Why Private Credit’s Volatility Won’t Stop Its Growth

The private credit market has morphed into a powerhouse, deriving its allure from low volatility, stable and high predictable returns.

But less than a year after the so-called “golden age” of private credit, the asset class is now grappling with a period of uncertainty following its astronomical growth.

That volatility includes a wave of redemptions – when investors go to credit funds and ask for their money back — on top of disruption from AI and calls for more transparency. The wildcard of retail investors also raises the stakes.

In this episode, we discuss the negative outlook for perpetual non-traded BDCs (Business Development Companies), the impact from the Middle East conflict, exposure for the software sector, and what regulators might do next.

Host: Gabriel Agostini, Assistant Vice President, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s Ratings

Guests: Marc Pinto, Global Head of Private Credit, Moody’s Ratings; Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings

Related Research:

• Private Credit – Global Volatility will intensify focus on liquidity, transparency 22 April 2026 https://www.moodys.com/research/doc--PBC_1476768?cid=web-ntrnlbnnr-19993
• Business Development Companies – US – Outlook changes to negative on increased redemption pressures, higher leverage 7 April 2026 https://www.moodys.com/research/Business-Development-Companies-US-Outlook-changes-to-negative-on-increased-Outlook--PBC_1477612
• Private Credit – North America – Credit Estimates point to eroding credit quality among middle-market borrowers 13 April 2026 https://www.moodys.com/research/Private-Credit-North-America-Credit-Estimates-point-to-eroding-credit-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1472060
• Banks – US – Aggregate loan exposure to non-depository financial institutions rises to $1.4 trillion 31 March 2026 https://www.moodys.com/research/Banks-US-Aggregate-loan-exposure-to-non-depository-financial-institutions-rises-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1478021
• Moody’s Private Credit Insights https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/credit-risk/private-credit.html

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