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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
September 18, 2017
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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Market Outlook
Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
September 14, 2017
What Might Trigger the Next Market Plunge? (Capital Markets Research)
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SFG Podcast
Moody's Talks:
Structured Finance
Podcast: How US retail industry's evolution affects CMBS and other securitizations
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Hurricane Impact
Hurricane Season
Read our latest research on the credit
impact of Hurricane Irma and Harvey
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ESG
Environmental, Social and Governance
Implications for fixed income markets
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Near-term growth prospects for APAC have brightened, supported by the pick-up in global demand. Sovereign credit profiles will benefit most in cases where the cyclical upturn combines with structural reforms.
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A significant portion of Moody’s-rated commercial mortgage-backed securities and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations are exposed to the effects of Hurricane Irma. Although it is too early to determine losses and credit consequences to deals, we show the transactions with the largest exposures in Florida.
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The aftermath of Harvey and Irma will lead to an increase in problem loans and a slowdown in loan production for banks with operations in the affected areas. In past US natural disasters, banks made sizable upfront loan-loss provisions, but ultimate losses were lower and manageable owing to loss mitigants.
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Our second one-notch upgrade of Ireland’s rating this year is the result of the country’s economy growing faster over the past 12-15 months than we expected, with real GDP growth at 5.1% in 2016 and 6.1% in Q1 2017. In addition, Ireland’s budget position is nearly balanced and public debt is continuing to fall rapidly. However, the effects of Brexit remain a possible risk to growth.
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The Fed, ECB and BoJ will take different paths to shrinking their balance sheets and normalizing monetary policy, but a transparent and gradual approach, and a global scarcity of safe assets, will temper the impact on financial markets.
European Union - Rising Challenges to Growth and Integration
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The European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face a challenging growth outlook and the risk of political fragmentation is rising. This page presents Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning growth and stability challenges within the EU
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The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, particularly in advanced economies, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction. On this page, you will find Moody's research about key credit issues related to upcoming elections and political developments globally
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Market participants are focusing more on the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact investment decisions and to assist in the development of a more sustainable economy. We capture ESG considerations into our analysis and ratings when we believe that such factors materially affect a debt issuer’s credit quality. This topic page aggregates Moody’s research related to ESG considerations in credit analysis and the growth and development of green finance globally.
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