The pandemic will compound and accelerate key global trends
China credit outlook amid the global coronavirus pandemic
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Moody's response to the coronavirus crisis
Key high-frequency indicators point to improvements in US consumer confidence and employment, but renewed localized lockdowns threaten to blunt the positive momentum. Spending across all income groups declined at the end of June.
Many such economies are unlikely to recover to pre-crisis levels until 2022, and only 40% will see debt stabilize or fall next year. Immediate credit risks are most elevated for those with high borrowing requirements, upcoming maturities and low reserves.
Moody’s will commit $1 million over the next five years to promote equal justice and advancement of the Black community
Vigeo Eiris has launched an enhanced second party opinion (SPO) service for sustainable bonds featuring a new impact assessment and revised report format. Last week, Vigeo Eiris also announced their collaboration with Euronext, who have created a new ESG index powered by Vigeo Eiris data.
Governments with strong legislative and executive institutions can best defend their electoral process from cyberattacks that aim to prevent voting and influence or alter results. Even sovereigns with the strongest institutions have increased credit risks from cyberattacks.
We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to fall by about 16%-18% in 2020 versus our previous forecast of a 6%-10% drop. Supply is likely to be significantly greater than demand in the dry bulk and container segments over the next 12-18 months amid the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, while the tanker segment will fare better.
The coronavirus pandemic and collapse in oil prices will sharply lower second-quarter earnings for some banks. Deteriorating profitability and loan quality also risk challenging banks’ capital. Our focus, however, remains on how quickly banks rebuild their capital over the coming years, and we are unlikely to change our credit view of most banks based on one quarter alone.
Victor Calanog from the Analytics team discusses how the US industrial property market (particularly warehouse distribution facilities and data centers) is set to further benefit post COVID-19.
Sarah Carlson of the Sovereign team examines Turkey’s economic and credit prospects following the coronavirus shock. Plus, Merxe Tudela Carreres of the Model Development group discusses the findings of Moody’s new EM Financial Conditions Indicators series.
US withdraws ability-to-pay underwriting requirements, a credit positive for payday lenders
UK government's Summer Statement adds further policy support to mitigate coronavirus-induced shock
Australian banks' extension of coronavirus relief measures will support RMBS