Default Trends and Rating Transitions
This page provides a central resource for Moody’s research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    20 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    China's slower economic growth, companies' weak liquidity and investors' heightened risk aversion will be the main factors driving onshore and offshore defaults during the coming 12 months. Financially weak private-sector companies are more vulnerable than state-owned companies.

    DATA REPORT
    09 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The trailing 12-month global speculative-grade corporate default rate remained at 6.4% at the end of September, unchanged from the prior month. Our Credit Transition Model forecasts that the rate will peak at 8.4% in March 2021 before dropping back to 6.8% by September 2021, still well above the long-term average of 4.1%.

    DATA REPORT
    09 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate edged up to 6.4% at the end of August, from 6.2% in July and 2.4% in August 2019. The latest reading marked the highest default rate in a decade, reflecting the credit impact of the coronavirus-induced recession

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    26 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    If speculative-grade corporate defaults in the current downturn follow a similar path to those of prior default cycles, the trailing 12-month global default rate would likely climb to the 9.7%-13.3% range in February 2021, up from 6.1% in July and 3.6% in March.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    13 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Half of the 42 sovereign bond defaults since 1997 occurred since 2010. Political or institutional weaknesses caused 36% of the defaults, debt burdens caused 33%, chronic economic stagnation caused 17% and banking crises caused 14%. The coronavirus pandemic directly triggered two sovereign defaults.

    KEY CONTACTS
    Kumar Kanthan
    Senior Vice President
    Kumar.kanthan@moodys.com
    Sharon Ou
    Vice President - Senior Credit Officer
    Sharon.ou@moodys.com​
    Varun Agarwal
    Vice President - Senior Analyst
    Varun.Agarwal@moodys.com