Monitoring the credit effects of the outbreak

Introducing the six key themes shaping credit markets in 2020

Implications for fixed income markets and credit ratings 

Forward-looking insights into the global credit conditions and trends for 2020

Insights into leveraged loans and high yield bonds

14 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

Household debt in the US reached a 14-year high of $14.15 trillion at the end of 2019, but its share of GDP has been declining. While debt raises households' vulnerability to falling incomes or rising interest rates, the impact on consumption and growth in the event of an economic downturn is likely to be less pronounced than in the recent past.

10 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

Women in the US have strengthened their earning power as a result of increased higher education attainment. But they also have larger student debt burdens than do men and slower loan repayment rates, a potential source of financial fragility.

07 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

Boeing’s fourth-quarter earnings revealed higher cash costs from the 737 MAX grounding than we previously thought, and it will take longer – now 2023 at the earliest – to restore credit metrics. We estimate that the cost of the grounding will reach (if not surpass) $20 billion and our revised financial projections show significantly negative free cash flow this year and higher-for-longer funded debt.

16 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

We have revised our 2020 global GDP growth forecast down, reflecting the impact of the coronavirus in China and domestic challenges in India, Mexico and South Africa. For China, we have reduced our growth forecast to 5.2% for 2020 from 5.8% previously, and maintain our 2021 growth forecast of 5.7%.

10 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

In the latest installment of our Global Trade Monitor, we discuss how risks of a flare-up in tensions between the US and China will continue despite the temporary de-escalation of their trade dispute. US-EU trade negotiations are also proving challenging, while the possibility of US tariffs on imported autos and parts continues to loom.

13 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

With defaults set to rise in EMEA, early warning signs exhibited by speculative-grade companies provide advance indicators of potential trouble ahead. Excessive leverage for a company’s rating and exposure to a cyclical downturn are the most prevalent signs, with both particularly pertinent in the context of slower economic growth.

Moody's Credit Outlook

Strong consumption trends in the US mitigate sovereign risks tied to household debt

Financial irregularities at US subsidiary and profit warning are credit negative

Central Bank of Russia will sell 50% plus one share of Sberbank to the government

Source: Moody's Investors Service
Weekly Market Outlook

Baa-Rated Corporates Fared Better in 2019

We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions.

Amazon Sees Upgrade to $24 Billion in Outstanding Debt

Source: Moody's Analytics
Source: Moody's Investors Service
2020 Sustainable Finance Outlook (APAC)
20 Feb 2020
  |   Moody's Investors Service
15th Annual GCC Summit
10 Mar 2020
  |   Moody's Investors Service