Faced with slowing domestic growth and rising geopolitical tensions, China is changing its export strategy and selling different things, to different customers, in different places.
Electric vehicles, solar panels and AI-enabled services are replacing low-cost manufactured goods. And the destination? Increasingly, emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America and beyond.
China's evolving overseas footprint will have far-reaching credit consequences. From autos in Europe to metals in Latin America and clean energy infrastructure in Asia, this is a global story with local credit impact.
The looming question remains: who can adapt and who will buckle under the sustained pressure?
Host: Matt Robinson, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Ratings
Guest: Nick Hill, Global Head of Credit Strategy and Guidance, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
• Macroeconomics – China: Overseas investment will accelerate, with focus on select sectors and destinations 30 June 2025 (https://www.moodys.com/research/Macroeconomics-China-Overseas-investment-will-accelerate-with-focus-on-select-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1449981#d70e3c211c4b7bc1f9d60b1f483fc59e)
• Trade – Asia-Pacific: US focus on origin of imports increases risks for Asia-Pacific supply chains 20 Oct 2025 (https://www.moodys.com/research/Trade-Asia-Pacific-US-focus-on-origin-of-imports-increases-risks-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1458251#290612199861c31d1036b185b4e69b75)
• Geopolitical risks and China’s excess capacity expose ASEAN economies’ vulnerabilities 2 July 2025 (https://www.moodys.com/web/resources/en/us/insights/data-stories/asean-manufacturing-2025.html)
• Moody’s Insights – China Growth and Credit (https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/credit-risk/emerging-markets/china.html)
Listen: • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/credit-currents-moodys-ratings/id1524293080 • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6zwovuEpg7Q7mDHZMw6UJC
© 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video.
