Monitoring the credit effects of the outbreak

The six key themes shaping credit markets in 2020

Implications for fixed income markets and credit ratings 

Forward-looking insights into the global credit conditions and trends for 2020

Insights into leveraged loans and high yield bonds

27 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

The environmental, social and governance (ESG) fund market is poised for breakout growth over the next five years and beyond as ESG investing benefits from rising social interest in sustainability, unique investment product characteristics, and favorable regulatory trends.

20 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

Slower economic growth in China increases the risk of zero growth or even a contraction in general budgetary revenue for regional and local governments in 2020. However, the impact will vary across regions, and those that are currently most affected by the virus outbreak have stronger financial profiles.

21 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

The French government’s measures to ensure a more moderate rate of spending growth than in the past are insufficient to achieve a sustainably lower public debt ratio. France’s fiscal metrics therefore remain broadly aligned with an Aa2 rating, rather than a higher rating.

20 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

The operating profitability of Renault S.A.’s core automotive segment is likely to weaken further in 2020 after eroding sharply over the last two years amid declining sales volumes, rising R&D expenses and higher raw material costs. Renault’s weakening operating performance prompted us to downgrade the company’s long-term ratings to Ba1 from Baa3 on 18 February. The outlook is stable.

27 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

The ten-fold surge in coronavirus infections in Korea in around a week is credit negative for rated Korean companies across many sectors, particularly auto and tech companies, over the short term. The disruption to Korea-based production lines and weakening domestic demand poses further risks to the country’s 2020 GDP growth outlook, which we had lowered to 1.9% from 2.1% earlier this month.

26 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

We have lowered our global auto sales forecast as the coronavirus outbreak reduces demand and disrupts automotive supply chains. We now expect global auto unit sales to fall 2.5% in 2020, versus our previous forecast of a 0.9% drop this year, and expect sales to rebound only modestly in 2021, with growth of 1.5%. Our outlook on the auto manufacturing sector remains negative.

26 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service

The outbreak of the virus in the northern regions of Italy – which account for around 41% of the country’s GDP – adds further downside to the Italian economy’s already weak growth outlook, and increases the risk of Italy sliding into recession. Although the scale and duration of the impact is highly uncertain at this stage, temporary disruption to consumption and production is highly likely.

Moody's Credit Outlook

China's loan prime rate decline amid coronavirus outbreak will weaken banks' margins and profitability

'Brexit bounce' will support UK RMBS through first-half 2020 before longer-term housing market uncertainty returns

Coronavirus outbreak weakens China's demand-andsupply chain, a credit negative

Source: Moody's Investors Service
Weekly Market Outlook

Optimism Rules Despite Unfinished Slowing of Core Business Sales

We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions

Downgrades Account for 11 of 15 U.S. Changes

Source: Moody's Analytics
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Source: Moody's Investors Service
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