Growth: Macroeconomic outlook & insights on fiscal and monetary policies
This page provides a centralized for Moody's Investors Service macro risk analysis and forecasts.
  • SUMMARY
  • RESEARCH

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    18 Jul 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    This report introduces the Moody’s US Financial Conditions Indicator (FCI), a monthly composite of 18 measures of financial and economic activity. For June, the FCI was modestly positive but lower than the prior four-month average, partially reflecting weakness in business confidence indicators.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    09 Jul 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Over the past 12 months, European authorities have made further progress in reducing credit risks in the euro area. However, recent reforms fail to fully address the credit linkages between sovereigns and banks, while pockets of risk remain in both sectors.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    02 Jul 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Overall decline in RLG borrowing needs in 2019 masks diverging trends across the five economies. Access to capital markets is set to increase further in Germany, UK, Spain and France.

    OUTLOOK
    06 Jun 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Recent escalation in US-China tensions has clouded the global economic outlook, and risks of a sharper slowdown have risen. In the event of a significant global deceleration, advanced industrial G-20 economies have limited monetary and fiscal policy space for stimulating global aggregate demand.
    AMERICAS
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    15 Jul 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    In the inaugural issue of our State of the Brazilian Consumer publication, we discuss how the gradual improvement in employment since the end of Brazil’s severe recession of 2015-16 has contributed to consumption and economic growth. Retail sales are also slowly recovering, along with confidence.

    OUTLOOK
    27 Jun 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    We have changed the outlook for the Peruvian banking system to stable from positive. Sustained economic growth and moderate loan expansion will stabilize the banks' fundamentals.
    SECTOR COMMENT
    27 Jun 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    The results signal that Argentina's provinces were in a healthy fiscal position in 2018, which is advantageous in the current context of Argentina's prolonged recession and inflation.

    COMPILATION REPORT
    27 Jun 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    This compilation highlights our recently published research on Mexico, covering the last rating action, fiscal prospects in light of weakening economic growth, management of refinery project
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    05 Jun 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    After several years of weak growth, Colombia's economic activity is poised for a moderate pickup over the next two years. This recovery will be credit positive for the sovereign, large cities and certain other entities.