12 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
The number of corporate defaults globally totaled 209 in 2020, nearly double the count in 2019, with the oil and gas, business services and retail sectors accounting for the most defaults. The trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate was 6.6% at the end of December and will climb to 7.3% in March before falling to 4.7% at the end of 2021 under our baseline forecasts.
17 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Issuers with lower credit quality in consumer-sensitive sectors and those with weak liquidity would be most vulnerable in a scenario of broadly renewed global coronavirus lockdowns that are similar to those in the spring in terms of stringency and effects on economic growth.
Leveraged Loan Covenants - North America: A decade of loosening credit protections forces creditors to compromise or fight
17 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Eroded credit protections, including covenants, enable distressed borrowers to incur debt on terms detrimental to existing investors, making litigation and brinkmanship more likely.
Credit Conditions – Global: 2021 Outlook – Slow economic recovery and uneven pandemic effects will shape credit environment
09 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Global credit conditions will improve overall in 2021, aided by unprecedented COVID-19-related fiscal and monetary policy support. However, the initial rapid economic rebound is giving way to a patchier, more tenuous recovery as the pandemic proves hard to contain. Six key themes will shape the credit environment in the year ahead: Uneven recovery, policy challenges, rising debt burdens, digital transformation, environmental impact and social trends.
Outlook Connections Podcast Series - Episode 1: Uneven recovery, rising debt and tough policy choices will shape credit in 2021
09 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Anne Van Praagh and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss six key trends that will affect the credit landscape as the world deals with the coronavirus crisis. These include an uneven and inconsistent economic recovery, sharply higher corporate and sovereign debt loads and numerous policy challenges for governments as they grapple with the economic and social consequences of the pandemic.
07 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
As policy rates continue to decline globally, Banking team member Laurie Mayers examines the effect on UK banks, while Shunsaku Sato does so for Japanese banks and Farooq Khan for Brazilian banks. Plus, Olivier Panis of the Banking team and Stefan Kahandaliyanage of the Asset Management team update financial institutions’ readiness for the transition away from Libor in 2021.
Public Finance – US: Low interest rates create pension and investment challenges but lower debt costs
24 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
The Federal Reserve will continue to maintain low interest rates after the coronavirus crisis subsides in an effort to support an economic recovery. But for issuers with large employee retirement obligations or heavy dependence on investment income, the added credit risks stemming from low interest rates will outweigh the benefits of low-cost financing.
23 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
The benefits of low interest rates for corporate borrowers and infrastructure project debt issuers will depend largely on their exposure to local-currency debt. Low rates will challenge bank margins as asset risk and loan-loss provisioning threaten profitability, and they will hold back investment returns for many insurers.
Interest Rates – US: Federal Reserve’s average inflation targeting underscores lower-for-longer rate view
01 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
We view adoption of the average inflation targeting framework around the 2% long-term inflation objective as a formalization of a policy stance that the Fed was already following.
03 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
US money market fund (MMF) sponsors have yet to feel the real impact of the drop in shortterm yields that occurred when the coronavirus pandemic began in March, because a surge in their assets under management (AUM) has more than offset the potential loss of revenue from fee waivers.