Reshaped Economies
Economic prospects are diverging across regions and sectors, with COVID-19 remaining the chief risk to global recovery. Shifts in consumer behavior, inflation concerns, labor shortages and supply chain challenges are creating new economic dynamics.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • Sector Comment
    09 May 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    The slew of US data releases confirm that the US economic conditions remain strong, but the economy is moving through late-stage business cycle dynamics at a rapid pace.

    Sector In-Depth
    10 May 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Our analysis of inflation targeting by central banks across a selection of G-20 economies supports our view that the current period of high inflation will ultimately recede. However, even short-lived spikes in inflation reduce real wages, lowering household purchasing power and increasing the likelihood of financial distress, particularly for weaker borrowers.

    05 May 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    High-frequency alternative data indicate that global economic activity has slowed, as sustained higher costs exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine erode consumer purchasing power, while concerns about longer-term effects of the military conflict dent household sentiment. Supply constraints remain a challenge globally.

    Sector In-Depth
    05 Apr 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    High-frequency alternative data indicate that the Russia-Ukraine crisis is exacerbating price pressures and supply shortages globally, and is accelerating the tightening of financial conditions. 

    Sector In-Depth
    05 Apr 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Surging energy prices and a new round of supply shocks resulting from the Russia-Ukraine military conflict are constraining access to key food and industrial commodities in Latin America. Higher commodities prices will benefit producers in the region but raise input costs for transportation and agriculture.

    Outlook
    17 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    We are lowering our global economic growth projections and raising our inflation forecasts as a result of spillover effects from the Russia-Ukraine military conflict. Economic risks will flow through three major channels: commodity price shocks, financial and business disruption, and security challenges.

    Data Report
    16 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Ten Moody’s-rated issuers defaulted in February, including eight Ukrainian banks, with more defaults in the region likely as the Russia-Ukraine military conflict continues. We also expect more defaults of Chinese property developers as funding access in the sector remains constrained.

    16 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Higher prices for energy, food and other necessities amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis, as well as heightene+d financial market volatility, will weigh on consumer spending and sentiment in the coming months in Europe and the US. Continued price growth will likely test the ability of companies to pass on rising costs to consumers. 

    Sector Comment
    14 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Soaring energy prices and suspended trade routes amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict could snarl global supply chains just as they were beginning to bounce back from the disruptions tied to COVID-19. 

    Sector Comment
    11 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    As the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reverberates globally, we are reevaluating our baseline macroeconomic assumptions and systematically assessing how evolving credit trends are affecting debt issuers and transactions in different sectors and regions.

    Sector Comment
    03 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Russia's invasion of Ukraine has increased risks to the global economic outlook. Spillover effects on the global economy will occur through three major channels: commodity price shocks; financial repercussions, both from sweeping new sanctions against Russia and market risk aversion; and security challenges associated with military conflict, or through cyberattacks.

    Podcast
    03 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss new risks to the global macroeconomic outlook from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Plus, David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discusses the credit implications of less economic scarring from the pandemic.​​
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    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    26 Jan 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    From the Omicron variant’s effect on economic recovery, to regulatory uncertainty in China and the direction of inflation and monetary policy, we answer frequently asked questions on the factors that will determine credit performance this year.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    09 Dec 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Demand-supply imbalances in the US and Europe are showing nascent signs of improvement, which support our assumptions that supply bottlenecks will begin to ease more meaningfully in the first quarter of 2022. However, supply disruptions are easing from a very strained starting point and will likely recede only gradually.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    09 Dec 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    High-frequency alternative data indicate an ongoing rebound in economic activity across most advanced economies, despite rising new COVID-19 cases in some countries.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    30 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The discovery of the new virus variant underscores our view that the COVID-19 pandemic remains a health threat, as well as the chief source of uncertainty to the global economy and a driver of financial market volatility.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    16 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
     Our modelling shows that most banks will recover their pre-pandemic solvency levels by the end of 2022 due to better economic performance and support measures.

    OUTLOOK
    04 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Weaker-than-expected growth momentum and rising inflation have dented some of the optimism surrounding the global economic recovery. But uncertainties with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain imbalances and labor shortages should diminish in 2022, ushering in a stable growth phase through 2023.