significant rise in the government's debt trajectory in the context of heightened political uncertainty, declining investor confidence and a deeper-than-expected recession...
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Our negative outlooks on these industries reflect slowing growth in China and commodities volatility, which will continue to depress prices and weaken operating metrics for global base metal and North American metallurgical coal producers. Thermal coal faces a long-term secular decline as regulation spurs a shift to natural gas and renewable energy, and weak capacity utilization and low prices will continue to dampen growth in the US steel industry...
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Firms that review mortgage origination quality are reporting a high rate of compliance violations with new rules from the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Although many of the violations were “technical” in nature, the results suggest that lenders are having difficulty complying with the rules. This is credit negative because it increases the likelihood that loans with compliance violations will be included in residential mortgage-backed securities pools...
Global Credit Conditions Hold a Steady Course Through Increasing Headwinds
Moody's 2016 Outlooks
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The outlook for global credit conditions in 2016 remains stable overall as economic growth continues and defaults are unlikely to veer sharply upwards. However, credit risks are greater than a year ago, including persistent uncertainty about future US interest rates, even lower oil and commodity prices for a longer period, a sharper slowdown in China than we currently expect and lagging growth in Europe and parts of Latin America. Other risks are emerging or intensifying, notably those arising from geopolitical crises, regulatory developments, environmental issues and asset deterioration. This page provides the outlooks for 2016 by region, country and sector. Additional outlooks will publish over the coming weeks
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The Chinese economy is embarking on a path of rebalancing, defined by a reorientation away from the export and investment-led development model towards a model where consumption gradually becomes a more important engine of growth. This process will be characterized by economic restructuring, policy reform, market liberalization, and credit deceleration, posing both opportunities and challenges for China's credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's rebalancing story unfolds.
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Irrespective of the euro area's emergence from the acute phase of the region's debt crisis in the second half of 2012, economic growth - despite its recent acceleration - has been subdued, reflecting continued large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (including poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area's economic union, the growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
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Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.
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