中国经济增长与信用状况
贸易政策的不确定性、新冠肺炎疫情爆发等不可预期事件及长期结构性挑战对中国构成信用风险,加剧了国内各地区和行业间的信用质量分化
  • 摘要
  • 报告

  • 行业深度研究
    22 Apr 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    中国旨在减少对外国市场的依赖并改善长期技术发展的“双循环”战略将有望改变自身与日本和韩国的贸易关系结构。尽管如此,我们预计这三大东亚经济体之间长达数十年的经济一体化进程将会持续发展。这种持续且不断演化的一体化进程对三国企业的影响不一。

    行业深度研究
    07 Apr 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    近期违约事件并未降低我们对大多数受评非金融类国有企业 (国企) 获得支持的可能性的假设。我们继续认为中国政府有能力且有意愿向那些具有重要战略意义、与政府关联紧密并在各自行业处于领先地位的国企提供特殊支持 (在必须情形下以防止违约)。我们授予评级的国企大多数具有以上特质。

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    跨行业研究
    视频
    26 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Lillian Li of the Credit Strategy and Research team examines the outcomes of China’s closely watched annual policy meetings. She highlights that a conservative growth target for 2021 and a gradual normalisation of fiscal and monetary policy should enable the government to focus on quality over quantity of output and address structural issues, while avoiding excessive build-up of leverage.
    行业深度研究
    18 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    2021年3月11日,中国最高立法和咨询机构全国人大和全国政协结束了年度会议。在会议即两会期间,政府公布了2021年经济增长高于6%的增长目标,并公布第十四个五年规划草案充实了未来几年的政策重点。 增长将继续影响经济政策,更加注重质量。重点转向结构性问题将支持主权信用质量。较保险的增长目标将减少地方政府刺激增长的压力。大额定向投资将支持企业信用质量。

    VIDEO
    视频
    26 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Sales will increase for most sectors as the economy grows 7.5% in 2021. But profitability will be flat for most companies and capital spending will stall deleveraging. Refinancing risk remains high for low-rated private-sector companies.

    行业深度研究
    29 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    中国人民银行加强了对金融控股公司的监管,以此作为确保中国金融业持续稳定的全面举措的一部分。其两大目标包括:确保金融控股公司及其所控金融机构保持良好信用质量,并抑制企业的非金融业务的风险向金融领域蔓延。
    地区及地方政府
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    26 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The stability comes despite recent defaults by state-owned enterprises. But the geographic disparity in LGFV bond issuance will increase in 2021 because investors’ perception of government support for LGFVs in less developed regions will weaken further.
    行业深度研究
    23 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    湖南省的信用风险中等;经济发展主要集中在省会城市长沙。湖南省城投公司众多,其中以省政府和长沙市政府下属城投为主。湖南省控制城投债务的政策和措施对该省城投公司具有正面信用影响。
    发行人深度研究
    11 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    二十多年来,在以城市和基础设施建设为重点的政策的推动下,湖南GDP 实现快速增长。不过,近年来该省政策也导致资金缺口越来越大,令湖南依赖中央政府转移支付,并依赖省级政府发行地方债和地方政府融资平台(城投公司) 债务为基础设施融资。经济复苏和政策灵活性,包括其支持政府相关实体的能力可能因此受到限制。

    行业深度研究
    25 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Although we still consider systemic risk in China (A1 stable) to be low overall, pockets of potential risk are deepening for less resilient regions. The coronavirus shock has narrowed regional disparities over the short term but we expect them to reemerge, while debt burdens and contingent liability risks are increasing.

    行业深度研究
    01 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    2020年第三季度以来中国国内航空流量的复苏使航空公司恢复了一定的收入和现金流,从而增强了其偿付飞机租约的能力,这对于中国飞机租赁公司具有正面信用影响,但信用挑战依然较大。

    行业深度研究
    09 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    欧盟和中国去年底原则上达成《中欧全面投资协定》(CAI),代表了双方贸易和投资关系的重大进展。该协定如果获得批准和执行,可能会对中国具有正面的信用影响,但会对中国的一些行业产生短期的负面信用影响。所实施的措施也可能会有利于欧盟的许多行业和区内一些个别经济体。

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    访谈
    27 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Lan Wang of the Banking team and Lillian Li of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss why China’s move to open up its domestic financial markets to foreign securities firms potentially benefits all parties, despite operational hurdles. Plus, Marina Cremonese of the Asset Management team joins Lan to talk about the future for asset managers seeking to grow their businesses in China.

    发行人深度研究
    15 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    浙江的信用状况获益于庞大的民营部门推动下强劲的经济发展。但是,对土地出让交易的持续高依赖以及近期不良贷款的增加带来一定风险。我们预计其强劲的经济基础将支持其更迅速地从疫情影响中复苏。本报告是中国部分省份分析系列报告的第一期,该系列报告旨在分析这些省份经济和财政状况的独特优势和特点。

    行业深度研究
    15 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Deterioration in financial metrics is moderating as the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is becoming more broadly based and regulators are resuming de-risking measures. 

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    访谈
    10 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Gene Fang from the Sovereign team, Yubin Fu from Sub-Sovereign team and Nicholas Zhu from the Banking team discuss the credit outlook across a number of Chinese sectors in 2021, including regional and local governments. They outline that risks that are emerging as the government withdraws pandemic-related support and refocuses on deleveraging, but that despite rising defaults China will be able to mitigate any economic volatility.

    主要联系人
    李秀军
    副总裁 - 高级信用评级主任
    Lillian.Li@moodys.com