Tragedy in Texas

Author: Firas Saleh, Director - Product Management, Insurance, Moody's

The heartbreaking loss of life resulting from the Central Texas floods, with a death toll that now stands at 119 (as of July 9, 2025), belies the beauty and serenity of this well-loved region.

Some 40 miles (64 kilometers) northwest of San Antonio, you find Texas Hill Country—a region in central southern Texas with scenic hills, plains, rivers, and vineyards. Shaped from limestone and dolomite, the region also features waterfalls, deep caverns, and caves, with Hill Country Wildlife District spanning 26 largely rural counties, which include tributaries for the Colorado River and the headwaters of the Guadalupe and San Antonio rivers.

Texas Hill Country attracts over 30 million visitors annually, and towns along the upper Guadalupe River, such as Hunt, Ingram, Kerrville, and Comfort, are havens for nature lovers, anglers, water sports, and outdoor pursuits. Along this stretch of river, there are many campsites, including some 18 children’s summer camps that run from early June to the start of August, such as Camp Mystic, a 725-acre site upstream from Hunt, which hosts around 750 campers.

Guadalupe River

The Guadalupe River is 230 miles (370 kilometers) long and is formed by two rivers, the North Fork and South Fork Guadalupe Rivers, with a confluence located near the town of Hunt. Flowing to the northern and eastern reaches of San Antonio, the Guadalupe discharges into San Antonio Bay. The upper and mid-reaches of the river host water sports from tubing to canoeing; further downstream, past Canyon Lake, water flows controlled by the Canyon Dam prove ideal for rafting.

The flow of the Guadalupe River between Hunt and Comfort, a stretch of eight or so miles, can be as low as 10 cubic feet per second. Since September 2024, the river gauge managed by the USGS on the Guadalupe River near Hunt, TX, has averaged a depth of one and a half feet (45 centimeters). During the months before the floods, the region had little rainfall with continued drought conditions.

Weather Forecasts Predict Heavy Rainfall

The region was anticipating some wet and stormy weather to interrupt Independence Day celebrations. On July 3, weather forecasters had kept an eye on a remnant mid-level circulation of Atlantic Tropical Storm Barry, as it became embedded within a broader mid-level trough containing tropical east Pacific remnant moisture.

At 1.45 pm local time on July 3, the National Weather Service (NWS) in San Antonio, Texas, had predicted that storms would deliver heavy rain and strong winds from the afternoon, and into the evening and overnight into the morning of July 4. The resulting system from these two remnant pools of moisture was developing into thunderstorms, which, if stalled over the region, could dump huge amounts of rainfall.

In response, for areas northwest of San Antonio, such as Kerr County, the NWS raised the risk of rainfall to 55%, with up to seven inches of rainfall in places, and issued flood watch warnings for south-central Texas. As July 3 progressed, by early evening, the Weather Prediction Center of the NWS suggested hourly rainfall would be above 2-3 inches and localized six-hour totals of over six inches of rainfall.

Flood Warnings

The seriousness grew as flash flood warnings were issued late on July 3 and the early hours of July 4 for Bandera and Kerr Counties, with the NWS stating on July 4 at 1.14 am that 1-2 inches of rain had fallen in the area, and 2-4 inches of rain was falling in an hour.

By 6.06 am, 5-10 inches of rain had fallen, and a flash flood emergency was called, requesting residents to seek higher ground immediately. At 3.53 pm, the NWS stated that up to 12 inches of rain (30 centimeters) had fallen—the equivalent of five to six months of rainfall.

The gauge on the Guadalupe River near Hunt, TX, and downstream from Camp Mystic, which averaged a depth of 7.8 feet and an average flow of 52 cubic feet per second based on the last 34 years of data, had started to climb. At 3:00 am, it was 10 feet deep, 21 feet by 4 am, reaching a peak of 37.52 feet (11.4 meters) by 5.10 am and exceeding 120,000 cubic feet per second (2,400 times greater than the mean flow).

Figure 1: Locations of the USGS river gauges on the impacted stretch of the Guadalupe River. Locations from left to right - Hunt (Dark Blue), Kerrville (Light Blue), and Comfort (Green). The graph shows observed river gauge height in feet. Source: USGS. 

Just a few miles further downstream, the gauge near Kerrville, TX, went from 1.8 feet at 5.15 am to 34 feet by 7 am. Locations further downstream, the gauge near Comfort, TX, saw steeper rises, increasing by 22 feet between 9 am and 9.30 am. The NWS declared that the Guadalupe had exceeded a 93-year-old height record.

High Velocity Flow

It was not just the catastrophic rise in the river level; the river discharge rate soared. On July 3, the river gauge at Comfort measured a maximum flow of 72 cubic feet per second. On July 4, the maximum flow was 177,000 cubic feet per second. This level of flow produced hydraulic forces comparable to those observed in dam break scenarios, where sudden surges of high-velocity water overwhelm downstream areas.

The devastation from the upper reaches of the Guadalupe River is catastrophic. The river banks were quickly and extensively overtopped, and trees, cars, bridges, and houses were swept away. Camps such as Camp Mystic, before the river’s confluence at Hunt, were hit early morning on July 4, saw 27 children and staff killed, and 11 people still missing, with camps further down the river heavily impacted.

Of the 119 confirmed dead, at least 95 were from Kerr County, with a further 161 missing. Into their sixth day, rescue teams search for more people caught in the torrent, with resources from Texas and beyond helping to restore some sense of normality.

The limestone bedded Guadalupe River, which in places is typically less than two feet deep, sits in a region nicknamed ‘Flash Flood Alley,’ which spans from west to east central Texas. The surrounding steep hills, streams, and shallow soil can quickly channel rainfall into rivers. The limestone river bed aids the fast flow for a river that has flooded more than a dozen times since 1978, and a similar tragedy happened in 1987, when ten campers drowned at a summer camp in Comfort.

Parting Thoughts

Several factors tragically converged to amplify the loss of life during the Central Texas floods. The event occurred over a holiday weekend, when camps and riverside areas were at peak occupancy with visitors and children. The river’s rapid rise happened overnight, catching many off guard while they slept, and in remote camp settings, access to real-time alerts or emergency communication was limited.

Even with awareness of the threat, the speed and force of the floodwaters made evacuation extremely difficult. This tragedy underscores the critical importance of taking National Weather Service warnings seriously, especially those related to heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Paying close attention to changing conditions and moving to higher ground when alerts are issued can save lives, particularly in flood-prone areas like the Texas Hill Country.

The recovery and reconnaissance, similar to flood events in Asheville, North Carolina, to Valencia in Spain, will take time and patience. Flash flood events are the most dangerous type of floods to occur. Even if the flood risk is known and early warning systems are in place, unless emergency protocols and chains have been established and tested within those risk-prone areas and communities, the death toll will continue to be high once the event strikes. 

With this event so raw in people’s minds, analysis is perhaps for another day, in the face of a horrendous culmination of factors producing rainfall that increased river flow to such damaging speeds.