2025 North Atlantic hurricane season: Another potentially active season on the cards?

For the (re)insurance industry, the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season was headlined by the impacts and losses from Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Helene, in late September 2024, became the strongest hurricane (by wind speed) on record to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region and the third hurricane within 13 months to make landfall in the region. On October 9, 2024, Milton then became the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on the central-west coast of Florida.

The season’s other U.S. landfalling hurricanes—Beryl, Debby, and Francine—each caused notable localized impacts across the U.S. Gulf Coast.

With June 1 heralding the official start of the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season, and following an above-average 2024 season that saw five U.S. landfalling hurricanes for only the seventh time on record, focus now turns to what might lie ahead in 2025.

Moody's RMS™ Event Response has recently published its Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Outlook report, which includes all the seasonal activity forecasts for the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific Basins, a detailed review the meteorological and oceanic factors influencing the forecasts, and a breakdown of the historical accuracy of seasonal forecasts in the North Atlantic. Moody's RMS Event Response customers can download the full report via the Support Center.

An average to above-average 2025 season expected

According to the latest seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts issued by numerous meteorological agencies and groups, there is strong consensus that activity during the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be average to above-average.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 are forecast to reach hurricane intensity. Of those, three to five are expected to attain major hurricane intensity (Category 3 or stronger). These predicted ranges are centered above but include NOAA’s 1991–2020 U.S. Climate Normals seasonal average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

NOAA gives a 60 percent chance that the season will be above normal, a 30 percent chance it will be near normal, and only a 10 percent chance that the season will conclude below normal.

Outlooks from most of the other meteorological forecast agencies and groups are broadly in line with the guidance issued by NOAA in calling for an average (at the lower end of the forecast ranges) or an above-average season (at the higher end of the forecast ranges).

If NOAA’s forecasts verify at the middle or upper end of their pre-season forecast ranges, then the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season would be the third consecutive above-normal season and the second consecutive extremely active season. It would also mark the ninth above-normal season in the past ten years (2016–2025).

Not all tropical cyclones make landfall, but long-term statistics indicate that the probability of a hurricane making landfall in the U.S. increases during more active seasons.

Landfall forecasts from Colorado State University (CSU) anticipate a 51 percent probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. this season. Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) forecasts three hurricanes and five tropical storms to make landfall over the contiguous U.S. in 2025.

It is also worth noting that climatologically, tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Basin peaks between mid-August and late October. Some forecasting groups will issue a revised forecast in early August to reflect the increased certainty in the meteorological and oceanic variables.

So, what are the major factors driving hurricane risk for this season?

Non-interfering ENSO paves the way for other factors to exert influence on the hurricane season

The seasonal forecasts reflect the combined influence of several key seasonal oceanic and atmospheric factors that typically influence intraseasonal hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, primarily the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

ENSO is currently in a neutral state, and this is likely to persist through the summer and probably into the fall, encompassing much of the hurricane season, including the historically peak season months between August and October. 

Figure 1: ENSO neutral conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of 2025 (Source: NWS/NCEP/CPC)

Average ENSO-neutral phases are considered non-interfering as they typically exhibit no strong teleconnections in the North Atlantic and typically only have a minimal influence on tropical activity in the basin. There is an outside possibility that La Niña could emerge later in the fall, which could make for a more active second half of the year, but there remains great uncertainty in that outcome at this stage.

Non-interfering ENSO-neutral phases allow for other factors to be more influential in determining the level of activity of the North Atlantic hurricane season. Heading into June, sea surface temperatures across most of the tropical and eastern portions of the subtropical North Atlantic are around 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than average, but not as warm as they were at this stage in 2024 when record warm waters were observed (1.2 degrees Celsius above average). 

Figure 2: Sea surface temperature anomalies as of May 28, 2025 (Source: NCDC/NOAA)

Most areas of the basin are forecast to experience anomalies of between -0.06°C and +0.31°C for the period covering the peak months of the hurricane season between August and October. Warmer sea surface temperatures typically result in a more active North Atlantic hurricane season owing to the increased energy available for cyclogenesis and intensification.

Current predictions from both the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS) and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) model indicate that sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic are expected to be warmer compared to the remainder of the global tropics, which supports the notion that the current positive (warm) phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMO/AMV) that began in 1995 has not ended.

With ENSO not expected to have a significant influence on activity, and warm sea surface temperature anomalies likely in the tropical North Atlantic, there is great interest this season in the West African monsoon season and the African Easterly Jet, and whether it will be favorable for tropical cyclone development—as nearly 85 percent of major hurricanes have their origins as disturbances from West Africa.

Latest precipitation forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa indicate that the monsoon season is likely to be above-average, and the axis of the heaviest rainfall will likely be further north. This would generally be supportive of above-average tropical cyclone activity, although if that axis shifts too far north, it would propagate disturbances over prohibitively cooler sea surface temperatures and hinder tropical development.

Although oceanic and atmospheric conditions are leaning towards at least an average season or more likely an above-average season, we cannot be as certain of the influence of several other sub-seasonal factors, which can modulate tropical cyclone activity on a weekly or monthly basis and are difficult to forecast at seasonal timescales.

Such factors can include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). More details on these factors, along with further information on ENSO, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and the West African monsoon season, can all be found in the report.

Moody’s RMS Event Response

Only time will tell what unfolds this season and what the final storm count will be.  From accumulation information to industry loss estimates, Moody’s RMS Event Response provides updates and insights to support customers during the season’s most impactful hurricane events.

ExposureIQ™ and Risk Modeler applications on the Moody’s Intelligent Risk Platform™ continue to put Moody’s RMS Event Response and HWind insights into customers' hands like never before, with around-the-clock automated updates every few hours.

To gain a greater understanding of the behind-the-scenes thinking on Moody’s RMS Event Response this season, check out Julie Serakos’s blog, “The science of estimating event losses.”

Throughout the season, Moody's RMS Event Response customers can keep up to date with ongoing events via the Support Center. Follow Moody’s Insurance Solutions' social media channel on LinkedIn for updates.

Download the Moody's RMS Event Response 2025 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Outlook report here.