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Market Outlook
Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
May 24, 2018
Higher Interest Rates Will Be the Source of Their Own Demise (Capital Markets Research)
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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
May 24, 2018
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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Structured Finance Podcast
Moody’s Talks: Structured Finance
US Multifamily REITs' credit profiles remain strong, despite pressure from higher supply
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The Big Picture
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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ESG
Environmental, Social and Governance
Implications for fixed income markets
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The reimposition of sanctions on Iran would raise the risk of a more interventionist foreign policy from Iran in the Middle East region, which would likely exacerbate conflict hot spots in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. An increase in tensions would in turn drive up military spending across the region, and capital outflows in the case of Lebanon in particular.
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US restrictions on technology transfers and Chinese investment could disrupt China's near-term development of its tech sectors. However long-term tech sector development plans are unlikely to be impacted because the Chinese government could increase spending on the sector to mitigate the impact.
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The aging of the world’s population will accelerate dramatically over the next two decades, while growth of the working-age population will slow by more than half over the same period. Policy choices on immigration and technology will shape the credit effects.
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Tighter spending and cost efficiency strategies adopted by national oil companies (NOCs) globally in response to the 2014-16 oil price collapse will largely remain in place as prices recover, allowing some NOCs to invest in core businesses, while others increase production or expand their foreign footprints.
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China cannot reduce its trade surplus with the US to the extent and at the pace sought by the US without significantly disrupting the Chinese economy. The divergence of the two governments’ trade policies is negative for investment and growth in both countries.
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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Financial technologies, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, electric and autonomous vehicles and e-commerce will continue to transform production processes, business models and government regulation. On this page you will find Moody’s research about emerging technologies and their potential to affect credit risk in various sectors and asset classes.
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The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, particularly in advanced economies, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction. On this page, you will find Moody's research about key credit issues related to upcoming elections and political developments globally
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Market participants are focusing more on the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact investment decisions and to assist in the development of a more sustainable economy. We capture ESG considerations into our analysis and ratings when we believe that such factors materially affect a debt issuer’s credit quality. This topic page aggregates Moody’s research related to ESG considerations in credit analysis and the growth and development of green finance globally.
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