17 Oct 2019|Moody's Investors Service
China's ongoing trade tensions with the US, slowing growth and the rebalancing of its supply chain away from imports present risks for a number of countries in the European Union. In terms of sector exposure, the machinery, motor vehicles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals industries account for the largest amount of EU exports to China on an absolute basis.
Global Trade Monitor – October 2019: Continued trade tensions increase recession risks, strain corporate earnings and test the strength of consumer confidence
15 Oct 2019|Moody's Investors Service
In the latest installment of our Global Trade Monitor, we discuss how trade tensions and protectionist actions are contributing to a manufacturing recession evident across regions. Despite recent announcements of a potential agreement, US-China negotiations are likely to remain challenging, and trade disputes and uncertainty will continue to weigh on global credit conditions.
19 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
Trade negotiations between the US and the European Union are at an impasse, with auto tariffs remaining a key sticking point and the long-running dispute over aircraft subsidies still unresolved. While we do not expect an escalation of trade tensions between the US and the EU in our baseline scenario, such an escalation would slow the EU's economic growth.
Sovereigns – Latin America: LatAm economies are less exposed to slowing global trade, but weaker demand from China impacts commodity exporters
16 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
Mexico, Paraguay and Bolivia are among the most vulnerable to a slowdown in global trade while Chile and Peru are most exposed to slowing export demand from China.
Global Macro Outlook 2019-20 (August 2019 Update): Global growth slows even as central banks cut rates to offset impact of trade disputes
22 Aug 2019|Moody's Investors Service
We expect global growth to slow below trend to 2.7% in 2019 and 2020, about half a percentage point below the level in 2017-18. Our below-consensus growth forecasts had already incorporated the expectation of deteriorating global growth and some escalation of trade tensions.