Recession Risks
Many large economies will likely enter recessions in 2020. The coronavirus outbreak, the steep fall-off in business activity and sharp drop in oil prices are creating unprecedented shocks around the world.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    30 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Some developments, such as the benefits of lower borrowing costs or challenges from fiscal austerity, will be immediate. Others, such as telemedicine’s potential transformative effect on the healthcare sector or governments’ need to confront new social mandates, will play out over several years.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    30 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The hardships of small and midsize businesses in the coronavirus-triggered recession will weigh on financial institutions, companies with a small business customer base, and certain structured finance transactions.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    26 Jul 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The QuantCube leading indicator of economic activity is in line with our view that the deepest shock to economic activity from the coronavirus crisis will be concentrated in Q2. But financial market volatility is picking up as risks rise of a new spike in infections.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    25 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Our new COVID Recovery Monitor, Europe, shows that consumers in the region’s five largest economies are emerging from lockdowns with spare cash, concentrated among people with higher incomes. Economic activity has picked up but is still far from normal.

    PODCAST
    23 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Marie Diron from the Sovereign team and Research Writer Natasha Brereton-Fukui discuss the vulnerability of sovereigns that do not reduce debt to GDP after the coronavirus pandemic eases. Sustained higher debt burdens would increase the risk exposure of sovereigns with weaker credit quality to future economic or financial shocks.​​>> View report
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    PODCAST
    23 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Michael Taylor and Laura Perez Martinez of the Credit Strategy & Research team join host Rahul Ghosh to discuss the factors that will shape the global credit environment once the coronavirus crisis recedes. While much remains unclear, the pandemic will likely accelerate ongoing changes in how consumers, businesses, governments and societies operate.​​>> View report

    Outlook
    22 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We continue to expect a gradual recovery beginning in the second half of the year. Our forecast assumes the likelihood of new coronavirus outbreaks without a return of widespread lockdown measures.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    05 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Early June data on trade, manufacturing and tourism indicate a firming of the global economy, with a recovery on the way in the third quarter, in line with our view.

    Podcast
    29 May 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    David Keisman and Julia Chursin discuss why US corporate defaults during the pandemic are likely to produce bigger losses for investors. Erosion in credit quality, structure and covenants will suggest worse debt recoveries for first-lien bank debt in particular. Meanwhile, the prevalence of distressed debt exchanges will not be sufficient to stave off subsequent defaults if the downturn’s duration is protracted.​ >> View report
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    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    28 May 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    High frequency and alternative data indicators in May indicate the economic shock from the coronavirus pandemic will be concentrated in the second quarter, in line with our expectations. We forecast a slow recovery in the second half of the year for most economies.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    21 May 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Alternative data indicators show a nascent recovery in global trade, and certain economies’ employment. Daily financial data in May show tightening spreads, increased lending and lower equity market volatility in the US and euro area.

    18 May 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The coronavirus crisis is depressing consumer demand, disrupting global supply chains and spurring export restrictions on medical and food supplies. In addition, the pandemic will complicate and possibly delay US-China “phase two” trade negotiations and UK-EU and US-EU negotiations.