Moody’s changes outlook on six European banking systems to negative

Extensive credit shocks are hitting sectors, regions and markets

We proposed changes to the Advanced Loss Given Failure component

Monitoring the effects of the outbreak

The six key themes shaping credit markets in 2020

27 Mar 2020|Moody's Investors Service

The South African government faces a continued deterioration in fiscal strength, structurally very weak growth and a debt burden that is set to rise even faster and to higher levels than we had previously expected.  The unprecedented deterioration in the global economic outlook caused by the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak will further exacerbate South Africa’s challenges.

30 Mar 2020|Moody's Investors Service

Prolonged risk aversion and capital outflows triggered by the coronavirus outbreak and sharp commodity price declines will exacerbate credit weaknesses in some low-rated, emerging market sovereigns. Those that need to access international bond markets to refinance their foreign-currency debt or that borrow heavily from private sector lenders in foreign currency are most vulnerable.

27 Mar 2020|Moody's Corporation

The economic and trade disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak is spreading from the APAC region to the rest of the world.  View Moody's latest analysis on our specially created topic page. 

27 Mar 2020|Moody's Investors Service

Corporate defaults are likely to climb as the coronavirus outbreak continues and oil prices remain low. Under a scenario of a sharp-but-short economic downturn, we project the trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate will climb to 6.8% in one year. In the event of a recession similar to the global financial crisis, our scenario analysis projects a default rate of 16.1%.

25 Mar 2020|Moody's Investors Service

We project a contraction in global economic growth in 2020 as the rising costs of the coronavirus outbreak and the policy responses to combat the downturn are becoming clearer. But there are significant unknowns, such as how long the virus will take to be fully contained and, by extension, how long economic activity will remain disrupted.

27 Mar 2020|Moody's Investors Service

As the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak worsens, we estimate global auto unit sales will plunge 14% this year. A sales rebound is likely in 2021, helped by an easier year-over-year comparison, but the strength of the recovery will depend on how soon the outbreak peaks and how quickly consumer sentiment rebounds.

27 Mar 2020|Moody's Investors Service

Significant job losses and widespread reductions in incomes will pose material risks to US consumer-related securitizations. As loan servicers offer temporary relief to affected borrowers, their actions will have mixed credit effects on deals.

Moody's Credit Outlook

Business conditions deteriorating in US, Europe, Australia; activity resuming in China

Federal Reserve's actions will mitigate liquidity challenges for life insurers

Default scenarios will rise as coronavirus-induced economic turmoil intensifies

Source: Moody's Investors Service
Weekly Market Outlook

Unlike 2008-2009, Few Speak of a Credit Crunch

We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions

Energy Sector Hard Hit in Mounting Downgrades

Source: Moody's Analytics
Source: Moody's Investors Service
Global sovereigns: Coronavirus magnifies credit weaknesses
30 Mar 2020
  |   Moody's Investors Service
Airlines' credit quality weakens as coronavirus bites (APAC)
31 Mar 2020
  |   Moody's Investors Service
Moody's EMEA Weekly Sovereign Credit Insight Call
31 Mar 2020
  |   Moody's Investors Service