The Big Picture

Faced with slowing domestic growth and rising geopolitical tensions, China is changing its export strategy and selling different things, to different customers, in different places.Electric vehicles, solar panels and AI-enabled services are replacing low-cost manufactured goods. And the destination? Increasingly, emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America and beyond.China's evolving overseas footprint will have far-reaching credit consequences. From autos in Europe to metals in Latin America and clean energy infrastructure in Asia, this is a global story with local credit impact.The looming question remains: who can adapt and who will buckle under the sustained pressure?Host: Matt Robinson, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsGuest: Nick Hill, Global Head of Credit Strategy and Guidance, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:• Macroeconomics – China: Overseas investment will accelerate, with focus on select sectors and destinations 30 June 2025 (https://www.moodys.com/research/Macroeconomics-China-Overseas-investment-will-accelerate-with-focus-on-select-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1449981#d70e3c211c4b7bc1f9d60b1f483fc59e)• Trade – Asia-Pacific: US focus on origin of imports increases risks for Asia-Pacific supply chains 20 Oct 2025 (https://www.moodys.com/research/Trade-Asia-Pacific-US-focus-on-origin-of-imports-increases-risks-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1458251#290612199861c31d1036b185b4e69b75)• Geopolitical risks and China’s excess capacity expose ASEAN economies’ vulnerabilities 2 July 2025 (https://www.moodys.com/web/resources/en/us/insights/data-stories/asean-manufacturing-2025.html)• Moody’s Insights – China Growth and Credit (https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/credit-risk/emerging-markets/china.html)Listen: • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/credit-currents-moodys-ratings/id1524293080 • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6zwovuEpg7Q7mDHZMw6UJC© 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video.

Emerging markets have faced a pandemic, trade disputes and geopolitical conflict, yet many have proven surprisingly resilient.In this episode of "The Big Picture", Bill Foster speaks with Moody’s experts Atsi Sheth and Ariane Ortiz‑Bollin about what’s changed: stronger policy frameworks, deeper local markets, better buffers and sharper investor differentiation.We also discuss China’s slowdown, global fragmentation, rising debt and where credit risks — and opportunities — may emerge next.Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk, Moody's RatingsGuests: Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Nonfinancial Companies – Emerging MarketsFinancial policy is key differentiator of credit quality amid global shocks (https://www.moodys.com/research/doc--PBC_1476605?cid=web-ntrnlbnnr-20051), 07 May 2026Sovereigns – Emerging MarketsLow-rated sovereigns' credit quality is recovering but is weaker than a decade ago (https://www.moodys.com/research/Sovereigns-Emerging-Markets-Low-rated-sovereigns-credit-quality-is-recovering-but-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1475682?cid=web-ntrnlbnnr-20051), 06 May 2026Sovereigns – Emerging MarketsEarly policy reform and strong buffers support resilience to global shocks (https://www.moodys.com/research/Sovereigns-Emerging-Markets-Early-policy-reform-and-strong-buffers-support-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1476968?cid=web-ntrnlbnnr-19994), 05 May 2026Middle East Conflict – IndiaEnergy shock fuels external, inflationary and sectoral risks (https://www.moodys.com/research/Middle-East-Conflict-India-Energy-shock-fuels-external-inflationary-and-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1478794), 20 April 2026Corporates – IndonesiaPolicy uncertainty will constrain credit strength as regulatory intervention rises (https://www.moodys.com/research/Corporates-Indonesia-Policy-uncertainty-will-constrain-credit-strength-as-regulatory-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1474730), 16 April 2026Sovereigns – GlobalMiddle East shock will test sovereigns with limited credit buffers (https://www.moodys.com/research/Sovereigns-Global-Middle-East-shock-will-test-sovereigns-with-limited-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1478936), 7 April 2026Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa Macro Monitor: Financing needs will remain broadly stable in 2026 (https://www.moodys.com/research/Sovereigns-Sub-Saharan-Africa-Sub-Saharan-Africa-Macro-Monitor-Financing-needs-will-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1474873#2315a644713819472f6069ff15891fa9), 31 March 2026Global Emerging Markets Live 2026: https://events.moodys.com/2026-mie26191-global-emerging-markets-live© 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video.