The key factors shaping the outlook for major credit  sectors

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12 Dec 2018|Moody's Investors Service

Against the background of the ongoing recession across the national economy, Argentina’s provinces will face increased financing costs, weaker debt metrics and greater refinancing risks because of higher interest rates and exposure to foreign-currency debt.

12 Dec 2018|Moody's Investors Service

The credit quality of European banks will remain stable in 2019, despite slowing economic growth and gradual monetary policy tightening. Profitability will remain a challenge because of persistently low interest rates and structural inefficiencies. Capital has improved, however, and banks are building up resolution funding. Global trade tensions and fragmented politics in Europe will be key risks ahead.

10 Dec 2018|Moody's Investors Service

Regulation will strengthen China’s online financial services, which have grown quickly in the past two years, by forcing small, inefficient and risky third-party platforms out of the market. Partnerships between financial institutions and technology companies benefit both parties: they help financial institutions serve small customers more efficiently and provide monetization opportunities for technology companies.

11 Dec 2018|Moody's Investors Service

Global airline and aircraft leasing profitability will remain steady in 2019, while global shipping will contend with excess supply and trade tensions. North American railroad pricing and volumes will continue to benefit from a tight trucking market.

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10 Dec 2018|Moody's Investors Service

The outlooks for the Exploration and Production, Oilfield Services and Drilling, Midstream and MLPs and Refining and Marketing sectors in 2019 are positive, with EBITDA growth ranging from 8%-15% -- well above our 5% baseline for a positive designation. The outlook for Integrated Oil and Gas, however, is stable, with EBITDA likely to fall slightly in 2019 after rising around 30% in 2018 on higher oil prices.

13 Dec 2018|Moody's Investors Service

Global consumer packaged goods and US consumer durables’ 2019 positive outlooks are underpinned by strong EBIT growth of 4.5%-5.5%, as cost-cutting drives earnings growth. The outlook for global beverages is stable, with single-digit growth likely in 2019 amid subdued conditions in both the emerging and the developed markets.  The US packaged foods outlook is stable amid slowing operating profit and higher costs, but cash flow that remains strong.

05 Dec 2018|Moody's Investors Service

A generally supportive operating environment will help banks preserve the stronger capitalization achieved in recent years, and still low interest rates will support borrowers’ repayment capacity and bank asset quality. Interest rate rises will help improve profitability, though low returns will persist for many banks. Geopolitical and domestic risks pose the greatest source of uncertainty for bank credit in 2019.

Moody's Credit Outlook

Sanmina's extended revolver and new delayed-draw term loan are credit positive

Proposed merger of CBA and NIC is credit positive for Kenya's banking sector

Armenia's election outcome signals broad support for reforms, lowering the government's legislative hurdles 

Source: Moody's Investors Service
Weekly Market Outlook

Medium-grade’s worry differs from high-yield’s complacency

The week ahead – US, Europe, Asia-Pacific

U.S. downgrades dominate for the latest week

Source: Moody's Analytics
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EVENTS
Credit Trends - Dublin
15 Jan 2019
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Moody's Investors Service EMEA RMBS ABS Conference 2019
22 Jan 2019
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Credit Trends 2019 (Hong Kong), 29 January 2019
29 Jan 2019
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