The EU proposals, if effectively implemented, will reduce the transition costs to wean member states off Russian gas and reduce security challenges. However, phasing out Russian gas will lead to structural changes in the EU’s energy system, which will be credit negative. Utilities, grid operators and energy-intensive companies with exposure to the countries most reliant on gas will face higher costs.
Asset managers find significant opportunities in the rapidly expanding private credit market, adding to assets under management scale and diversity and enlarging their influence in the US middle market. However, rising leverage, concentration of lending in certain industries and the opacity of the still-young private credit market have also increased potential systemic risks.
The direct negative effect of inflation and any subsequent interest rate hikes on the collateral backing most European residential mortgage-backed securities will be limited. However, UK borrowers are the most vulnerable to squeezed household finances among Europeans.
High-frequency alternative economic data point to multipronged challenges to global growth as shipping disruptions and shortages of key inputs persist, financial conditions tighten, and consumer and business sentiment weakens.
The growing amount of funding that non-bank lenders provide to corporations supports business expansion across the US economy, but it also helps drive rising corporate leverage and increases opaque risk in the financial system.
Tom Aaron of the Public Finance team and Shachar Gonen of the Insurance team explore the reasons public pension funds and insurance companies have found private equity and private credit such compelling investments, and why public pension funds face higher risk than insurers from these assets.
Further energy cuts or cyberattacks are the most likely outcomes of escalating tensions with Russia, but credit-negative effects would be limited to the sovereigns most reliant on Russian energy. However, the unlikely scenario of a wider military conflict involving EU or NATO countries would have much larger credit effects for a wider group.
央行数字人民币的正式发行和使用要求银行加大科技投入并提高网络安全和风险管理水平；同时，由于数字人民币支付即结算的特性，也将部分改变现有支付结算体系和货币供应结构。
企业融资部董庆雯认为以下因素导致债券违约增加：房地产等行业融资渠道收紧；投资者避险意识上升，尤其是在房地产开发商恒大集团出现财务危机之后；政府对国企的支持更有选择性。但相对整体境内外债券市场，违约发行人数量和违约金额仍将较低。若有迹象表明债券违约可能大幅上升或将触发系统性风险，中国政府将会出手干预。
政府可能支持具有战略重要性、与政府联系密切、居行业领先地位的受困国企，例如大城市的地铁公司。但如违约不可能引致系统性风险，政府将更倾向让战略重要性较低的国企违约或进行债务重组。
In US, increased private credit fuels asset managers' AUM growth
Comparison of 10 European real estate companies' performance and credit ratios
Compass’ PrimaLoft acquisition will increase leverage
Possible pause
We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions
U.S. downgrades outstrip upgrades