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Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded

Season 2 Episode 31
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September 28, 2022

Stagflation risks rise for European emerging markets

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Olivier Chemla and Petter Bryman of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss which Central and Eastern European countries are most at risk of stagflation and how such a scenario would impact sovereign credit profiles.
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Season 2 Episode 30
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September 14, 2022

G20 emerging market growth outlook dims; Argentina, Turkiye grapple with high inflation, low monetary policy credibility

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy and Research team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the latest update to Moody’s global macroeconomic outlook, with a focus on G20 emerging markets. Plus, Kathrin Muehlbronner and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team do a deep dive into Turkiye and Argentina – two of the largest emerging markets facing extraordinarily high levels of inflation.
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Season 2 Episode 29
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August 31, 2022

Most emerging markets will avert debt crisis, but frontier markets exposed to turning credit cycle

In this episode of Moody’s Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded, Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team and Anushka Shah of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the resilience of most emerging markets to tightening financial conditions, as well as the implications for reform prospects in lower-income countries.
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Season 2 Episode 28
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August 17, 2022

Heatwaves undermine renewable energy production, utilities in Asia-Pacific and Latin America

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Ada Li and Roxana Munoz of the Infrastructure and Project Finance team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how climate change is undermining green and conventional power generation.
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Season 2 Episode 27
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August 3, 2022

Costa Rica cyberattacks highlight key risk area as emerging markets move toward digitization

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Leroy Terrelonge of the Cyber Risk team and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss rising cyber risks for emerging markets and recent attacks on Costa Rica’s government.
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Season 2 Episode 26
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July 20, 2022

Mexico and Pemex downgraded on lower economic growth prospects and increasing fiscal rigidities

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Renzo Merino of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and state-owned oil company.
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Season 2 Episode 25
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July 6, 2022

China’s zero-covid policy and property sector challenges weigh on growth, with global spillovers

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Martin Petch of the Sovereign team and Franco Leung of the Corporates team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the implications of China’s property sector stress and economic slowdown for global growth.
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Season 2 Episode 24
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June 15, 2022

Policy shifts loom as Colombia’s presidential election heads to a run-off

Analysts Renzo Merino and Nymia Almeida join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the policy proposals of the candidates vying to be Colombia’s next president and how rising social risks may lead to policy changes with important credit implications.
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Season 2 Episode 23
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June 1, 2022

Gloomy outlook for emerging market credit conditions, with some bright spots

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Thaddeus Best to discuss key takeaways from Moody’s recent Global Emerging Markets Summit. Plus, Rachel Chua of the Corporates team reveals which emerging market companies are most exposed to spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, and which stand to benefit.
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Season 2 Episode 22
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May 12, 2022

Africa, Middle East at heightened risk of social unrest; Turkey’s inflation soars

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Aurelien Mali and Kathrin Muehlbronner of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the sociopolitical ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis for the Middle East and Africa by drawing lessons from a similar global food and energy price shock in 2008. Plus, they discuss how the conflict is exacerbating an already precarious situation in Turkey.
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Season 2 Episode 21
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April 27, 2022

Frontier markets most exposed to heightened risk aversion; CIS credit quality at risk

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian de Guzman and Elisa Parisi-Capone from the Sovereign team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how Russia’s military conflict with Ukraine is affecting Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) sovereigns, as well as what stress tests on borrowing costs, exchange rates and capital flows tell us about the sovereigns most exposed to heightened risk aversion.
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Season 2 Episode 20
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April 13, 2022

Higher energy prices will delay carbon transition; Mexico’s energy policy will raise costs

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Steve Wood from the Corporates team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is affecting the global oil and gas sector, and what this means for carbon transition. Plus, Adrian Garza from the Project and Infrastructure Finance team discusses how a major policy shift in Mexico’s energy sector will delay the move to cleaner energy, weighing on the sovereign, companies and banks.
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Season 2 Episode 19
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March 30, 2022

Russia-Ukraine crisis exacerbates food price inflation; financial conditions tighten for emerging markets

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Mickael Gondrand of the Sovereign team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the credit implications of rising food prices for emerging and frontier markets. Plus, Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team discusses the reasons why emerging markets are more likely to be able to withstand tightening global financial conditions than in the past.
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Season 2 Episode 18
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March 16, 2022

CBDCs could foster financial inclusion, growth; El Salvador Bitcoin bond entails high risks 

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Olivier Chemla of the Sovereign team joins host Thaddeus Best to discuss the potential credit implications of central bank digital currencies. Plus, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team discusses the risks associated with El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender, and its upcoming Bitcoin bond issuance.
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Season 2 Episode 17
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March 3, 2022

Russia-Ukraine crisis increases global macroeconomic risks; most economies sustain less pandemic scarring

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss new risks to the global macroeconomic outlook from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Plus, David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discusses the credit implications of less economic scarring from the pandemic.
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Season 2 Episode 16
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February 16, 2022

Escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions will weigh on sovereigns, banks, with spillovers to Europe

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Evan Wohlmann and Petter Bryman of the Sovereign team, and Olga Ulyanova of the Financial Institutions team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the credit implications of rising tensions between Western countries and Russia over the latter’s military buildup on its border with Ukraine.
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Season 2 Episode 15
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February 2, 2022

Foreign direct investment decline lowers emerging markets’ growth potential

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Thaddeus Best from the Credit Strategy and Research team and Alexander Perjessy of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of the decline in foreign direct investment flows across emerging markets. Plus, they discuss how growing global commitments to carbon transition will increase credit risks for hydrocarbon-reliant sovereigns.
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Season 2 Episode 14
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January 19, 2022

Emerging markets’ climate financing falls short; deforestation in Brazil weighs on businesses

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ruosha Li from the Credit Strategy & Research team, Barbara Mattos from the Corporates team and Ana Rayes from the ESG team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the gap in emerging markets’ climate financing needs and sources, as well as the rising social and environmental risks that deforestation poses to businesses in Brazil.
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Season 2 Episode 13
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January 13, 2022

China’s economic rebalancing will reduce social risks, but transition will be bumpy

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Lillian Li from the Credit Strategy & Research team and Lina Choi from the Corporates team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss how China’s common prosperity framework and new antitrust regulations will shape the credit outlook for the sovereign and businesses.
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Season 2 Episode 12
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December 8, 2021

African sovereigns and banks will face significant challenges in 2022

Aurelien Mali of the Sovereign team and Jorge Rodriguez-Valez of the Credit Strategy team discuss the outlook for Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and African banks as they grapple with the pandemic’s lasting effect on the region’s economies.
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Season 2 Episode 11
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November 17, 2021

Emerging markets will face multispeed recovery, even as credit conditions stabilize

Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the outlook for global emerging markets, noting that while credit conditions will stabilize in 2022, high leverage, inflation and deteriorating financial conditions will increase risks for weaker countries and sectors.
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Season 2 Episode 10
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October 27, 2021

Rising commodity prices, political risk and inflation reshape LatAm credit conditions

Barbara Mattos of the Corporate Finance team and Farooq Khan of the Financial Institutions team discuss the mixed credit implications of rising commodity prices, rising inflation and political risk for companies and banks across Latin America.
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Season 2 Episode 9
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October 13, 2021

China Evergrande’s financial stress raises challenges for China’s property market and economy

Gary Lau of the Corporate Finance team and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy and Research team discuss China Evergrande’s financial troubles and the credit implications for China’s property market, banks, government and potential spillovers to the global economy.
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Season 2 Episode 8
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September 29, 2021

Social safety nets support governments; sub-sovereign governments face high social risks

Samar Maziad of the Sovereign team discusses the cost effectiveness and advantages of social safety nets when responding to shocks. Plus, Jennifer Wong of the Sub-Sovereign team explains why emerging market regional and local governments face particularly high social risks.
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Season 2 Episode 7
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September 15, 2021

Inflation risks are high for emerging markets; Islamic finance issuance steadies

Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses inflation and financial stability risks in emerging markets. Plus, Nitish Bhojnagarwala and Ashraf Madani of the Financial Institutions team talk about the outlook for Islamic finance.
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Season 2 Episode 6
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September 1, 2021

China’s path to net-zero emissions will become increasingly difficult

James Leaton of the ESG team discusses carbon transition risks for emerging markets. Plus, Nishad Majmudar of the Sovereign and Credit Strategy teams and Jack Yuan of the Sub-Sovereign team discuss China’s bold plans to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
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Season 2 Episode 5
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August 18, 2021

Emerging market banks’ asset risks rising; Mexican banks benefit from rising rates

Alka Anbarasu and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team discuss the mostly negative outlook for emerging market banking systems, while Rodrigo Marimon, also of the Financial Institutions team, explains how sticky deposit bases in Mexico will enable banks there to benefit from monetary tightening.
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Season 2 Episode 4
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August 4, 2021

Non-investment-grade sovereigns face delayed recovery; Asia-Pacific lags in vaccinations

Marie Diron of the Sovereign group discusses the outlook for non-investment-grade sovereign ratings and how they fared during the pandemic. Plus, Anushka Shah, also of the Sovereign group, examines the credit implications of lagging vaccination rates in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Season 2 Episode 3
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July 21, 2021

Credit risks for Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and banks rise; telecom sector a bright spot

Elisa Parisi-Capone from the Sovereigns team and Peter Mushangwe from the Financial Institutions team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how liquidity risks have risen for Sub-Saharan sovereigns with less-developed domestic capital markets, and the pandemic-induced asset quality deterioration of some of the largest regional banks. Also, Lisa Jaeger discusses one sector in the region experiencing growth: telecom companies.
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Season 2 Episode 2
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July 7, 2021

Corporate liquidity in Latin America is adequate; Brazil faces tough policy choices

Erick Rodriguez of the Corporates team discusses how most companies and public finance projects in Latin America managed to maintain adequate liquidity levels despite the depth of their recessions. Meanwhile, Samar Maziad of the Sovereign group dives deeper into Brazil, the region’s largest economy, to answer the most frequently asked investor questions.
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Season 2 Episode 1
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June 24, 2021

Emerging markets poised for a rocky and uneven recovery from pandemic

Deborah Tan of the Credit Strategy & Research team explains the effectiveness and risks of quantitative easing in emerging markets, while Matt Robinson of the Sovereign group discusses the uneven economic recovery ahead for emerging markets, common factors affecting lower-rated sovereigns and key metrics and trends to follow in 2022 and beyond.
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Welcome to Emerging Markets Decoded

Welcome to Emerging Markets Decoded! Co-hosted by Ariane Ortiz-Bollin and Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team, Emerging Markets Decoded delves into the latest developments impacting the credit environment for emerging market issuers across asset classes. In each episode, Moody’s analysts join Ariane and Thaddeus to explore the ramifications of global macroeconomic and financial market developments, environmental, social and governance risks and other challenges for emerging economies.
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Season 1 Episode 23
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February 17, 2021

Sovereign wealth fund drawdowns will help meet elevated funding needs across Gulf

Alexander Perjessy and Thaddeus Best of the Sovereign team discuss our forecasts for a protracted recovery of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies this year, and the unique availability of these governments to tap into sovereign wealth fund assets to plug their fiscal deficits.
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Season 1 Episode 22
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February 3, 2021

Climate risks and income inequality are prime ESG risks for EM governments

Marie Diron and Daniela Re Fraschini from the Sovereign team discuss our new environmental, social and governance (ESG) sovereign scores and how sustainability issues contribute to credit risks for emerging market countries.
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Season 1 Episode 21
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January 20, 2021

Latin America grapples with slow economic recovery, rising social demands

Jaime Reusche and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team discuss our negative credit outlook on Latin American sovereigns. Although we expect the region to broadly return to GDP growth in 2021, economic revival will take time and pressure on governments to boost spending on social programs will build in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
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Season 1 Episode 20
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January 6, 2021

Credit stress will persist in Sub-Saharan Africa amid bumpy economic recovery

Aurelien Mali and David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discuss the economic and credit implications for Sub-Saharan Africa of weaker global demand and constrained access to financing, as well as how a more diverse creditor base complicates debt negotiations and liquidity relief for countries in the region with lower credit quality.
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Season 1 Episode 19
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December 9, 2020

Social trends take hold as a driver of emerging market credit and financing

Anushka Shah of the Sovereign team discusses how the coronavirus is exacerbating income inequality across emerging Asia, which will pose challenges to governments with weak social protection systems and low capacity to raise spending. Also, Matthew Kuchtyak of the ESG team looks at the growing importance of social issues for global investors, as reflected in the recent record issuance of sustainable bonds.
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Season 1 Episode 18
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November 25, 2020

Assessing the future of China’s Belt & Road and ESG risks in emerging markets

Michael Taylor and Lillian Li of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss the rising credit strains on many emerging market countries that are part of the Belt & Road Initiative and the direction of the plan post-pandemic. Plus, analyst Nishad Majmudar talks about our analysis of ESG-related credit considerations in emerging market rating actions across sectors.
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Season 1 Episode 17
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November 16, 2020

Credit conditions will be mixed across emerging markets amid uneven COVID-19 recovery

Analysts Sarah Carlson, Eugene Tarzimanov and Carolina Chimenti discuss the 2021 credit outlook for sovereigns, banks and companies across emerging market countries. The wide-ranging effects of the coronavirus will continue to be a dominant credit theme, along with still-weak tourism prospects, low oil prices and the rollback of forbearance and fiscal support in a number of countries.
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Season 1 Episode 16
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October 28, 2020

EM government revenue is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021

Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team explains how the path to fiscal repair for many emerging market economies will likely be long and bumpy as revenue generation remains a struggle. Plus, William Foster, also of the Sovereign team, discusses whether India’s new fiscal stimulus push will be sufficient to jumpstart the country’s economy.
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Season 1 Episode 15
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October 14, 2020

China ramps up infrastructure spending to galvanize economic growth

Ivy Poon of the Infrastructure Finance team discusses how fiscal support will help offset the rise in leverage for infrastructure issuers resulting from increased capital spending on transportation, renewable energy and other projects. Also, Celina Vansetti-Hutchins of the Banking team explains what the rapid drop in Brazilian interest rates this year means for credit conditions for the country’s banks.​
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Season 1 Episode 14
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September 30, 2020

Government stress weighs on African banks; Lebanon’s economic conditions deteriorate

Constantinos Kypreos of the Banking team talks about the mounting credit strains on African banks, a reflection of the weakening financial strength of their home countries. Plus, Elisa Parisi-Capone of the Sovereign team examines the credit effects of Lebanon’s economic, financial and social crisis, as well as the potential for reforms.​
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Season 1 Episode 13
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September 16, 2020

Mexico’s job losses will cut across the economy; political risks rise in Belarus

Gersan Zurita of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the steep decline in Mexican employment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and why the road to recovery will be long. Plus, Evan Wohlmann of the Sovereign team explains how heightened political instability in Belarus is negative for the country’s sovereign credit quality.​​​
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Season 1 Episode 12
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September 2, 2020

Institutional weakness and high debt burdens are leading causes of sovereign defaults

Elena Duggar discusses the Credit Strategy & Research team’s analysis of the four main causes of sovereign bond defaults and how environmental, social and governance issues can be contributing factors. Plus, Atsi Sheth explains how increased manufacturing output and Chinese economic activity point to an incipient rebound in global trade.​​​
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Season 1 Episode 11
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August 19, 2020

Global remittances fall; sukuk issuance to rebound after first-half stumble

Christian de Guzman of the Sovereign team discusses how lower wages and the fall in employment of migrant workers in advanced economies will result in a decline in remittances to some developing economies. Also, Banking team analyst Nitish Bhojnagarwala talks about our outlook for the issuance of Islamic sukuk bonds.​
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Season 1 Episode 10
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August 5, 2020

Travel slump casts shadow over UAE property market and Macao gaming

Corporates analyst Lahlou Meksaoui discusses the credit outlook for UAE property developers. Plus, Sean Hwang, also from the Corporates team, talks about prospects for a revival of Macao's gaming sector.​​​
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Season 1 Episode 9
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July 22, 2020

Downturn in oil demand poses obstacles for Russian oil companies

Artem Frolov of the Corporates team provides insight about our cautiously optimistic view of Russian oil companies’ credit dynamics despite the adverse operating environment. Plus, Michael Higgins of the Sovereign team discusses the challenges and recovery prospects for non-investment grade emerging and frontier market sovereigns.​​
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Season 1 Episode 8
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July 8, 2020

Pandemic shines spotlight on credit challenges in Turkey

Sarah Carlson of the Sovereign team examines Turkey’s economic and credit prospects following the coronavirus shock. Plus, Merxe Tudela Carreres of the Model Development group discusses the findings of Moody’s new EM Financial Conditions Indicators series.​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 7
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June 24, 2020

Coronavirus weighs on tourism reliant EM sovereigns

David Rogovic of the Sovereigns team discusses how the global travel slump is hurting emerging market countries, particularly small island-economies with a heavy dependence on tourism revenue. Plus, Barbara Mattos of the Corporates team shares insights as to how Brazilian mining giant Vale, a bellwether for the sector, is faring after coronavirus related disruption to its operations. ​​​​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 6
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June 10, 2020

How Beijing’s policy agenda will shape China’s credit outlook

Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the prospects for economic recovery and employment stability in China as the country tries to revitalize growth following the coronavirus. Also, Kelvin Dalrymple from the Sovereign team talks about the twin shocks for East Africa of the coronavirus and a locust infestation that threatens the region’s crops.​
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Season 1 Episode 5
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May 27, 2020

G-20 debt relief plan no panacea for vulnerable emerging markets

Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team discusses a debt relief initiative for low-income countries grappling with liquidity pressures. Also, Daniela Jayesuria of the Structured Finance team offers insights on coronavirus-related debt moratoriums for individual and corporate borrowers in Latin America, one of the biggest securitization markets in emerging markets.​​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 4
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May 13, 2020

Emerging markets confront far-reaching economic challenges

Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy and Research team shares insights on how the coronavirus will likely push the global economy into recession this year, and why the downturn poses particular risks for emerging markets. Plus, Sean Marion of the Financial Institutions team discusses why credit risks are rising for South African banks.​​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 3
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April 29, 2020

Credit challenges in Mexico and worsening prospects for the Chinese property sector

Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team discuss the factors behind our recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and domestic energy giant PEMEX. Also, we get insights from Franco Leung of the Corporates team on the weaker operating environment for China’s property sector, one of the most active segments in emerging Asia debt markets.​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 2
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April 15, 2020

What the worlds largest lockdown and the coronavirus mean for India

India’s sweeping lockdown to combat the coronavirus outbreak is the largest restriction of movement the world has ever seen. In this episode, Moody’s analysts William Foster and Alka Anbarasu talk through the credit implications of containment efforts for the country’s government and banks. Analyst Gabriel Torres also joins to discuss Argentina’s economic outlook and prospects for another debt restructuring.​​​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 1
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April 1, 2020

Emerging market credit in the time of coronavirus

In this new podcast series, Moody’s experts from around the globe join host Rahul Ghosh to discuss key economic, financial and credit trends shaping emerging markets. Our first episode looks at what’s ahead for emerging market sovereigns as the coronavirus outbreak spreads and demand for oil drops. We also discuss our outlook for sustainable finance and ESG investing in emerging markets after a landmark year in 2019​​​​​.
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