Household debt in the US reached a 14-year high of $14.15 trillion at the end of 2019, but its share of GDP has been declining. While debt raises households' vulnerability to falling incomes or rising interest rates, the impact on consumption and growth in the event of an economic downturn is likely to be less pronounced than in the recent past.

Women in the US have strengthened their earning power as a result of increased higher education attainment. But they also have larger student debt burdens than do men and slower loan repayment rates, a potential source of financial fragility.

Boeing’s fourth-quarter earnings revealed higher cash costs from the 737 MAX grounding than we previously thought, and it will take longer – now 2023 at the earliest – to restore credit metrics. We estimate that the cost of the grounding will reach (if not surpass) $20 billion and our revised financial projections show significantly negative free cash flow this year and higher-for-longer funded debt.