With Exceedance 2026 soon upon us, June 1 sees us welcoming delegates from across the (re)insurance market and risk management space to Fort Lauderdale, Florida, for three days of industry insights, in-depth workshops, insightful breakout sessions, and keynote addresses by industry leaders.
At the same time (and while we are in Florida), June 1 also marks the official start of the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, and with it, a renewed focus on what the coming months may bring for insurers, reinsurers, and risk professionals.
Ahead of the full Moody’s RMS™ Event Response Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Outlook report, due for publication later in June, this blog provides an early view of what forecasts are indicating for the North Atlantic in 2026, and what matters most at this stage.
At a glance: Below-average season expected
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) is predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the North Atlantic basin this year.
NOAA’s outlook predicts a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
The NWS is forecasting a total of 8–14 named storms, of which 3–6 are forecast to become hurricanes, and 1–3 are expected to be major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). On average, the North Atlantic sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The published outlooks and forecasts from other meteorological agencies and groups are broadly in line with guidance issued by NOAA, calling for a below-average season, with some forecast ranges coming closer to average.
If NOAA’s forecast verifies, then the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season would be the first below-normal season since 2015.
It is worth noting that climatologically, tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Basin peaks between mid-August and late October. Most forecasting groups will issue a revised forecast in early August to reflect increased certainty in the meteorological and oceanic variables.
So, what are the major factors driving the forecasts this season?
Key driving factors: How strong will El Niño get?
The seasonal activity forecasts for 2026 reflect the combined influence of several key seasonal oceanic and atmospheric factors that typically influence intraseasonal hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, primarily the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon characterized by periodic fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and sea level pressure gradients across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Over a period of two to seven years, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific transition between anomalously warm (El Niño) and anomalously cool (La Niña) phases. A large portion of the uncertainty associated with seasonal hurricane activity forecasts can be attributed to uncertainty around which ENSO phase will materialize during the peak months of the hurricane season.
For this year’s hurricane season, the key driver is the expected transition from an ENSO-neutral state to a potentially moderate or stronger El Niño phase.
ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present in the equatorial Pacific, with the El Niño warmer-than-average conditions expected to emerge in the coming months (82% chance in May to July) and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (December to February).
Of note, there is an 81% chance of a moderate or stronger El Niño by the peak months of the hurricane season (August to October).
Figure 1: Expected transition of ENSO into a moderate or stronger El Niño phase by the peak months of the hurricane season (Source: NWS/NCEP/CPC)
El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific often result in increased vertical wind shear and decreased atmospheric instability in the North Atlantic Basin, especially across the Main Development Region and Caribbean Sea, which generally hinders hurricane formation, development, and intensification.
The timing and intensity of the expected shift to El Niño will both be key determining factors in shaping hurricane activity in 2026. The earlier that warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures develop in the equatorial Pacific, the sooner broader atmospheric circulation patterns across the Pacific and North Atlantic are likely to adjust, making conditions across the North Atlantic less favorable for cyclone development earlier in the season.
Likewise, the stronger the El Niño phase, the more hostile the atmospheric conditions will become across the North Atlantic. The uncertainty around the exact timing and intensity of the shift to El Niño is reflected in the preseason forecast ranges (well below-normal to near average).
The recent hurricane seasons that experienced strong or moderate El Niño phases include 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023—three of these years (2006, 2009, and 2015) produced a below-average hurricane season with few impacts in the US.
However, 2023 was notable for above-average activity and the impact of Major Hurricane Idalia in the Florida Panhandle, where locally favorable conditions in the North Atlantic drove above-average storm activity. So, while a moderate or strong El Niño generally leads to a quiet and less impactful season, landfalling hurricanes are still possible.
In the North Atlantic, sea surface temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds are likely to be weaker than average this season.
On average, temperature anomalies across the basin are currently +0.2°C, slightly cooler than at the same time in 2025, and much lower than in 2024.
Many areas are forecast to experience anomalies of +0.23°C to +0.59°C for the period covering the peak months of the hurricane season between August and October 2026.
Figure 2: Forecast sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Atlantic for the period from August to October 2026 (Source: TropicalTidbits/NMME)
These conditions would typically support a more active year; however, the consensus is that the emergence of a moderate or stronger El Niño (and its associated atmospheric impacts in the North Atlantic) could overwhelm the locally favorable North Atlantic oceanic conditions and produce a below-average season.
Nearly 85 percent of major hurricanes have their origins as synoptic-scale tropical disturbances that propagate westward from West Africa, so another factor to watch in 2026 is the axis of the heaviest rainfall from the West African monsoon and the position and strength of the resultant African Easterly Jet (AEJ).
Latest precipitation forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa indicate that monsoon precipitation is likely to shift northward and inland, with potentially above-average amounts for the whole season. This configuration would not be optimal for tropical cyclone development, as waves moving off West Africa in the far eastern tropical North Atlantic could entrain more dry air and emerge over cooler waters, both of which make development and intensification less likely.
Figure 3: Forecast precipitation standard anomaly for Africa for the period across August to October 2026, showing the reduced precipitation in West Africa and the higher-than-average rainfall further north (Source: NMME)
Although oceanic and atmospheric conditions are leaning towards a below-normal season, we cannot be as certain of the influence of several other sub-seasonal factors, which can modulate tropical cyclone activity on a weekly or monthly basis and are difficult to forecast at seasonal timescales.
Such factors can include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). More details on these factors, along with further information on ENSO, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and the West African monsoon season, will be available to read when the full Moody’s RMS™ Event Response Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Outlook report is published.
Moody’s RMS Event Response
Only time will tell what unfolds this season and what the final storm count will be. From accumulation information to industry loss estimates, Moody’s RMS Event Response will provide updates and insights to support customers during the season’s most impactful hurricane events.
ExposureIQ™ and Risk Modeler applications on the Moody’s Intelligent Risk Platform™ continue to place Moody’s RMS Event Response and Moody’s HWind insights into customers' hands like never before, with around-the-clock automated updates every few hours during an active hurricane.
Throughout the season, Moody's RMS Event Response customers can keep up to date with ongoing events via the Moody's Support Center. Follow Moody’s - Insurance Solutions' social media channel on LinkedIn for updates.
The full Moody’s RMS™ Event Response Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Outlook report —featuring detailed forecasts, historical performance analysis, and deeper insights into the drivers of this year’s activity—will be released in mid-June. Look out for our announcement on social media, Moody’s Support Center, or on moodys.com.