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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
October 22, 2018
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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Market Outlook
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Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
October 18, 2018
Stepped Up Use of Loan Debt May Yet Swell Defaults
(Capital Markets Research)
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Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets Analysis
September 21, 2018
Regional credit trends and differences
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The Big Picture
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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ESG
Environmental, Social and Governance
Implications for fixed income markets
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US packaged food companies have increasingly turned to M&A to fuel growth amid stagnant sales. But acquisitions have been funded mainly with debt, driving up financial leverage. With several companies’ leverage now exceeding sustainable levels for their rating categories, they are left with little cushion for shortfalls in operating performance at a time when the operating environment is becoming more challenging.
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The intermittent political tensions linked to Catalunya’s unilateral declaration of independence from Spain in October 2017 have had only limited impact on the region’s economic performance. Catalunya remains Spain’s largest regional economy, contributing 19% of national GDP, but has the highest level of debt among the Spanish regions we rate.
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Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (the BRICS), though often considered as a group, have disparate strengths and weaknesses in their banking systems. Overall, Chinese banks have the strongest credit fundamentals and Russian banks the weakest. The operating environment for BRICS banks is favorable, with economic conditions generally improving across the five systems.
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The Italian government’s significantly higher budget deficit targets for the next three years will keep its public debt at a high 130% of GDP, a level that makes Italy vulnerable to future economic shocks. Despite a short-lived boost to growth from fiscal stimulus, the government’s economic plans will not allow it to tackle the country’s low growth, which will move back to the trend rate of 1% at best.
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The credit ratings of US companies sponsored by the 16 largest private equity firms are significantly weaker than those of non-PE firms. This factor will increase the possibility of default for PE-backed companies when the economy turns.
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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Financial technologies, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, electric and autonomous vehicles and e-commerce will continue to transform production processes, business models and government regulation. On this page you will find Moody’s research about emerging technologies and their potential to affect credit risk in various sectors and asset classes.
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The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, particularly in advanced economies, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction. On this page, you will find Moody's research about key credit issues related to upcoming elections and political developments globally
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Market participants are focusing more on the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact investment decisions and to assist in the development of a more sustainable economy. We capture ESG considerations into our analysis and ratings when we believe that such factors materially affect a debt issuer’s credit quality. This topic page aggregates Moody’s research related to ESG considerations in credit analysis and the growth and development of green finance globally.
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