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Commentary, trends and forecasts from Moody’s Analytics economists

Key global credit themes for 2021

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23 Jul 2021|Moody's Investors Service

The one-notch upgrade reflects a material improvement in the underlying credit strength of Cyprus's domestic banking system, as well as the Cypriot economy's resilience to the coronavirus pandemic shock thanks to sizeable European Union funding and robust GDP growth prospects.

21 Jul 2021|Moody's Investors Service

Although a digital euro would increase financial inclusion and be an alternative to stablecoins, it would increase euro area banks' funding costs and reduce their fee income, hurting their already-weak profitability.

22 Jul 2021|Moody's Investors Service

The pandemic’s uneven effects on European labour markets and savings will influence consumer spending patterns, the availability of credit to individuals and the direction of government regulation throughout the region.

21 Jul 2021|Moody's Investors Service

Physical climate risk is broadly credit negative for sovereigns, particularly for emerging market countries with climate-dependent economic structures and low-quality infrastructure. Adaptation strategies to increase climate resiliency are widely untested.

21 Jul 2021|Moody's Investors Service

Elisa Parisi-Capone from the Sovereigns team and Peter Mushangwe from the Financial Institutions team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how liquidity risks have risen for Sub-Saharan sovereigns with less-developed domestic capital markets, and the pandemic-induced asset quality deterioration of some of the largest regional banks. Also, Lisa Jaeger discusses one sector in the region experiencing growth: telecom companies.

23 Jul 2021|Moody's Investors Service

Steelmakers face significant hurdles in reducing carbon emissions. Companies with higher margins, lower leverage and stronger liquidity are better placed to transition to greener technology.

Source: Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Credit Outlook

German floods will hit P&C insurers' profit, highlighting climate change risk

Despite financial inclusion benefits, digital euro poses disintermediation risks to banks, a credit negative

Strong US job and real estate markets will support credit as mortgage relief recedes

Source: Moody's Investors Service
Weekly Market Outlook

The Limits of Momentum

We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions

Europe Sees Mixed Rating Actions

Source: Moody's Analytics