Default Trends and Rating Transitions
This page provides a central resource for Moody’s research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    17 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    The current US economic expansion, now in its 11th year, is the longest in American history. As growth slows and credit risks rise, market participants are increasingly interested in the potential length and severity of the default cycle in the next recession.

    DATA REPORT
    10 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Four rated corporate issuers defaulted in August, bringing the total default tally to 56 so far this year. The August tally included two defaulters in the Energy sector, which has had 16 defaults since January, making it the year's most troubled sector, followed by Retail, with seven defaults.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    09 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Although we do not expect a US recession in 2019 or 2020, the number of defaults and downgrades of rated US nonfinancial companies will likely hit a record high when the next recession does occur. The increase will result from a sharply higher tally of issuers with low corporate family ratings and loan ratings.

    DATA REPORT
    06 Aug 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    This study analyzes the credit and ratings performance of Moody's-rated infrastructure securities from 1983-2018. In aggregate, infrastructure debts have been less likely than nonfinancial corporate issuers (NFCs) to incur credit losses, especially over longer horizons.

    KEY CONTACTS
    Kumar Kanthan
    Senior Vice President
    Kumar.kanthan@moodys.com
    Sharon Ou
    Vice President - Senior Credit Officer
    Sharon.ou@moodys.com​
    Varun Agarwal
    Vice President - Senior Analyst
    Varun.Agarwal@moodys.com