Recession Risks
Recession risks are on the rise as the global economic slowdown becomes more pronounced. Late-cycle risks continue to build amid higher leverage.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    02 Dec 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Policy focus is shifting toward maintaining stability as trade uncertainty continues to weigh on China’s economic outlook. As a result, public sector leverage will rise modestly, led by state-directed investment.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    21 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect stable credit conditions for nonfinancial companies in most of Latin America in 2020, despite political noise in Mexico, slow growth in Brazil, and an outsized dependence on commodities in Chile and Peru. In Argentina, however, a recession, high funding costs, and inflation all point to negative credit conditions.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    18 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    The UK's policy framework has weakened over the past two years, with implications for the economic and investment climate for domestic issuers. The UK's broad fiscal framework has also weakened with successive governments shifting from fiscal tightening to large, permanent increases in public spending.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    13 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    In our new publication, State of the European Consumer, we highlight how record employment and positive wage growth will sustain modest consumption growth throughout the European Union over the next six to 12 months. However, prospects of deteriorating global economic conditions are constraining consumer confidence, which is limiting some types of spending.

    OUTLOOK
    19 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect global credit conditions to weaken in 2020 as a result of lackluster economic growth, trade policy uncertainty and the effects of an unpredictable political and geopolitical environment.

    OUTLOOK
    14 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    We do not expect the global economy to enter a recession in 2020 or 2021. However, the current economic environment is characterized by structurally low growth, low inflation and limited policy space, making the global economy more vulnerable to negative developments.