Rewrite the playbook with high‑definition catastrophe models

Catastrophe risk has changed, and traditional approaches are no longer enough. Moody's RMS(TM) High-Definition (HD) Models deliver a clearer, more realistic view of risk by capturing loss behavior at far greater granularity while making uncertainty more transparent and explainable.

Built on cloud‑native architecture and delivered through Risk Modeler™ and UnderwriteIQ™, HD models help insurers assess variability, validate assumptions, and clearly explain results. This strengthens underwriting, improves portfolio decisions, and supports confident action as risk continues to evolve. 



What is high‑definition (HD) modeling? 

High‑definition catastrophe modeling represents a step change in how risk is quantified and understood.

Traditional catastrophe models rely on regional averages that can mask important differences between individual properties. HD models operate at much higher resolution, combining granular hazard with detailed exposure and vulnerability data to estimate loss at the individual location level.

This approach helps insurers see not just expected loss, but where loss comes from, how it varies across locations, and why it behaves the way it does — creating the foundation for analysis that can be trusted in real‑world insurance decisions.


What is high-definition (HD) modeling?
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Why decision-grade insights matter

As risk becomes more volatile and less predictable, insurers are rethinking long‑standing approaches to catastrophe modeling. Precision alone is no longer enough — insight must be actionable and defensible.

In catastrophe modeling, decision-grade insight means results that are:

  • Transparent, with clear assumptions and visible loss drivers 
  • Consistent, comparable across portfolios, perils, and time
  • Granular, reflecting meaningful differences between individual properties
  • Defensible, able to stand up to internal governance, regulatory review, and stakeholder scrutiny


HD modeling is designed to meet these standards, so results do not just inform decisions, they stand up to them. 

This matters as insurers face increasing loss volatility, more frequent secondary perils, growing exposure concentrations, and greater scrutiny of model-driven decisions across the organization.



How HD models work 

HD catastrophe models combine advances in science, data, and computing power to deliver a clearer, scalable view of risk.

Built to reflect how catastrophe risk behaves today

The HD modeling framework introduces advances designed to better reflect how catastrophe risk behaves in the real world. Together, these advances translate scientific realism into insight insurers can confidently apply across underwriting, portfolio management, pricing, and capital decisions.

Our HD models represent hazard event frequency by using temporal simulation analyzed across one-to-six-year periods. A temporal simulation framework makes it possible to model time dependencies such as seasonality, event clustering, and antecedent conditions while still generating familiar average annual loss (AAL) and exceedance probability metrics.

Our HD models define the damaging features of the event in high resolution (up to a one-meter grid) as well as any site conditions that could influence the impact of the event — crucial for high hazard gradient perils like flood and wildfire. This could include site characteristics like soil composition for earthquakes, ground slope for floods, and vegetation density for wildfires. 

Our HD models use four parameters to define vulnerability curves, accounting for the probability of 100% loss and zero loss. This innovative approach provides more realistic location-level losses and improved claim severity and frequency distributions.

Our HD models use a period loss table, which represents losses for each sampled event. Express cedant terms and conditions in how reinsurance contracts, such as reinstatements and aggregate covers, are structured today to better quantify the impact of temporal and aggregate contract features.


Where we help

High-Definition model portfolio




What sets Moody’s HD models apart 

Moody’s HD models are built not only to be more detailed, but to be embedded into real insurance decisions — supporting a shift in how catastrophe risk is understood, assessed, and acted upon across the insurance lifecycle.

The innovative framework underlying all Moody’s RMS™ HD Models leverages today’s exceptional computing power and advances in scientific and data analytics to deliver greater clarity, precision, and adaptability in a complex risk environment.

They stand apart through:

  • Scientifically robust modeling, grounded in rigorous hazard and vulnerability research 
  • Transparent assumptions and validation, supporting explainability and trust
  • Consistency across perils, regions, and workflows, enabling meaningful comparison
  • Connected delivery through the Moody’s Intelligent Risk Platform, linking models, data, and workflows end to end


These advanced capabilities provide insurers with actionable insights that translate into impact.

  • Improve capital allocation: Unlock greater model transparency to support strategic decisions with confidence.
  • Elevate portfolio performance: Reduce unmodeled risk by capturing wider model scope and more realistic loss behavior.
  • Reduce model uncertainty: Adapt modeling parameters to better reflect your organization’s view of risk.


Advanced analytics and AI are embedded across the framework, supporting scale, consistency, and continuous improvement—so HD models deliver insight that can be operationalized across underwriting, portfolio management, pricing, and capital decisions, not just analyzed in isolation.


Overcoming uncertainty, unlocking possibility: Introducing the Moody’s RMS™ North America Severe Convective Storm HD Models
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Apollo licenses Moody’s high-definition catastrophe models to strengthen global risk insights
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Severe convective storm risk, re-examined

Explore how AI‑derived property intelligence supports risk differentiation in the Moody’s RMS™ US Severe Convective Storm HD Model.



Built to run at scale on the Moody’s Intelligent Risk Platform™ 

Insight and transparency matter only if results can be operationalized across the business. The Moody’s RMS™ HD Models are delivered through the Moody’s Intelligent Risk Platform, which is positioned to execute at portfolio scale without compromising granularity or transparency.

The platform is designed to deliver governed data and analytics via open APIs, enabling downstream pricing, capital, and reinsurance systems to consume consistent, traceable results in‑cycle—so decisions across the organization are based on a single, trusted view of risk. 

Together, the Intelligent Risk Platform enables HD modeling to move beyond analysis and into action—supporting confident execution across underwriting, portfolio management, capital, and reinsurance decisions.

  • Risk Modeler™ helps catastrophe modeling and portfolio teams run high‑resolution analysis at scale, compare models, and support model governance.
  • UnderwriteIQ™ brings HD model insight earlier into the underwriting workflow, supporting faster, more confident decisions.
  • Shared data, models, and analytics ensure results flow seamlessly from modeling through execution, reducing friction and improving consistency across workflows.

 

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News and views

Tornado
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Overcoming uncertainty, unlocking possibility: Introducing the Moody’s RMS™ North America Severe Convective Storm HD Models
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High-definition models use advanced computing and data analytics for precise risk modeling, offering clarity and adaptability in insurance decision-making. They improve risk assessment accuracy through enhanced spatial coverage and granularity.
wildfire risk
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Australia’s bushfire reality in early 2026: Lessons from the past point toward today’s risk
With this month's bushfires in southeast Australia, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most dangerous fire seasons since the catastrophic Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20. In her blog, Iuliia Shustikova highlights that what makes 2026 stand out is not that fires are burning but how multiple large fires, aligned with extreme conditions, have crossed into areas with property exposure, and for the insurance market, the main takeaway is clear: bushfire risk remains one of Australia’s most complex and consequential natural perils.
House destroyed by the passage of a hurricane in Florida
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Five Ways Moody’s RMS™ High-Definition Modeling Helps You Manage Windstorm Risk

Between 1900 and 2021, tropical cyclone events accounted for eight of the top 10 costliest global natural disasters, with a combined insured loss of US$318 billion.

Aerial view of hurricane flooding in Louisiana
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Five ways Moody’s RMS™ High-Definition Modeling helps you understand flood risk

Flood is one of the major drivers of global insured catastrophe losses, with an estimated insured loss of US$99 billion over the last decade. However, despite the high insured loss, insurance penetration remains low: 83 percent of global economic loss from flood events is uninsured.

Aerial view of a tree-lined neighborhood in a cul-de-sac.
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Same street, different risk: How Moody’s Exposure Enrichment reveals severe convective storm blind spots
What happens when high-definition (HD) severe convective storm (SCS) modeling meets high-quality enriched exposure data? Tom Sabbatelli-Goodyer and Saffron Taylor use two examples to show the impact on modeled losses using Moody's Exposure Enrichment and Moody's RMS North America SCS HD models has on modeled average annual losses (AAL). Tom and Saffron illustrate that after using Exposure Enrichment you can move beyond a portfolio AAL, and a closer examination shows the overall portfolio change is made of many location-level AAL increases and decreases, with the more powerful opportunity arising from distinguishing between locations with decreasing or increasing losses.

FAQs


HD models operate at the property level rather than relying on broad regional averages, revealing variability and uncertainty traditional models often miss.

HD models complement existing approaches and provide deeper insight for decisions where granularity and uncertainty matter most.

Risk Modeler supports catastrophe modeling and portfolio analysis at scale, while UnderwriteIQ helps bring risk insight earlier into underwriting workflows. Both are delivered through the Moody’s Intelligent Risk Platform.

No. HD models are designed to integrate into existing workflows and are supported by cloud native applications that scale efficiently.

They are built using rigorous scientific methods, tested against observed loss experience, and continuously reviewed and updated.

Chartis RiskTech100 2026 award
Chartis RiskTech100 2026 Moody's Insurance award
Insurance ERM Americas Awards 2025 Winner Catastrophe risk
Chartis Quantitative Analytics 50 2025 #1
Insurance ERM Americas Awards 2025 Winner Stress scenarious
Chartis RiskTech AI50 2025 - Moody's AI-Driven Property Risk Analytics
Insurance ERM CRSA Awards 2025 winner UK & Europe  Economic scenario
Chartis RiskTech AI50 2025 - Moody's AI-Driven Insurance Risk Analytics
Insurance ERM CRSA Awards 2025 winner Americas Economic scenario
Insurance ERM CRSA Awards 2025 winner UK & Europe Catastrophe risk
Insurance ERM CRSA Awards 2025 winner UK & Europe IFRS 17

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