Outlooks 2026: Corporates are stable across major regions worldwide

Executive Summary

North America Corporates 2026 Outlook: Stable as rates and inflation slowly fall but trade uncertainty adds risk

Slowly falling inflation and interest rates will drive modest but steady profits in most industries, as will lower tax rates and, for some, increasing investments in artificial intelligence (AI). But volatile US (Aa1 stable) policies, especially around tariffs, will limit upside potential for many industries that will struggle to pass on higher costs to increasingly cautious consumers, particularly those with lower incomes. The US economy continues to show moderate resilience amid persistent uncertainty, but a broad set of indicators suggests that momentum will slow, adding risk to our stable outlook.

• Technology upgrades, policy support and debt reduction anchor a stable outlook
• Technology and innovation will drive growth across sectors
• Government policies support industry sustainability
• Muted consumption and property weakness among key constraints
• Geopolitical tensions remain a major risk

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Executive Summary

China Corporates 2026 Outlook - Stable as tech upgrades and debt reduction offset demand, trade risks

Tech-driven revenue growth and proactive debt reduction across most industries will support a slight decrease in leverage over the next 12 months, even as subdued demand constrains profitability. Government measures to promote high-quality growth will provide additional support. Property sales will likely continue declining, though at a slower pace, with signs of gradual stabilization. While China and the US have reached a trade agreement, uncertainty persists and renewed escalation remains a major risk to China's growth and corporate credit strength.

• Geopolitical and policy shifts ripple across EMs
• Local currency markets and alternative financing vehicles are growing
• Artificial intelligence and data centers bring potential for both growth and disruption
• Costly natural disasters strain households, businesses and governments

Executive Summary

EMEA Corporates 2026 Outlook - Stable as growth strengthens, financial conditions easier

The outlook for credit conditions for nonfinancial companies in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) for 2026 is stable. We expect growth to pick up modestly, and financial conditions have eased. While uncertainty about trade policy persists, EMEA companies have so far only felt limited effects from US tariffs.

• The outlook for credit conditions for nonfinancial companies in EMEA for 2026 is stable
• Political polarization and digital disruption, including the advance of AI, are among major factors influencing credit conditions
• Despite the generally supportive backdrop, sectors such as autos, chemicals and energy continue to face challenges
• Higher European defense and infrastructure spending will boost some sectors
• Outside Europe, conditions are broadly supportive

Executive Summary

APAC ex China Corporates 2026 Outlook - Stable as continuing earnings growth defies trade and tech shifts

Steady average GDP growth of around 3.4% supports business activity and corporate earnings. India (Baa3 stable) and Australia (Aaa stable) will lead growth among emerging and advanced markets on robust domestic consumption. Inflation will remain below recent peaks, enabling accommodative monetary policies that support financing conditions. Spending on technology, especially AI, will continue, benefiting sectors along the value chain.

Key takeways:

• Earnings for most sectors will grow in 2026; capital spending is stabilizing
• Geopolitical tensions drive investment priorities and supply chain shifts
• Rated companies' refinancing risk is limited
• Technological advances and AI create opportunities

Executive Summary

LatAm and Caribbean 2026 Outlook - Stable amid unsettled political and financial environment

Despite Latin America's steady overall conditions for nonfinancial companies in 2026, economic growth remains subdued and inflation remains generally high. Credit risks for nonfinancial companies in Latin America will largely reflect the four key themes that we foresee for credit conditions worldwide for 2026: political polarization, shifting financial landscape, digital disruption, and costly natural disasters.

• Regional credit conditions are resilient despite key risks from geopolitical and trade shifts, as well as political polarization. 
• Latin America's financial landscape will continue to shift as central banks adjust monetary policies and countries seek new trade destinations. 
• Digital disruption will have increasing knock-on effects on the region's nonfinancial companies and sectors. 
• Corporate sectors in Latin America and the region will always be susceptible to natural disasters and other forms of environmental risk.