Default Trends and Rating Transitions
This page provides a central resource for Moody’s research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies.
  • SUMMARY
  • RESEARCH

  • DATA REPORT
    09 Jul 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    We recorded 22 corporate defaults in the second quarter, down from 24 in the first quarter. Oil & Gas sector was the largest contributor to defaults by industry in Q2. Across sectors, we expect the highest default rate in the Media: Advertising, Printing & Publishing sector among US issuers over the coming 12 months. In Europe, we expect Hotel, Gaming & Leisure to be the most troubled sector.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    27 Jun 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Default conditionality is fading away, allowing borrowers to take actions in default, or even following an event of default, while lenders bear the risk. With “covenant-lite” loans dominating the market and default conditions falling by the wayside, further credit deterioration can occur without foreknowledge or consent of lenders.

    DATA REPORT
    08 Apr 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    In this annual report, we update statistics on the default, loss and rating transition experience of Moody’s-rated government bond issuers for 2018, as well as for the period since 1983. The annual sovereign default rate stood at 0.75% as of the end of 2018, on par with the historical average for the 1983-2018 period.

    DATA REPORT
    17 May 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    This report presents the material impairments, loss rates and transition rates of CLO securities issued worldwide from 1993 through year-end 2018. Despite observed deterioration in collateral quality and transaction structures, we expect stable credit performance for US and EMEA CLOs in 2019.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    01 Feb 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect the annual default rate for speculative-grade companies that we rate to rise modestly to 3.0% in 2019 from 2.3% in 2018. More challenging market conditions will result in higher defaults in 2019 as economic growth decelerates, geopolitical tensions continue, credit conditions tighten and borrowing cost increases.

    PODCAST
    14 Feb 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    In this podcast,  we discuss the credit performance and default rates of nonfinancial companies in emerging markets. In addition to firm-specific factors, developments at the country level affect emerging market corporate default rates. Amid rising credit challenges, countries with structural weakness and less-strong financial metrics in the corporate sector will show greater vulnerability.​
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    KEY CONTACTS
    Kumar Kanthan
    Senior Vice President
    Kumar.kanthan@moodys.com
    Sharon Ou
    Vice President - Senior Credit Officer
    Sharon.ou@moodys.com​
    Varun Agarwal
    Vice President - Senior Analyst
    Varun.Agarwal@moodys.com