Default Trends and Rating Transitions
This page provides a central resource for Moody’s research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • DATA REPORT
    28 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We downgraded the ratings of six companies to speculative grade from investment grade in Q4. The global fallen angel rate increased slightly but remained below the historical average.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    25 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Migration of speculative-grade ratings during 2019, how these compare with history as well as what they could mean for rating action trends in 2020.

    DATA REPORT
    11 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    This year began with four defaults in January, which translated into a trailing 12-month default rate of 3.0% for Moody's-rated global speculative-grade issuers. The global rate was unchanged from December 2019 but up from 2.2% in January 2019.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    30 Jan 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The annual default rate for speculative-grade financial and nonfinancial companies that we rate will edge up to 3.3% in 2020 from 3.0% in 2019 under our baseline forecast. Slower GDP growth, trade tensions and geopolitical issues underpin our forecast. Our forecast also factors in more high-risk issuers compared with a year ago.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    27 Jan 2020|Moody's Investors Service
     The number of defaults for 2019 shot up 69% to 71, compared to 42 for 2018, mainly fueled by oil & gas defaulters. In tandem with this rise, the spec-grade default rate rose to a 2019 high.

    KEY CONTACTS
    Kumar Kanthan
    Senior Vice President
    Kumar.kanthan@moodys.com
    Sharon Ou
    Vice President - Senior Credit Officer
    Sharon.ou@moodys.com​
    Varun Agarwal
    Vice President - Senior Analyst
    Varun.Agarwal@moodys.com