Against the background of the ongoing recession across the national economy, Argentina’s provinces will face increased financing costs, weaker debt metrics and greater refinancing risks because of higher interest rates and exposure to foreign-currency debt.

The credit quality of European banks will remain stable in 2019, despite slowing economic growth and gradual monetary policy tightening. Profitability will remain a challenge because of persistently low interest rates and structural inefficiencies. Capital has improved, however, and banks are building up resolution funding. Global trade tensions and fragmented politics in Europe will be key risks ahead.

Regulation will strengthen China’s online financial services, which have grown quickly in the past two years, by forcing small, inefficient and risky third-party platforms out of the market. Partnerships between financial institutions and technology companies benefit both parties: they help financial institutions serve small customers more efficiently and provide monetization opportunities for technology companies.

Global airline and aircraft leasing profitability will remain steady in 2019, while global shipping will contend with excess supply and trade tensions. North American railroad pricing and volumes will continue to benefit from a tight trucking market.