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  • 28 Jun 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    This report identifies four primary categories of risks for assessing the credit implications of carbon transition while outlining three scenarios considering credit and rating implications of greenhouse gas emissions reduction regulations. The Baseline Scenario is consistent with the recent Paris Agreement. The report also identifies 13 sectors with $3.2tn of rated debt in our corporate & infra portfolio with high exposure to carbon-related risks...
  • 24 Jun 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    The majority referendum vote in favour of the UK leaving the European Union – i.e., a “Brexit” – is credit negative for the UK because it triggers a prolonged period of uncertainty while the UK negotiates its withdrawal from the EU as well as a new trade agreement. Over this period, we expect this heightened uncertainty to weigh on the country’s economic growth, fiscal strength and the predictability of policy-making. However, the UK’s exit has a manageable effect on the EU as an issuer, whose own credit standing rests on the credit strength of the remaining highly rated member states...
  • 24 Jun 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    The one-notch downgrade reflects Austria’s weak growth prospects, which in turn limit the government’s ability to significantly reduce its high debt burden over the medium term. Austria’s government debt burden of around 86% of 2015 GDP is significantly above the 38% median of Aaa countries. The stable outlook on Austria’s Aa1 rating points to limited further downside risks at this rating level…
  • 23 Jun 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    The European Union’s decision to extend some of its economic sanctions on Russia (Ba1 negative) by another year until 23 June 2017 will further hurt Russia’s export earnings, which have already more than halved since 2013 as a result of the collapse in oil prices. The extended sanctions will also keep Russian government-owned banks as well as selected Russian individuals and businesses cut off from external financing. However, the sanctions will also affect several European countries because of Russia’s retaliatory ban on food imports from the EU. The EU had first imposed the sanctions on Russia in March 2014 after Russia’s annexation of the Crimea region in neighbouring Ukraine (Caa3 stable)...
  • 22 Jun 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    The surge in investments in loans and receivables by Chinese banks, while supporting earnings and capital generation, raises asset quality, liquidity and interest rate risks. These investments are mostly in trust and asset management schemes established by non-bank financial institutions, as well as wealth management products and bonds. Features of these investments, such as use of ‘pass-through’ channels and credit enhancement, may obscure the extent of banks' exposure to the ultimate borrowers, while lower provisioning and capital requirements reduce the banks' resilience to potential credit shocks...
Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective

  • Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices: A Credit Perspective

    Commodity prices have fallen to deep multi-year lows. The declines reflect a number of factors, including changes in supply, demand and exchange rates. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research on the credit impact of the sharp drop in commodity prices.
  • China’s Trilemma: Growth, Reform and Stability

    China’s policy makers have three main policy objectives: maintaining reasonably high rates of GDP growth, reforming and rebalancing the economy, and ensuring financial and economic stability. However, against a backdrop of slower growth, capital flow volatility and rising corporate stress, it will be increasingly difficult for these policy objectives to be achieved in unison, which will pose challenges for China’s credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.
  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    Irrespective of the euro area's emergence from the acute phase of the region's debt crisis in the second half of 2012, economic growth - despite its recent acceleration - has been subdued, reflecting continued large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (including poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area's economic union, the growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • Environmental Risks and Developments

    Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.