Moody's Investors Service
ASIA PACIFIC WEEKLY
Feb 7 - 14 2018
 

This week we take a closer look at China’s shadow banking sector, which barely grew in 2017 amid intensifying regulation. We expect this situation to further constrain the sector’s growth in 2018 and reduce its contribution to social financing flows.

Also on China, we comment on the large downward restatements of economic and fiscal data by some Chinese regional and local governments (RLGs) over the past year, which could adversely affect our view of the RLGs’ ability to support their state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Even in the case of high-profile local SOEs that are eligible for central government support in case of need, the restatements undermine the central government’s ability to accurately monitor developments at the RLG level and to effectively oversee and support these RLGs.

And our Asian Liquidity Stress Indicator fell in January 2018 to its lowest level since July 2015, benefiting from strong refinancing activity over the past 12 months.

On the events front, our Australian Credit Conference is coming up in Melbourne on 6 March and Sydney on 8 March. You can also still listen to a replay of our webcast on the 2018 outlook for APAC financial institutions here.

 

Best regards,

MinYe

Min Ye
Managing Director – Regional Head Asia Pacific

To access the information within this email we ask that you register to Moodys.com. Registration is complimentary.

 

 
In This Edition
 

RESEARCH

Back to top button  
 

Cross-Sector - Asia-Pacific: Heard from the Market: Tighter funding, geopolitics top risks to stable credit outlook
[13 Feb] Based on the cumulative polling results, most respondents in Singapore and Hong Kong appear to agree with our base case view that credit conditions across Asia will stay stable in 2018.

Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor
[12 Feb] Total shadow banking assets barely grew in 2017, as intensified regulation is having a growing impact across the shadow banking sector. This situation will further constrain broad shadow banking growth in 2018 and reduce its contribution to total social financing flows.

Regional & Local Governments — China: Recent data restatements cast doubt on RLGs' ability to support state-owned enterprises
[7 Feb] Even in case of high-profile local SOEs that are eligible for central government support in case of need, the recent data restatements undermine the central government's ability to accurately monitor developments at the RLG level and to effectively oversee and support these SOEs.

Asian Liquidity Stress Indicator: Asian LSI falls to lowest level since July 2015
[7 Feb] The reading of 24.7% for January 2018 fell to the lowest level since July 2015, and is below its trailing 12-month average of 26.5%, benefitting from strong refinancing activity over the past 12 months.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on 8 and 12 February

[12 Feb] Hong Kong welcomes virtual banks, increasing competition for incumbent small and midsize banks; Maldives’ political upheaval threatens growth and investment; Strengthened oversight of Bitcoin spot exchanges would be credit positive for Bitcoin futures providers.

[8 Feb] Nippon Life’s plan to wholly own asset management unit is credit positive; Motorola Solutions’ acquisition of Avigilon is credit negative; Limits on state ownership of Russian banks would benefit private banks.


 

RATING EVENTS

Back to top button  
 

AUSTRALIA
[7 Feb] Moody's upgrades Liberty Series 2017-2 Trust

CHINA
[13 Feb] Moody's upgrades Class B Notes of Bavarian Sky China 2017-2 Trust
[8 Feb] Moody's assigns P-3 to Rhythm Flaming's notes, supported by SCPG Holdings and Bank of Shanghai, Shenzhen Branch

HONG KONG
[8 Feb] Moody's affirms Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation at Aa2 with stable outlook
[8 Feb] Moody's assigns A3 rating to RMB notes guaranteed by Sinochem HK

INDIA
[9 Feb] Moody's changes outlook of Central Bank of India and Indian Overseas Bank to positive from stable

JAPAN
[13 Feb] Moody's upgrades the rating on Clover 2016 referencing SME loans
[13 Feb] Moody's assigns a definitive rating to Auto Loan ABS Program 1802 Series
[7 Feb] Moody's affirms SoftBank ratings upon IPO news

KOREA
[13 Feb] Moody's upgrades GS Caltex to Baa1; outlook stable
[9 Feb] Moody's continues review for downgrade of Daegu Bank

MALAYSIA
[8 Feb] Moody's affirms A3 ratings of Cagamas Berhad; outlook stable

 


 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Back to top button  
 

AUSTRALIA
[13 Feb] Moody's: GPT's FY17 results show high quality of portfolio
[13 Feb] Moody's: Transurban Finance's half year results within expectations
[13 Feb] Moody's: No rating impact on Series 2012-1R Harvey Trust after uplift
[12 Feb] Moody's comments on Aurizon's 1H FY2018 results
[8 Feb] Moody's: Mirvac's July-Dec 2017 results are in line with expectations for its A3 rating
[8 Feb] Moody's: AGL Energy's rating unaffected by strong half-year results

CHINA
[12 Feb] Moody's: China General Nuclear's proposed share offering is credit positive

HONG KONG
[8 Feb] Moody's: HKT Limited's resilient 2017 results support Hong Kong Telecommunications' rating

 


 

MOODY'S EVENTS

Back to top button  
 

Moody's Global Structured Finance Conference 2018
Tokyo, 14 February

Moody’s 2018 Australian Credit Conference: Improving economy underpins all sectors, but rising rates and commodities could challenge some issuers
Melbourne, 6 March
Sydney, 8 March

Click below to access teleconference / webcast replay. (*Free registration is required)

Moody’s Webcast - 2018 Outlook for APAC financial institutions: Impact of regulation and reform

 


 

MOODY'S TRAINING SEMINARS

Back to top button  
 

HONG KONG
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 28 Feb-2 Mar
Insurance Credit Analysis, 5-7 Mar
Advanced Financial Statement Analysis, 19-21 Mar
Enterprise Risk Management in Banks, 5-6 Apr
Problem Credits: Early Warning Signs and Effective Actions, 9-10 Apr
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 11-13 Apr
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 2-4 May
Corporate Debt Restructuring, 3-4 May
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 8-10 May
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 8-9 May
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 9-11 May
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 10-11 May
Covenants & Documentation, 4 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Jun
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 16-18 Jul
Counterparty Credit Risk, 14-15 Aug
Introduction to Derivatives, 16-17 Aug
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 16-17 Aug
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 29-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 10-12 Sep
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 9-11 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 29-31 Oct
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 31 Oct-2 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 1-2 Nov
Moody’s Project Finance Masterclass, 3-5 Dec

SINGAPORE
Insurance Credit Analysis, 26-28 Feb
Advanced Financial Statement Analysis, 14-16 Mar
Moody’s Credit Masterclass, 19-23 Mar
Advanced High Yield Rating Analysis, 3-4 Apr
Counterparty Credit Risk, 3-4 Apr
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 16-17 Apr
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 18-20 Apr
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 23-26 Apr
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 26-27 Apr
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 2-4 May
Risk Culture Building, 12-13 Jun
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 12-14 Jun
Structured Finance, 20-22 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 16-17 Oct
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 18-19 Oct
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 19-21 Nov
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 22-23 Nov
Corporate Cash Flow Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 27-29 Nov
Covenants & Documentation, 30 Nov
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 11-14 Dec

SYDNEY
Insurance Credit Analysis, 11-13 Jun
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 14-15 Jun
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 28-31 Aug
Insurance Credit Analysis, 3-5 Sep
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 6-7 Sep
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 29-30 Nov

TOKYO

Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 15-16 Mar
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 10-11 Apr

 


  CONTACT US Back to top button  
 

Asia Pacific Client Desk
Research & Subscriptions
+852.3551.3077

Kelly Moy
Associate Managing Director
North Asia
+852.3758.1323

Vineet Gupta
Vice President
India
+91.750.625.0104

Cynthia Zhao
Senior Vice President
North China - Beijing
+86.10.6319.6566

Maria Lee
Senior Vice President
South China - Hong Kong
+852.3758.1338

James Flitton
Vice President
Singapore
+65.6398.8338

Yasushi Furuya
Vice President
Japan
+81.3.5408.4272

 


 

© 2018 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (“MIS”) ARE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER.

ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moody’s publications.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be reckless and inappropriate for retail investors to use MOODY’S credit ratings or publications when making an investment decision. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’s Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY200,000 to approximately JPY350,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.