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08 Feb 2016
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  • 05 Feb 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    US global investment banks’ (US GIBs’) recent earnings results reveal that their direct energy loan exposures are manageable and do not present a significant concentration risks, although some will need to make additional loan loss provisions if oil prices remain depressed for an extended period. Such provisions would add to the banks’ broader earnings challenges. In addition, their capital markets revenues could suffer if an extended period of low oil and commodity prices is accompanied by a slowdown in the global economy...
  • 01 Feb 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    The US speculative-grade default rate will likely climb to a six-year high of 4.4% this year, as the drop in commodity prices continues to reduce cash flows in the affected sectors. Liquidity pressures and negative rating trends are modest but edging up in other sectors. This raises the possibility of a sharper rise in the default rate, if economic growth slows or credit losses in energy and tighter monetary policy further increase investor risk aversion and speculative-grade borrowing costs...
  • 29 Jan 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    Asia’s credit markets face a challenging year because of heightened concerns over China’s growth slowdown and US interest rate normalization. Flat or slower growth for most Asian economies and capital flow volatility will weigh on the region's rated debt issuers, particularly in the corporate sector. While Asian banks’ asset quality and profitability will deteriorate, the banks demonstrate rating cushions. The credit buffers that Asian sovereigns have built will be tested in the more adverse macroeconomic environment...
  • 28 Jan 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    Recent depreciation in the Hong Kong dollar highlights pressures on its peg to the US dollar. But we expect Hong Kong's authorities to defend the arrangement, given its significant benefits in terms of exchange rate and financial stability and the availability of large fiscal and foreign exchange buffers...
  • 27 Jan 2016
    Moody's Investors Service
    It is becoming increasingly difficult for China’s government to achieve its growth target while steering the economy toward a more balanced structure. Fiscal and monetary policy support for growth is likely to delay deleveraging and eradication of excess capacity in 2016, a credit negative...
Global Credit Conditions Hold a Steady Course Through Increasing Headwinds
Moody's 2016 Outlooks
  • 2016 Outlooks

    The outlook for global credit conditions in 2016 remains stable overall as economic growth continues and defaults are unlikely to veer sharply upwards. However, credit risks are greater than a year ago, including persistent uncertainty about future US interest rates, even lower oil and commodity prices for a longer period, a sharper slowdown in China than we currently expect and lagging growth in Europe and parts of Latin America. Other risks are emerging or intensifying, notably those arising from geopolitical crises, regulatory developments, environmental issues and asset deterioration. This page provides the outlooks for 2016 by region, country and sector. Additional outlooks will publish over the coming weeks
  • China: Reform and Rebalancing

    The Chinese economy is embarking on a path of rebalancing, defined by a reorientation away from the export and investment-led development model towards a model where consumption gradually becomes a more important engine of growth. This process will be characterized by economic restructuring, policy reform, market liberalization, and credit deceleration, posing both opportunities and challenges for China's credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's rebalancing story unfolds.
  • Euro Area – The Road to Sustainable Growth

    Irrespective of the euro area's emergence from the acute phase of the region's debt crisis in the second half of 2012, economic growth - despite its recent acceleration - has been subdued, reflecting continued large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (including poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area's economic union, the growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
  • Environmental Risks and Developments

    Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.