European Heatwaves – Impact on Life Risks and Casualty Insurance

European Heatwaves – Impact on Life Risks and Casualty Insurance

Europe at present is enduring heatwaves where a number of countries experiencing record breaking temperatures in conjunction with drought conditions owing to lack of precipitation below the climatological normal. Heatwaves driven by temperature extremes affect large areas and could be classified as a multi-country event. In Europe, the current heatwaves span many countries including Spain, Portugal, France and even parts of Germany and the United Kingdom. The most problematic are the urban areas where heat emissions from the built environment leads to even higher temperatures and in some cases creates heat domestically trapping the heat within the urban areas making it uncomfortable for the urban population.

The exposure to heat could have adverse impact on human health and even results in death. While heatwaves may contribute to annual excess mortality, recurring events year after year would increase the all-cause (base) mortality rates as well as negatively impact the life expectancies. The impact on the human health and mortality from heatwaves is considered as preventable bodily injuries, thus give rise to liabilities to those who could minimize and contain the impact of heat. Hence there are implications to casualty insurance as well as direct impact to life insurance, pensions and annuities. This article addresses these aspects in some detail.

Excess mortality impact

Ambient heat exposure is well-documented as a significant risk factor for adverse cardiovascular health outcomes. Heat stress can exacerbate existing illnesses and place a strain on the cardiovascular system, potentially leading to conditions such as heat exhaustion, heat stroke and increased cardiovascular mortality.

The evidence strongly supports a link between elevated ambient temperature and adverse cardiovascular health outcomes. However, regional climate variations, population characteristics and disease subgroups must be considered when assessing the heat-related cardiovascular risk. Rising global temperatures coupled with an ageing population are likely to exacerbate cardiovascular health issues related to heat exposure (Liu, 2022).

 

Figure 1: a, Regional temperature anomaly (°C) averaged over the summer. b–f, Regional heat-related mortality rate (summer deaths per million) aggregated over the summer for the whole population (b), women aged 65–79 years (c), men aged 65–79 years (d), women aged 80+ years (e) and men aged 80+ years (f). Summer refers to the 14-week period between 30 May and 4 September 2022 (weeks 22–35).

Figure 1 shows the regional temperature anomaly and heat related mortality rates during the summer of 2022 (Ballester, 2022). While it shows a clear relationship between areas affected by positive temperature anomalies and summer period mortality rates, men of 65-79 years of age are more affected than women in the same age range. This could be explained by increased risk from cardiovascular disease among men than women. The mortality rates for 80+ men and women appear to be an order of magnitude higher than those in the 65-79 years. The Covid-19 pandemic over the period of 2020-2022 resulted in age averaged mortality rates around 2500-3000 deaths per million in a number of European countries such as Spain, France, Germany, UK, etc. (OWID). Comparing the figures (a range of 100-400 for 65-79 year olds) suggest that heatwave mortality rates could be quite significant given that this is over a smaller period of 14 weeks.

 

Longevity (life expectancy) Impact

Ambient outdoor heat accelerates epigenic ageing among older adults. Short and mid-term heat exposure may trigger immediate physiological responses, such as DNA methylation (DNAm) changes linked to the immune and stress pathways. Over time, prolonged heat exposure causes cumulative physiological deterioration, reflected in widespread epigenetic changes (Eun, 2025). Different “epigenetic clocks” (biological age predictors) respond to heat in unique ways due to their varying sensitivities to environmental stressors, with some capturing immediate responses and others reflecting cumulative damage. Older adults, particularly those in heat prone regions, may face accelerated biological ageing due to long term heat exposure. This effect is exacerbated by psychosocial stresses (e.g. disrupted sleep, reduced physical activity) associated with living in persistently hot environments.

The mortality improvement of an age cohort over time (trend mortality) is generally driven by lifestyle factors, health environment and medical interventions, in addition to any future advances in anti-ageing treatments and regenerative medicine (Moody’s RMS, 2022). Heatwaves impact the health environment component adversely due to epigenic ageing, thus have an impact on the mortality improvement among the older age groups, given that there is now an increased prevalence of heatwaves of the kind currently experienced in Europe.

It should be noted that the conditions that increase the prevalence of heatwaves (climatological temperature increase) also results in milder winter temperatures thus improving the mortality during the winter. This has been observed in scenario studies relating to temperature trends and mortality trends in the UK (Moody’s RMS, 2022), hence the overall impact is to improve mortality with climatological temperature increase. This is consistent with Masselot et al (2025) finding that mortality attributable to cold is approximately ten times greater than that associated with heat, accounting for an estimated 6.6% of deaths, compared to 0.7% for heat related mortality.

Northern Europe in colder climates is therefore expected to have a lesser impact overall to mortality improvement. This however may not be the case in warmer southern Europe where the heat wave mortality may drive the netj annual mortality impact, hence the impact on life expectancies would differ by location. These impacts would be reflected in the capital requirements for pension funds who consider life expectancies.

 

Casualty Insurance Impact

Study by Leal Filho et al. (2022) found that rates of all-cause workplace injury across all sectors increase with temperature. Relative to a 60degF (Fahrenheit) day (15.5degC), temperatures of 85-90degF (29.4-32.2degC) lead to up to a 7% increase in same-day injury risk and temperatures above 100degF (37.8degC) lead to an increase of 10-15% (Park etc al., 2021). It was also found that immediately following a shift in which the workers were exposed to heat stress, 35% of workers reported that they experienced heat strain and 30% observed a loss in productivity due to heat (Flouris et al., 2018). Moreover, even if workers avoid immediate injury from heat exposure, studies show that 15% of worker’s regularly exposed to heat stress experience long term kidney disease or acute renal injury.

Sector specific data shows that workers in agriculture, construction, firefighters, mining, transportation and manufacturing face an additional risk of injury from heat exposure compared to workers in other sectors (Xiang et al., 2014, Varghese, et al., 2018). This included risk from heat related illnesses as well as increases in injuries from seemingly unrelated causes such as wounds, lacerations and amputations, burns, falls, cuts, fractures, slips and trips. This is likely due to the nature of outdoor work directly exposing workers to heat, as well as the impacts of heat leading to decreases in general physical and cognitive function thus making it harder to prioritize careful behaviour and safety.

The above exposures to heat and their consequences to workers could be controlled by employers. Lack of monitoring and enforcing controls could lead to litigation brought against employers for failing to act and exercise their duty of care. Such litigation will fall under employer’s liability insurance providing compensation for the affected workers. Aside from employer’s liability, there is also a risk of cases against an employer’s management, thus triggering management liability policies such as Director’s and Officers (D&O) insurance.

The insurance impact in Europe is likely to vary given the varying guidances pertaining to extreme weather events and temperature exposures as there is no broad European Union-wide legislation on workplace temperature or weather events.

With respect to temperature, Spain has the most robust temperature legislation in the EU as current law mandates that temperatures must remain between 17degC and 27degC for sedentary workers and between 14degC and 25degC if workers are required to exert physical effort (Carbonaro, 2022). In the event of temperatures not reaching or exceeding these requirements, workers may report their employer for non-compliance. Germany also defines safe workplace temperatures and requires workplace monitoring. UK also has a guidance but no upper bound in the temperatures. Unlike Spain and Germany, Italy and France’s labour laws do not formally recognise a maximum working temperature despite dictating that working conditions must be safe. Given the increase in prevalence of heat waves in Europe, it is likely that there will be implications for casualty insurance unless proper guidances are in place that is written into law.

 

References

Liu 2022: Liu J, Varghese BM, Hansen A, Zhang Y, Driscoll T, Morgan G, Dear K, Gourley M, Capon A, Bi P. Heat exposure and cardiovascular health outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Planet Health. 2022 Jun;6(6):e484-e495. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00117-6. Erratum in: Lancet Planet Health. 2022 Aug;6(8):e644. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00167-X. PMID: 35709806.

Eun 2025: Eun Young Choi, Jennifer A. Ailshire, Ambient outdoor heat and accelerated epigenetic aging among older adults in the US.Sci. Adv.11,eadr0616(2025).DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adr0616

Ballester 2023: Ballester, J., Quijal-Zamorano, M., Méndez Turrubiates, R.F. et al. Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022. Nat Med 29, 1857–1866 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z

Moody’s RMS 2022: Moody’s RMS United Kingdom Longevity model, 2022 release

Masselot, P. et al 2025: Estimating future heat related and cold related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities. Nat. Med. 31, 1294-1302

Leal Filho W., Ternova L., Fayyaz M. M. et al. 2022: An analysis of climate change and health hazards: results from an international study. Int J Clim Change Strategy Management. 2022; 14(4): 375-398

Flouris A. D., Dinas P. C., Iannou L. G., et al. 2018: Worker’s health and productivity under occupational heat strain: a systemic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Planet Health. 2018; 2(12): e521-e531

Xiang J., Bi P., Pisaniello D., Hansen A. 2014: Health impacts of workplace heat exposure: An epidemiological review. Ind. Health. 2014; 52(2): 91

Varghese B. M. Hansen A., Bi P., Pisaniello D. 2018: Are workers at risk of occupational injuries due to hear exposure? A comprehensive literature review. Sad. Sci. 2018; 110:380-392

Carbonaro G. 2022: Too hot to work: What does the law say in your country about working in a heatwave? Euronews. Accessed Aug 29, 2022