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Moody's Credit Outlook: 1 December 2025

Here are the top highlights from this week's edition of Moody's Credit Outlook:

Featured News and Analysis

UK budget shows commitment to fiscal consolidation but execution risks are high

Borrowing will remain higher in the next three years than previously assumed, but tax rises will increase the government's headroom against its fiscal targets. Deficits will continue to decline, underscoring the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and debt reduction.

Online gambling tax hikes in UK budget are credit negative for rated operators

The hikes are credit negative for the gambling operators we rate with significant exposure to the UK because they will reduce total revenue for both online gaming and betting operations.

Pertamina's large dividend payment signals aggressive financial policy, a credit negative

The company’s sizable cash balance and access to credit facilities provide sufficient liquidity to accommodate the $2.59 billion dividend payment without an immediate deterioration in credit quality. However, the transaction limits the company’s ability to absorb operational or market shocks, signaling a more aggressive financial policy.

Credit in Depth

Private credit is fast becoming a critical source of alternative funding for companies in Australia, especially those with weaker credit profiles that have difficulty obtaining bank loans or issuing bonds. The pace of growth has attracted increased regulatory oversight. Even so, we do not believe this will ultimately hinder the market's expansion given regulators' acknowledgment about the benefits of private credit to Australia's financial system.