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View the latest insight on the six themes shaping credit in 2019

17 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service

Our revised aggregate EBITDA forecast calls for no growth this year and flat to about 1% growth in 2020, a fraction of our forecast from earlier this year. A slowing global economy and heightened trade tensions will weigh on an industry critically dependent on trade flow. Several segments within the industry are softening; we expect only aerospace and defense to have solid growth in 2020.

16 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service

The recent attacks on Saudi Aramco’s two oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia have resulted in a reduction of crude oil production by around 5.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) compared with an average production of 10 mbpd in the first half of 2019. The full extent of the credit impact for the government and Saudi Aramco will depend on the duration of the disruption to oil production.

13 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service

Although the government’s proposals would limit the role of the federal housing finance agencies, the basic framework of the US mortgage financing system would remain intact under the proposals most likely to be implemented, which is a credit positive for private mortgage insurers.

09 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service

Junior tranches of US & European CLOs risk impairment in a severe economic downturn. Junior tranche credit performance is at significant impairment risk in the severe downturn scenario, but senior CLO tranches are unscathed.

16 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service

The escalation of tensions between the US and China will further cloud the trade and economic outlook in Asia, with a predominantly negative effect at the sector level. At the same time, US importers will continue to divert some trade away from China, a credit positive for some economies and sectors in the region.

16 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service

Improvements in the future growth potential of many EU countries depend on stepped-up productivity and investment. These are only likely to materialise if progress, which has been patchy so far, is made across much of the EU in the implementation of structural economic reforms of labour markets, product and service markets, and markets that support innovation.

12 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service

US interest rates are likely to remain low for some time, which will have a large impact on the financial strategies of US bank and non-bank financial institutions. The low rate environment will encourage more risk-taking, as well as further consolidation of banks in the US.

Moody's Credit Outlook

Korean banks bolster investment in cybersecurity, a credit positive

EU Court of Justice advocate general's opinion on customer claims against IRPH is credit negative for Spain's banks

Jamaica's debt management strategy reduces rollover risk, improves maturity structure of debt

Source: Moody's Investors Service
Weekly Market Outlook

Bond Implied Ratings Hint of More Fallen-Angel Downgrades

The week ahead – US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions

Ford Motor Co. Headlines U.S. Downgrades

Source: Moody's Analytics
Source: Moody's Investors Service
Autos Briefing
17 Sep 2019
  |   Moody's Investors Service
Saudi Arabia Conference
17 Sep 2019
  |   Moody's Investors Service
Global Aerospace & Defense Outlook
18 Sep 2019
  |   Moody's Investors Service