Moody's Investors Service
ASIA PACIFIC WEEKLY
20-27 Apr 2016
 

In this week’s Asia Pacific Weekly, we look at the credit quality of Chinese non-property companies, which will continue to diverge over the next 12-18 months. Companies in the oil & gas, steel, chemicals, metals and mining, and commodity trading sectors are under pressure from China's economic slowdown, weak commodity prices, and industry oversupply.

In addition, the credit quality of many of our rated Chinese property developers will also stay weak in 2016, based on their 2015 financial results.

We also examine the proposed debt restructuring of state-owned China Railway Materials Company Ltd, an exercise which signals the Chinese government's declining level of direct support for state-owned enterprises that are not strategically important and that operate in competitive sectors.

Another theme is how the increase in leverage across Asia Pacific over the last five years could weigh on sovereign credit quality. Our research points out that sovereign risks could materialize either directly when the rise in debt has been concentrated in the public sector, or indirectly, when the rise in private sector leverage has been rapid.

In terms of events, we would like to highlight Moody’s Live Webcast and Teleconference on Asia Pacific Sovereigns: Policy Effectiveness, High Leverage and China’s Rebalancing Drive Outlook, to be held on 3 May.

We will also be hosting a briefing in Hong Kong: China Property Outlook: Weak Margins and Elevated Leverage Amid Slowing Sales Growth on 10 May.

And “Moody's Mid-Year China Conference: Understanding the Risks of High and Rising Leverage” will be held in Beijing on 31 May and Shanghai on 2 June.

Please refer to the list below for full details of our events.

 

Best Regards,

MinYe

Min Ye
Managing Director – Regional Head Asia Pacific

To access the information within this email we ask that you register to Moodys.com. Registration is complimentary.

 

 
In This Edition
 

RESEARCH

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Structured Thinking – Asia Pacific
[27 Apr] Articles include: Record Low Rental Yields Increase Risks for Australian Residential Property Investors; Australian Residential Mortgage Delinquency Map: Improving NSW Underpins Steady Performance; Subdued Commodities Prices and External Vulnerabilities Constrain Credit Profiles in Australia; and more

Sovereigns -- Asia Pacific: High Public, Private Sector Leverage Poses Credit Risks Across the Region
[26 Apr] The increase in leverage across Asia Pacific over the last five years could weigh on sovereign credit quality. The sovereign risks could materialize either directly, where the debt increase has been concentrated in the public sector, or indirectly, where the rise in private sector leverage has been rapid.

Korean Securities Industry Outlook -- Outlook Negative on Deteriorating Operating Environment and Rising Risk Profiles
[21 Apr] Korean securities firms will continue to face a challenging operating environment in 2016, as financial market volatility will remain high on lingering macroeconomic concerns. The resultant lower trading volumes are pressuring in particular the firms' brokerage businesses, raising risk as the industry pursues alternative, riskier revenue streams.

Property - China: 2015 Results Indicate Rated Portfolio's Credit Quality Will Remain Weak in 2016
[21 Apr] The credit quality of our rated  Chinese property developers rated will stay weak in 2016, based on their financial results for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2015. The financial metrics of many rated Chinese property developers weakened in 2015, as margins contracted amid rising land costs, and developers' lowering of their inventory levels in lower-tier cities. Debt leverage also rose to support growth, and to take advantage of cheaper domestic funding.

Chinese non-property companies: Credit Quality Continues to Diverge on Slower Economic Growth
[21 Apr] The credit quality of the Chinese non-property companies that we rate will continue to diverge over the next 12-18 months, with companies in the oil & gas, steel, chemicals, metals and mining, and commodity trading sectors still most under pressure from China's economic slowdown. Weak commodity prices and industry oversupply will continue to pressure the credit profiles of companies in these sectors in particular.

China Credit Market: China Railway Materials' Debt Restructuring Points to Increasingly Differentiated Government Support
[21 Apr] The proposed debt restructuring of state-owned China Railway Materials Company Ltd signals the Chinese government's declining direct support for state-owned enterprises that are not strategically important and that operate in competitive sectors.

Australia Credit: Subdued Commodities Prices and External Vulnerabilities Constrain Credit Profiles
[20 Apr] Australia's key economic metrics—including GDP growth and unemployment—will continue to outperform most developed economy peers. However, government debt will rise from around 35% of GDP for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2015 to 38% of GDP in the fiscal year ended 30 June 2018, which will limit the government's room to buffer against potential negative shocks through fiscal easing.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on & 21 & 25 Apr

[25 Apr] Australia Cuts Wholesale Backhaul Infrastructure Prices, a Credit Negative for Telstra; Australia's Declining Airfares and Traffic Do Not Reflect Structural Shift for Qantas and Virgin; Evergrande’s Capital Injection into Its Insurance Business Is Credit Negative; and more

[21 Apr] Yuexiu Property’s Sale of an Equity Stake in Development Project Will Reduce Leverage; Telstra’s Sale of Autohome Stake Is Credit Positive; Aldi’s Market Share Gains Are Set to Accelerate, a Credit Negative for Woolworths, Wesfarmers and IGA; and more


 

RATING EVENTS

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AUSTRALIA
[20 Apr] Moody's: NCIG remains on review for downgrade following status update of proposed capital restructure

CHINA
[25 Apr] Moody's assigns Aa3 rating to Sinopec Group's proposed USD notes
[26 Apr] Moody's assigns first-time A2 issuer rating to Tianjin Rail Transit
[26 Apr] Moody's assigns definitive ratings to Ford-sponsored auto loan ABS in
China: Fuyuan 2016-1 Retail Auto Mortgage Loan Securitization Trust

INDONESIA
[20 Apr] Moody's withdraws Berau's ratings

JAPAN
[21 Apr] Moody's downgrades Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal to Baa1; outlook negative
[25 Apr] Moody's assigns (P)A2 to Shiseido's shelf registration

PAPUA NEW GUINEA
[25 Apr] Moody's downgrades Papua New Guinea's rating to B2 with stable outlook

SINGAPORE
[25 Apr] Moody's withdraws OUE Hospitality REIT's Ba1 corporate family rating

 


 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

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AUSTRALIA
[20 Apr] Moody's: NCIG remains on review for downgrade following status update of proposed capital restructure
[26 Apr] Moody's: No rating impact on BOQ's Series 2008-1 REDS Trust after collateral substitution

BANGLADESH
[26 Apr] Moody's corrects Eastern Bank Limited's foreign currency deposit rating to B1 from Ba3 and issues a Correction to Text to the March 21, 2016 PR

CHINA
[25 Apr] Moody's: Zhejiang Province's reduction of natural gas prices has negative implications on city gas operators

KOREA
[21 Apr] Moody's: POSCO's improved 1Q results are credit positive; ratings unaffected
[25 Apr] Moody's: SK Innovation's robust 1Q 2016 results support Baa2 rating

NEW ZEALAND
[26 Apr] Moody's raises TPI for all New Zealand covered bond programs and lowers refinancing margins for New Zealand and Australian programs

SINGAPORE
[20 Apr] Moody's: UCAR Inc.'s strategic alliance and potential listing are credit positive for CAR Inc.

 


 

MOODY'S EVENTS

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Live Webcast and Teleconference: Tianjin Rail Transit Group Co., Ltd: Behind the First-time A2 Issuer Rating
Asia Pacific, 29 April

Live Webcast and Teleconference - Asia-Pacific Sovereigns: Policy Effectiveness, High Leverage and China's Rebalancing Drive Outlooks
Asia Pacific, 3 May

Moody's Live Webcast and Teleconference: Chinese Diversified Technology Sector: Resilient to China’s Economic Rebalancing
Asia Pacific, 5 May

Moody's Briefing: China Property Outlook: Weak Margins and Elevated Leverage Amid Slowing Sales Growth
Hong Kong, 10 May

FinanceAsia 5th Annual Borrowers & Investors Forum, Southeast Asia (Singapore), 19 May 2016
Singapore, 19 May

IILM 3rd Roundtable on Liquidity Management: ‘Credit vs. Liquidity
Jakarta, 19-20 May

Moody’s Inside ASEAN – Spotlight on Thailand
Bangkok, 24 May

Moody’s US CLO Briefing 2016
Tokyo, 25 May

Moody's Mid-Year China Conference: Understanding the Risks of High and Rising Leverage
穆迪年中信用研讨会:诠释高杠杆以及杠杆继续攀升的风险
Beijing, May 31

Moody's Mid-Year China Conference: Understanding the Risks of High and Rising Leverage
穆迪年中信用研讨会:诠释高杠杆以及杠杆继续攀升的风险
Shanghai, June 2


Click below to access teleconference / webcast replay. (*Free registration is required)

Australia State Capital Ports: Strong Market Positions Support Credit Profiles

Oil & Gas Ratings Review Highlights (Asia Pacific Call)

JD.com, Inc: Behind the First-Time Baa3 Issuer Rating

Chinese Non-Property Corporates: Credit Quality Continues to Diverge on Slower Economic Growth

Chinese Property Developers: Credit Quality to Remain Weak in 2016

 


 

MOODY'S TRAINING SEMINARS

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HONG KONG
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 16-17 May
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 16-19 May
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 18-20 May
Covenants and Documentation, 20 May
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 20-22 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 23-24 Jun
Counterparty Credit Risk, 15-16 Aug
Introduction to Derivatives, 17-18 Aug
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 5-7 Sep
Credit Reasoning & Writing, 8-9 Sep

KUALA LUMPUR
Islamic Finance – Risk Management, 21-22 Nov
Islamic Finance – Sukuk: Theory and Practice, 23-24 Nov

SINGAPORE
Fundamental of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 21-22 Apr
Credit Reasoning and Writing, 23-24 May
Insurance Credit Analysis, 25-27 May
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 1-3 June
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 11-12 Aug
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 15-16 Aug
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 17-19 Aug
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 31 Oct-2 Nov
Covenants & Documentation, 3 Nov
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 6-9 Dec

SYDNEY
Insurance Credit Analysis, 4-6 July
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 7-8 July
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 29 Aug-1 Sep
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 11-13 Oct
Covenants and Documentation, 14 Oct

TOKYO
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 1-2 Dec

 


  CONTACT US Back to top button  
 

Soo-Jung Kim
Representative Director
Korea and Mongolia
+82.2.787.2273

Vineet Gupta
Vice President
India
+91.750.625.0104

Asia Pacific Client Desk
Research & Subscriptions
+852.3551.3077

Yasushi Furuya
VP-Account Management
Japan
+81.3.5408.4272

James Flitton
Vice President
Singapore
+65.6398.8338

Maria Lee
Vice President
South China - Hong Kong
+852.3758.1338

Kelly Moy
Senior Vice President
North Asia
+852.3758.1323

Cynthia Zhao
Vice President
North China - Beijing
+86.10.6319.6566

Miki Zhou
Vice President
Central China - Shanghai
+86.21.6101.0227

 


 

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