A two-week US-Iran ceasefire is contingent on the Strait of Hormuz reopening, but disruptions to supply chains, energy markets, oil prices and various sectors remain risks to credit quality.
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Disruptions to the transport of energy and other supplies – and the resulting rise in costs – will weigh on consumer demand and profitability in these and numerous other sectors around the world.
High energy prices and lagging consumer confidence pose further risk for homebuilders. Still, the lack of housing supply in most markets will underpin future demand for years.
Domestic demand and data localization are pushing data center growth into emerging markets, but scalability hinges on the availability of power. Funding sources will diversify as the sector matures.
Ten speculative‑grade corporate issuers defaulted in April, down from 16 in March. In pessimistic scenarios, geopolitics, AI disruptions and private credit stress heighten the risk of a reversal.
We forecast a default rate of 1.4% among nonfinancial companies by April 2027, down from 3.1% last month. But further delays in energy-supply normalization would raise the rate as high as 5.0%.
Ten rated corporate issuers defaulted last month, eight of which were from Europe. The number of defaults in April was down from March, but the global speculative grade default rate edged higher.
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