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29 Apr 2016
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  • 27 Apr 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    Despite decelerating economic growth and financial uncertainty, rating outlooks are mostly stable across Asia Pacific, although negative outlooks outnumber positive ones. Looking ahead, the key drivers of sovereign credit quality in the region will be economies' responses to challenges and opportunities offered by China's rebalancing, the risks posed by leverage and buffers against it, and the way in which government macroeconomic and structural reform policies evolve…
  • 25 Apr 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    On 2 May, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico will default on numerous securities, including Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico senior notes, regardless of whether the US Congress enacts pending fiscal oversight legislation for the US territory. In the absence of federal action, the defaults will encourage bondholder litigation, likely prolonging efforts to restructure Puerto Rico’s approximately $72 billion of debt...
  • 22 Apr 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    Having assessed the impact of the steep oil price decline on the two oil-exporting countries, we have confirmed Russia’s rating at Ba1 negative, and downgraded Kazakhstan’s rating to Baa3 negative. Lower energy prices have not significantly affected the Russian economy thanks to effective macro policy responses, but they have weakened the fiscal and economic strength of Kazakhstan, whose rating is still one notch higher than that of Russia. These actions conclude the reviews for downgrade we had initiated for the two countries on 4 March.
  • 18 Apr 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    Unfunded pensions represent the largest source of credit risk in the US municipal sector. New pension accounting rules will facilitate easier assessment of whether government contributions are keeping pace with growth in pension liabilities, referred to as “tread water” analysis. Balance sheet adjustments to reported pension information are still needed for credit analysis...
  • 18 Apr 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    The upgrade of Argentina’s issuer rating reflects our expectation that the government will settle holdout creditor claims, which would result in a lifting of court injunctions and clear the way for Argentina to access international capital markets. The likelihood that Argentina will make payments to restructured bondholders increased significantly following the 13 April US circuit court ruling in favour of Argentina. In addition, the economic policy improvements since the Macri administration took office last December – such as the lifting of capital controls, the reduced energy and transportation subsidies among other measures – also support the upgrade...
Global Credit Conditions Hold a Steady Course Through Increasing Headwinds
Moody's 2016 Outlooks
  • 2016 Outlooks

    The outlook for global credit conditions in 2016 remains stable overall as economic growth continues and defaults are unlikely to veer sharply upwards. However, credit risks are greater than a year ago, including persistent uncertainty about future US interest rates, even lower oil and commodity prices for a longer period, a sharper slowdown in China than we currently expect and lagging growth in Europe and parts of Latin America. Other risks are emerging or intensifying, notably those arising from geopolitical crises, regulatory developments, environmental issues and asset deterioration. This page provides the outlooks for 2016 by region, country and sector. Additional outlooks will publish over the coming weeks
  • China’s Trilemma: Growth, Reform and Stability

    China’s policy makers have three main policy objectives: maintaining reasonably high rates of GDP growth, reforming and rebalancing the economy, and ensuring financial and economic stability. However, against a backdrop of slower growth, capital flow volatility and rising corporate stress, it will be increasingly difficult for these policy objectives to be achieved in unison, which will pose challenges for China’s credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.
  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    Irrespective of the euro area's emergence from the acute phase of the region's debt crisis in the second half of 2012, economic growth - despite its recent acceleration - has been subdued, reflecting continued large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (including poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area's economic union, the growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • Environmental Risks and Developments

    Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.