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Market Outlook
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Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
August 16, 2018
Base Metals Price Slump May Dispute Benign Default Outlook (Capital Markets Research)
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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
August 16, 2018
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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Structured Finance Podcast
Moody’s Talks: Structured Finance
US Multifamily REITs' credit profiles remain strong, despite pressure from higher supply
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The Big Picture
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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ESG
Environmental, Social and Governance
Implications for fixed income markets
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As demand for new loan issuance continues to outstrip supply, investors have increasingly relinquished control over debt structures and credit terms. This has contributed to the convergence of terms within the high-yield bond and loan markets, and has laid the foundation for weaker recoveries when economic growth begins to slow.
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The handful of large European banks with retail and commercial banking subsidiaries in Turkey have narrow exposures to the system as a proportion of total assets. The banks’ capital resources and earnings-generation capacity will enable them to manage even a worst-case scenario with limited negative credit implications.
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The Common Equity Tier 1 ratios of the seven largest Canadian residential mortgage lenders are materially higher than in 2016. This should enable them to absorb higher expected losses in their mortgage exposures, which have continued to grow over the past two years since our last stress test.
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The trade, travel and investment restrictions that Saudi Arabia has imposed on Canada are likely to have limited credit implications for the Canadian and Saudi economies overall. However, Canadian universities will lose some operating revenue as a result of the withdrawal of Saudi students.
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Innovation will be credit positive for banks if implemented prudently with adequate safeguards and testing. Increased competition is also positive, but a threat to banks unable to keep up. A new OCC fintech charter is credit negative for incumbent banks but positive for fintechs awarded a charter.
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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Financial technologies, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, electric and autonomous vehicles and e-commerce will continue to transform production processes, business models and government regulation. On this page you will find Moody’s research about emerging technologies and their potential to affect credit risk in various sectors and asset classes.
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The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, particularly in advanced economies, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction. On this page, you will find Moody's research about key credit issues related to upcoming elections and political developments globally
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Market participants are focusing more on the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact investment decisions and to assist in the development of a more sustainable economy. We capture ESG considerations into our analysis and ratings when we believe that such factors materially affect a debt issuer’s credit quality. This topic page aggregates Moody’s research related to ESG considerations in credit analysis and the growth and development of green finance globally.
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