The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated existing disruptive trends and is causing a rethink of conventional habits, a reshaping of consumer preferences and a shift in competitive dynamics. Stephen Tu and Carolyn Henson of the Financial Institutions team discuss the potential longer-term impact on the financial services industry.
David Keisman and Julia Chursin discuss why US corporate defaults during the pandemic are likely to produce bigger losses for investors. Erosion in credit quality, structure and covenants will suggest worse debt recoveries for first-lien bank debt in particular. Meanwhile, the prevalence of distressed debt exchanges will not be sufficient to stave off subsequent defaults if the downturn’s duration is protracted.
Moody’s Analytics performs stress tests on state government budgets - estimating the amount of fiscal stress likely to be applied to state budgets under different recession scenarios and comparing that to what states have in reserve. The overall results of the COVID-19 exercise are unmistakably negative during this unprecedented time.