A two-week US-Iran ceasefire is contingent on the Strait of Hormuz reopening, but disruptions to supply chains, energy markets, oil prices and various sectors remain risks to credit quality.
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We are raising our projections of capital spending for the top six US hyperscalers to $785 billion this year, and to nearly $1 trillion for next year, significantly higher compared with our forecast in March.
The disruption to shipping through the Strait has become a structural constraint to global energy supply that will last through much of the year with wide ranging credit risks for the world economy.
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Rather than working alongside office workers as a co-pilot, artificial intelligence is becoming a competitor and disruptor, too. This points to more uneven credit outcomes – and faster than expected.
Favourable demographics, rising demand for ethical and Shariah-compliant financial products and recent legislative progress underpin growth opportunities, but markets will take time to develop.
Company-determined strategies can either cushion or amplify stress when operating conditions are difficult, and can explain why some companies in the same sector have very different credit profiles.
Reforms that bolster balance sheets and investor confidence are key to sustained improvement in credit fundamentals. But recovery will take time, leaving these sovereigns exposed to shocks.
Credit stress is unlikely in the first 12-18 months. Longer-term, utilities with diversified water supplies and senior water rights will be best positioned to absorb the cuts.
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