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Market Outlook
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Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
September 20, 2018
Higher Interest Rates Suppress Corporate Borrowing
(Capital Markets Research)
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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
September 20, 2018
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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Structured Finance Podcast
Moody’s Talks: Structured Finance
US Multifamily REITs' credit profiles remain strong, despite pressure from higher supply
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The Big Picture
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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ESG
Environmental, Social and Governance
Implications for fixed income markets
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Brazil’s credit quality after October’s presidential election, and the credit quality of its banking, infrastructure and corporate sectors, will depend on the new administration working with congress to achieve much-needed fiscal reforms. Policy continuity would sustain the country’s economic growth and help stabilize government debt levels, while policy disruption would risk triggering a negative feedback loop that undermines investor confidence and the recovery itself.
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Despite the renminbi falling by more than 9% against the US dollar since April, China's foreign-currency reserves provide an ample buffer against this currency volatility. However, greater volatility in the renminbi is likely as China's current account gradually shifts to a structural deficit.
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The increase in costs is pressuring public sector budgets, weighing on business competitiveness and straining household finances.
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President Erdogan's executive decree that all property contracts between Turkish entities or citizens be denominated in Turkish lira more than outweighs the positive impact of the Turkish central bank's decision to raise interest rates to 24% from 17.75%. Risks to Turkey's domestic and external financial stability therefore remain elevated.
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Our industry sector outlook for independent refiners is positive. This is based on likely EBITDA growth of 13%-15% through at least 2019, driven by higher distillate margins and favorable crude price differentials. These factors should more than offset gasoline inventories that will remain elevated despite high demand.
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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Financial technologies, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, electric and autonomous vehicles and e-commerce will continue to transform production processes, business models and government regulation. On this page you will find Moody’s research about emerging technologies and their potential to affect credit risk in various sectors and asset classes.
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The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, particularly in advanced economies, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction. On this page, you will find Moody's research about key credit issues related to upcoming elections and political developments globally
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Market participants are focusing more on the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact investment decisions and to assist in the development of a more sustainable economy. We capture ESG considerations into our analysis and ratings when we believe that such factors materially affect a debt issuer’s credit quality. This topic page aggregates Moody’s research related to ESG considerations in credit analysis and the growth and development of green finance globally.
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