2021 Outlooks
Moody's 2021 Outlooks provide forward-looking insight into the trends shaping global credit markets. From uneven recovery to social trends, our analysts explore the key themes underpinning sectors and regions in the year ahead.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS
  • Podcast & Video Archive
  • WEBINARS

  • OUTLOOK
    03 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Major economies will integrate their economic recovery initiatives with longer-term efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Emissions targets in the EU, the US and China will converge again, while new regulations regarding climate-related disclosures will subject the financial system to greater scrutiny. And diversity initiatives will begin to drive higher turnover on corporate boards.

    VIDEO
    VIDEO
    26 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    From vulnerabilities in software supply chains to the increasing frequency of ransomware attacks, cybersecurity risks will continue to be a more prominent credit challenge in 2021.
    OUTLOOK
    26 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Cybersecurity issues will continue to grow as a credit factor in 2021.

    VIDEO
    20 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Subdued and fragile growth prospects, together with calls for policymakers to support an inclusive recovery, will challenge fiscal consolidation this year. High debt levels and stop-start growth intensify the risk and potential impact of another shock.
    VIDEO

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    PODCAST
    20 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Jaime Reusche and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team discuss our negative credit outlook on Latin American sovereigns. Although we expect the region to broadly return to GDP growth in 2021, economic revival will take time and pressure on governments to boost spending on social programs will build in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.​​

    OUTLOOK
    13 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Donald Robertson and Ana Arsov of the Banking team explain how the lessons global investment banks learned from the financial crisis better prepared them to withstand coronavirus stresses, and how strong capital markets revenue buffered the large loan-loss provisions they booked during 2020. Plus, Mark Wasden and Bruno Baretta of the Banking team explore how coronavirus effects are driving the negative outlook for most global finance companies. 
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    OUTLOOK
    12 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    In 2021, governments across Asia Pacific face fiscal erosion as they extend their economic support, with the deterioration most severe for the lowest-rated sovereigns. Over the longer term, the pandemic will trigger or accelerate shifts in development priorities and supply chains which will drive new growth models. 
    OUTLOOK
    11 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Subdued and fragile growth prospects, together with calls for policymakers to support an inclusive recovery, will pose significant challenges to fiscal consolidation among euro-area countries this year. High debt levels and stop-start growth will intensify the risk and potential impact of another shock.

    11 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Tax revenues for Italy’s local and regional governments will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022 at the earliest, amid sluggish, uneven economic activity. In addition, rising coronavirus-driven healthcare costs are jeopardising the recent consolidation of regional healthcare budgets.
    Latin American Sovereigns
    07 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    As Latin American sovereigns emerge from the pandemic with higher debt and interest burdens, subpar economic growth and rising social pressures will weaken governments’ fiscal strength, challenging creditworthiness.
    07 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Argentina’s economy will recover in 2021 from the severe coronavirus shock, but very high inflation and reliance on funding from a weak sovereign will weigh on provincial governments’ finances. In addition, pandemic-driven social spending needs will worsen provinces’ already-strained liquidity.
    07 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
     Modest nationwide economic recovery in 2021 will not fully restore tax collections to pre-pandemic levels, and will therefore not offset expenditure growth.

    VIDEO
    VIDEO
    08 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Coronavirus-induced downturn will continue to impact the global securitization market in 2021. Recovery will be uneven with constrained issuance volumes, housing and workplace behavioral shifts, tighter underwriting and more ESG focus.
    OUTLOOK
    16 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The COVID-19 pandemic will continue to affect structured finance transactions globally. With vaccine distribution near, recovery in 2021 will take hold for many asset classes, but be more gradual for those hardest hit by the pandemic. Government aid to consumers and corporates, along with structural protections including subordination and cash flow diversion mechanisms, will continue to bolster transaction performance.

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    PODCAST
    16 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Barbara Rismondo of the Structured Finance team, Warren Kornfeld of the Banking team, Florence Zeman of the Public Finance team and Natalia Gluschuk of the Corporates team discuss the 2021 outlook for sectors exposed to the US and European housing markets. US nonbank mortgage lenders and homebuilders will report good profitability owing to government stimulus, while US housing finance agencies and European and US residential mortgage-backed securitizations will experience moderately higher delinquencies amid higher unemployment.​
    Podcast
    15 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    With a vaccine unlikely to be widely available for several months, Moody’s public finance analyst Valentina Gomez, airports analyst Earl Heffintrayer, mass transit analyst Baye Larsen, airlines analyst Jonathan Root and lodgings industry analyst Peter Trombetta discuss the outlook for travel and tourism in 2021 and consider what it will take to get travellers back on the road and in the air.​ >> View 2021 Outlook Gaming, Lodging, Crurants - US

    OUTLOOK
    16 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Despite continued uncertainty in demand because of the ongoing pandemic, we have changed several outlooks to stable from negative as economic activity shows signs of strengthening.
     
    OUTLOOK
    16 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We are maintaining stable outlooks on most global utilities and power sectors, although our outlook on the US unregulated utilities and power generation sector is negative.

    OUTLOOK
    15 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Pandemic-driven revenue declines will limit states’ capacity to respond to the emerging economic and fiscal effects of an ageing population and recurring extreme heat events. Additionally, state spending to promote the economic recovery will push up debt.

    OUTLOOK
    14 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
     Our outlook for finance companies globally is negative to reflect ongoing effects of the coronavirus pandemic, though several subsectors have been more resilient through adverse conditions.

    OUTLOOK
    14 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Aging populations, improving access and new, innovative products will fuel demand. But steadily rising expenditures will cause payers to restrict utilization and lower prices.
    OUTLOOK
    11 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The outlook for the not-for-profit and public healthcare sector remains negative as volume disruption, reductions in employer-sponsored insurance and rising expenses weigh on hospitals.

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    podcast
    11 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Kendra Smith, Tim Blake and Leonard Jones of the Public Finance team discuss the prospects in 2021 for US states, local governments, universities and not-for-profit hospitals. A strong economic rebound accompanied by a successful coronavirus vaccine rollout would boost tax revenues, while encouraging students to return to campus, and allowing hospitals to carry out more profitable elective surgeries. An uneven recovery may force some states and local governments to cut spending further, particularly those dependent on tourism and energy.

    OUTLOOK
    10 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Commercial aerospace activity remains well below 2019’s level but is recovering from the 2020 trough, while defense budgets are growing.
    OUTLOOK
    10 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The impact of the pandemic will accelerate some trends that predated 2020, with selective rather than widespread effects on commercial real estate materializing in the coming years.

    OUTLOOK
    10 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
     The outlook for retail brokers has changed to stable from negative; the outlook for market makers changed to positive from stable; and the outlook on exchanges remains stable.

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    PODCAST
    10 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Gene Fang from the Sovereign team, Yubin Fu from Sub-Sovereign team and Nicholas Zhu from the Banking team discuss the credit outlook across a number of Chinese sectors in 2021, including regional and local governments. They outline that risks that are emerging as the government withdraws pandemic-related support and refocuses on deleveraging, but that despite rising defaults China will be able to mitigate any economic volatility.
    OUTLOOK
    10 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Our negative outlook, driven by negative outlooks on banks, distressed asset management companies and leasing companies, notwithstanding stable outlooks on securities companies and insurers.