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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
March 2, 2015
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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Market Outlook
Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
February 26, 2015
Risks of High-Priced Equities Subdued
by Benign Default Outlook
(Capital Markets Research)
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Oil Prices
Credit Impact Of Lower Oil Prices
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China
China
Reform and Rebalancing
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Covered Bonds
Global Covered Bonds
Monitoring Overview
A quarterly overview of key credit measures
for Global covered bond programmes.
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04 Mar 2015
The strong US dollar will be credit negative for US-based multinational corporations in 2015. In particular, large exporters and companies that source their products abroad in US dollars will need to either accept lower margins or raise their prices when selling goods overseas. A few sectors do benefit from a strong dollar, notably US metal companies that have operations in resource-rich countries... Full report
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02 Mar 2015
Irish banks’ credit fundamentals have strengthened against the background of strong domestic economic performance, and we expect above-peer GDP growth for 2015. Prospects for further material improvements in the banking sector are limited over the next 12 months, as the banks address longer-term challenges associated with the large stock of non-performing loans and commercial property exposures... Press Release l Full Report
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27 Feb 2015
Although the credit metrics of Asian oil and gas companies will weaken owing to the recent precipitous decline in oil prices, most Asian sovereigns will benefit given the region’s status as a net oil importer. Our compendium of Asian oil and gas research—covering Asia-Pacific corporates and sovereigns—details the credit impact of the recent precipitous decline in oil prices… Full Report
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26 Feb 2015
The US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services issued preliminary payment and policy guidelines that indicate a decrease in payments to insurers for 2016 Medicare Advantage plans. Once again, this translates into negative credit implications for insurers because lower reimbursement rates equate to less attractive plan offerings, which, in turn, could lead to lower enrollment in such plans… Full Report
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24 Feb 2015
Low oil prices will have a generally favorable credit effect across the $3.7 trillion US municipal market. The impact will be positive in most governmental and infrastructure sectors because of lower fuel costs, increased driving and higher consumer spending. Toll and tax revenues will rise for many issuers. On the negative side, the credit quality of several sectors with revenues and employment highly dependent on oil and gas production will decline… Press Release l Full Report
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02 Mar 2015
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27 Feb 2015
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26 Feb 2015
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24 Feb 2015
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27 Feb 2015
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27 Feb 2015
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27 Feb 2015
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27 Feb 2015
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27 Feb 2015
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01 Sep 2013
China
Reform and Rebalancing
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The Chinese economy is embarking on a path of rebalancing, defined by a reorientation away from the export and investment-led development model towards a model where consumption gradually becomes a more important engine of growth. This process will be characterized by economic restructuring, policy reform, market liberalization, and credit deceleration, posing both opportunities and challenges for China's credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's rebalancing story unfolds.
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After several years of economic contraction, the euro area — still the second largest economic area after the US — returned to growth during the second half of 2013. This was the result of significant structural adjustment across the euro area periphery, institutional reform at the European Union and euro area levels and of a related reduction of market stress. However, growth is expected to be subdued for the foreseeable future, reflecting still large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (notably, poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area’s economic union, it is clear that the future growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, faces challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
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After a decade of rapid growth, emerging market (EM) economies in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America and Africa are now facing a more uncertain economic outlook. For some EMs, subdued developed world demand, tighter liquidity conditions and rising political risk will undermine growth prospects and expose credit concerns. For others, structural fundamentals such as policy reform, favorable demographics, and nascent investment cycles will continue to drive macroeconomic outperformance and, by extension, improving creditworthiness. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to the key credit issues impacting major emerging markets.
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Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.
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Islamic finance is one of the most dynamic sectors of global finance. For this reason, Moody's remains strongly committed to supporting its growing importance. We provide market participants with a complete range of credit expertise and experience to meet the emerging needs in this field including ratings, research and training services.
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