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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
June 26, 2017
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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Market Outlook
Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
June 22, 2017
Low Bond Yields Extend an Aging Upturn (Capital Markets Research)
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The Big Picture
The Big Picture
New site features research on six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2017
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US in Focus
United States in Focus
Read the latest insight and analysis on the factors driving US credit markets
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European Union
European Union
Rising Challenges to Growth and Integration
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The Senate’s healthcare bill to replace the Affordable Care Act would be credit negative for most affected sectors. Health insurers writing policies in individual markets would benefit from a more profitable risk pool while diminished funding for Medicaid would harm insurers with Medicaid businesses.
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All 34 of the largest US banks exceeded the 4.5% minimum required common equity Tier 1 capital ratio under the Fed's severely adverse stress scenario, a credit positive. However, for the first time, this year's test incorporated the supplementary leverage ratio, which was more constraining for some of the banks.
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Greece’s agreement with its EU creditors will result in the release of €8.5 billion in the coming days, allowing the Greek government to repay upcoming maturities. In addition, the country has outperformed its fiscal targets in 2016, which will result in the stabilization of the debt ratio at 179% of GDP this year and a gradual decline in debt levels from 2018 onwards.
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The Spanish government has introduced a new public entity, Oficina nacional de Evaluación (ONE) to prevent overspending on large infrastructure projects that offer little economic benefit to the country. The new quantitative and qualitative limits will be positive for controlling regional capital expenditures.
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Pension investment performance has never been more critical for US state and local government credit quality. With liabilities surpassing $4 trillion, over the next three years costs to keep pace with liability growth could increase 51%.
European Union - Rising Challenges to Growth and Integration
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The European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face a challenging growth outlook and the risk of political fragmentation is rising. This page presents Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning growth and stability challenges within the EU
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The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, particularly in advanced economies, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction. On this page, you will find Moody's research about key credit issues related to upcoming elections and political developments globally
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Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.
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