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Market Outlook
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Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
October 18, 2018
Stepped Up Use of Loan Debt May Yet Swell Defaults
(Capital Markets Research)
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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
October 18, 2018
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets Analysis
September 21, 2018
Regional credit trends and differences
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The Big Picture
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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ESG
Environmental, Social and Governance
Implications for fixed income markets
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The Italian government’s significantly higher budget deficit targets for the next three years will keep its public debt at a high 130% of GDP, a level that makes Italy vulnerable to future economic shocks. Despite a short-lived boost to growth from fiscal stimulus, the government’s economic plans will not allow it to tackle the country’s low growth, which will move back to the trend rate of 1% at best.
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The credit ratings of US companies sponsored by the 16 largest private equity firms are significantly weaker than those of non-PE firms. This factor will increase the possibility of default for PE-backed companies when the economy turns.
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The online giant has affected every conceivable retail business line, but this doesn't mean traditional retailers are losing the battle to online retailers. Physical stores continue to give retailers a crucial advantage.
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Further flattening of the yield curve portends a possible setback for recent improvement in some US regional banks’ net interest margin, a credit negative because net interest income accounts for about 60% of these banks’ net revenue. But banks have some defenses, foremost their large base of very low-cost deposits that will help avert a steep rise in funding costs.
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The development of autonomous vehicles (AV) will increasingly rely on joint ventures and cooperation agreements within the auto industry, such as Honda’s deal with GM, to overcome significant technology integration and capital requirements.
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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Financial technologies, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, electric and autonomous vehicles and e-commerce will continue to transform production processes, business models and government regulation. On this page you will find Moody’s research about emerging technologies and their potential to affect credit risk in various sectors and asset classes.
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The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, particularly in advanced economies, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction. On this page, you will find Moody's research about key credit issues related to upcoming elections and political developments globally
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Market participants are focusing more on the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact investment decisions and to assist in the development of a more sustainable economy. We capture ESG considerations into our analysis and ratings when we believe that such factors materially affect a debt issuer’s credit quality. This topic page aggregates Moody’s research related to ESG considerations in credit analysis and the growth and development of green finance globally.
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