Growth: Macroeconomic outlook & insights on fiscal and monetary policies
This page provides a centralized for Moody's Investors Service macro risk analysis and forecasts.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    13 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Consumption will remain a bright spot in 2020, fueled by still-positive, if slowing, employment and wage growth.

    OUTLOOK
    14 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    We do not expect the global economy to enter a recession in 2020 or 2021. However, the current economic environment is characterized by structurally low growth, low inflation and limited policy space, making the global economy more vulnerable to negative developments.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    13 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    In our new publication, State of the European Consumer, we highlight how record employment and positive wage growth will sustain modest consumption growth throughout the European Union over the next six to 12 months. However, prospects of deteriorating global economic conditions are constraining consumer confidence, which is limiting some types of spending.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    13 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Public insurance proposals that Improve affordability and access to care for more households would be positive for US consumption. The fiscal impact on the US sovereign would depend on how these programs are financed and the effectiveness of cost saving measures.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    06 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    The EU has some of the lowest levels of income inequality in the world, but levels have risen over the last 30 years. This is relevant for the region's credit profiles because income inequalities can increase political risks, slow reform momentum, generate spending pressures and weaken long-term growth.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    15 Oct 2019|Moody's Investors Service
     Argentina’s consumer activity will suffer through 2020 in line with a shrinking economy, worsening economic conditions and a reluctance to make big purchases. Unemployment is likely to keep rising into 2020 as Argentina’s economic contraction extends for a third year in a row, adding significant stress, particularly to private sector workers.