An update on US regional and Global Investment Banks following Q3 results
Read the September 2019 global default report, and more
Key themes shaping global credit markets in 2019
Explore the latest insight on ESG implications for global credit markets
Stay on top of relevant trends shaping credit markets with Moody's CreditView
Turkey’s recent military incursion into Syria has resulted in US sanctions which, while limited, are likely to increase economic risks because of the knock-on effect they will have on investor and business sentiment. The US Senate is currently considering further and potentially more wide-ranging sanctions, underscoring the importance of geopolitical risk for Turkey’s overall credit profile.
The stable industry outlook reflects our expectation that rated construction companies’ revenue growth will average 4% during the coming 12-18 months. Revenue growth is slowing with global GDP growth but is supported primarily by infrastructure spending. The outlook also reflects companies' average book-to-bill ratio, which indicates new orders signed versus revenue and signals healthy construction demand for the next 12-18 months.
New or expanded federal healthcare programs in the US, if enacted, would have positive societal benefits. But they would also have negative credit implications for health insurers, hospitals and pharmaceutical companies.
The rising prevalence of digital currencies will shape the development of digital platforms by companies in many different sectors over time. Credit implications for debt issuers will depend on whether they can streamline processes, reduce costs, capture value from customers and adapt to competitive pressure from new entrants.
Increasingly digitized market infrastructure providers and securities firms are generally highly attuned to cyber risk. None has yet been penetrated by the types of highly publicized attacks that have beset other sectors, but eventually a damaging large-scale attack will occur, and a single significant cybersecurity misstep risks having material adverse business and credit consequences.
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China's ongoing trade tensions with the US, slowing growth and the rebalancing of its supply chain away from imports present risks for a number of countries in the European Union. In terms of sector exposure, the machinery, motor vehicles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals industries account for the largest amount of EU exports to China on an absolute basis.
In the latest installment of our Global Trade Monitor, we discuss how trade tensions and protectionist actions are contributing to a manufacturing recession evident across regions. Despite recent announcements of a potential agreement, US-China negotiations are likely to remain challenging, and trade disputes and uncertainty will continue to weigh on global credit conditions.
Marina Cremonese and Myles Neligan from Moody’s Financial Institutions Group, talk about how environmental, social and governance risks affect asset managers’ credit strength.
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Brendan Sheehan from the Governance group and Lesley Ritter of the Cyber Risk team discuss the varying levels of transparency in cyber corporate disclosures across high risk sectors
European Commission’s approval of Greece's asset protection scheme will help banks improve their asset quality
Central Bank of Russia discloses relatively low scale of cybercrime in financial sector
US sanctions on Turkey increase economic risk and potentially reduce policy options