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Latest research and events covering Brexit

Learn about the key factors shaping the credit conditions for major sectors

Explore the credit risk dynamics across developing economies


View the latest insight on the six themes shaping credit in 2019

16 Jan 2019|Moody's Investors Service

Higher oil prices during most of 2018 have reduced fiscal and external pressures in the short term, but weakened the impetus for fiscal reform, leaving government credit profiles exposed to future phases of lower oil prices. Geopolitical tensions will remain a key source of risk in 2019, while climbing unemployment could pose political and social risks longer term.

14 Jan 2019|Moody's Investors Service

Slowing euro area growth is unlikely to trigger major financial policy changes among the region's companies. Many have a number of options to help shield earnings and maintain credit quality, including cutting capital spending, pulling back on opportunistic acquisitions and reducing dividends.

10 Jan 2019|Moody's Investors Service

Solid economic fundamentals will continue to underpin government credit quality in 2019. However, tensions between the US and China could weigh on growth potential, while wider risk premia would raise government liquidity risk, particularly for frontier markets. Potential shifts in domestic political and policy priorities also pose risks.

09 Jan 2019|Moody's Investors Service

The region's economic growth momentum will persist while broadly improved debt structures will mitigate risks from tightening global liquidity. Downside risks stem from evolving political landscapes and their policy implications.

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15 Jan 2019|Moody's Investors Service

Parliament’s majority vote against the draft withdrawal agreement means that a wide range of outcomes remain possible, from a ‘no-deal’ Brexit in March to a decision to remain indefinitely in the EU. However, the vote against the deal is not, in itself, sufficient grounds for us to shift our base case to a no-deal scenario in which we would formally review the UK’s credit profile and other affected issuers.

09 Jan 2019|Moody's Investors Service

The partial shutdown is credit negative for the US sovereign to the extent that it disrupts the US economy. A prolonged shutdown would negatively affect a range of sectors, including regional governments and consumer-facing industries.

08 Jan 2019|Moody's Investors Service

GDP growth in the euro area will continue to decelerate, but remain credit supportive at 1.9% in 2019 given strong domestic demand. However, euro area sovereigns face mounting external trade tensions alongside domestic challenges such as widening fiscal deficits, continued high public debt and, in some cases, rising political risks. This combination of risks has the potential to negatively affect confidence, further limit reform appetite and, ultimately, challenge euro area cohesion.

Moody's Credit Outlook

Avon's disposal of China plant is credit positive

Revisions to US bank company-run stress test requirements would be credit negative for midsize US regional banks

California reports a large drop in revenue as new governor presents budget

Source: Moody's Investors Service
Weekly Market Outlook

Upper-Tier Ba Rating Comprises Nearly Half of Outstanding High-Yield Bonds

The week ahead – US, Europe, Asia-Pacific 

Few Changes for the Latest Week

Source: Moody's Analytics
Source: Moody's Investors Service
Insurance Outlook 2019
16 Jan 2019
  |   Moody's Investors Service
2019 US and European CLO Outlook
17 Jan 2019
  |   Moody's Investors Service