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Global Sovereign Outlook
Video: Global Sovereign Outlook
November 8, 2018
The key factors and risks driving sovereign credit in 2019
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Credit Outlook
Moody's Credit Outlook
November 12, 2018
Credit implications of current events.
Published twice a week.
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Market Outlook
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Moody's Analytics
Weekly Market Outlook
November 8, 2018
Gridlock Stills Fiscal Policy and Elevates Fed Policy
(Capital Markets Research)
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The Big Picture
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets Analysis
September 21, 2018
Regional credit trends and differences
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Credit risks will build in 2019 as economic growth slows, funding costs rise, liquidity tightens and market volatility returns. Trade tensions and geopolitical risks will likely escalate, while advances in digital technology and low-carbon transition will remain longer-term trends.
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Stabilizing power prices and tightening energy markets lift the outlook for unregulated US power back to stable for 2019. For regulated utilities, increasing debt to fund capital spending, as well as stalled cash flow growth in the wake of federal tax reform, will continue to depress industry financial metrics.
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Global growth will decelerate as economic cycles age, global trade slows, and advanced economies continue to gradually tighten monetary policy. Structural constraints, tighter global financing and oil prices at current levels will limit upside to growth in several emerging market economies.
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US President Donald Trump's administration will continue to drive federal policy in several key areas over the next two years. But the likelihood of increased congressional scrutiny of the administration will slow the pace at which the executive branch can implement its agenda.
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Our positive outlook for French regional and local governments (RLGs) in 2019 is supported by solid economic growth, stable debt and the 1.2% limit on RLGs’ nominal spending increases. We expect France's national GDP growth to reach 1.6% next year, which will provide additional revenue for RLGs.
The Big Picture
Six themes that will shape global credit conditions in 2018
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Financial technologies, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, electric and autonomous vehicles and e-commerce will continue to transform production processes, business models and government regulation. On this page you will find Moody’s research about emerging technologies and their potential to affect credit risk in various sectors and asset classes.
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The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, particularly in advanced economies, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction. On this page, you will find Moody's research about key credit issues related to upcoming elections and political developments globally
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Market participants are focusing more on the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact investment decisions and to assist in the development of a more sustainable economy. We capture ESG considerations into our analysis and ratings when we believe that such factors materially affect a debt issuer’s credit quality. This topic page aggregates Moody’s research related to ESG considerations in credit analysis and the growth and development of green finance globally.
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