We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the global shipping industry to decline in 2022 after a stellar performance this year, but to stay well above pre-pandemic levels. Demand for container and dry-bulk shipping services will remain robust, while the tanker market will be weak but steady, with a limited supply of new vessels.

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Global hospitality EBITDA will surge 35%-40% in 2022 before easing as conditions gradually normalize. This high, broad range reflects how the industry is rebounding from a very low base in 2020, making growth rates exponentially higher. 

The credit quality and performance of European residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and consumer asset-backed securities (ABS) will continue to normalize alongside improvements in most economies across Europe. However, the performance of small and midsize enterprise ABS and nonperforming loan securitisations, the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic over the past 18 months, will remain at heightened risk of deterioration.